12/26 - 12-28 Winter Storm

[Stormgeek]

Taking a look through the 12z EPS members, its scary similar at this distance to how the Nov 29th - Dec 2nd storm evolved. Almost an identical track through the KC region and into IA/WI. Take a gander at this snowfall mean...that is about as juiced up as you see this model 5-7 days out.

 

C/N NE into Minny special???

Wow, is that a mean of near 12? What the heck. Obviously means close to nothing at this range, but nice to at least see something like that after this recent pattern!

[james1976]

Man that 6" mean line isn't far from me.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well that run of the GFS wasn't any better lol. Thought we were getting somewhere and its a tad more north.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.

I looked and it has 30-40 MPH winds in western NE.

[CentralNebWeather]

I looked and it has 30-40 MPH winds in western NE.

I didn’t think I was losing it. I think they must have some new mets or something as I have seen very short discos, not much in depth weather, and no real basis behind some of their forecasting lately. Thanks for your help Craig.

[gabel23]

NWS Hastings back to some weird disco. They stated all the usuals about changeover and snowfall amounts. Then said the wind should be light through the storm and just a little breezy as it departs. What? Aren’t those isobars stacked close together meaning stronger wind? Help me out if I’m totally not reading the models correctly.

With the low tracking so close to our area the winds tend to be not as bad closer to the area of low pressure. Gonna all come down to the track of the low.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM with the low in western New Mexico at 84 hours.

[Stormhunter87]

Looks like the nam has a bit more cold air running with it as well

[CentralNebWeather]

Icon with the low in Mexico again.

[Money]

Icon with the low in Mexico again.

Looks slower and colder so far through 90

[Minny_Weather]

I can definitely see dry air being a major issue with this one.

[Money]

Gfs is way north

[Money]

Looks like SPS area even gets into some mixing this run

[Money]

Gem takes the low into central NE

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow. Yeah as of now looking dismal for Omaha lincoln folks

[Stormhunter87]

CMC has some wrap around bands but yeah doesn't look good. I still think thermals are going to become something to watch. But oh well the people up north need some snow love too.

[St Paul Storm]

Brief period of rain now on the GEM as well. Still manage 12” on the GEM and 10” on the GFS but the NW trend isn’t good.

[St Paul Storm]

0z GEFS ensembles showing a lot less spread this run. Here’s the mean.

[St Paul Storm]

FV3 also now showing thermal issues here for a short while.

[St Paul Storm]

Euro definitely didn’t go NW like a few of the others tonight. 1.2” precip (snow) over the metro down to Rochester.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Definitely am liking the tick southeast. Guess everything helps right?

[james1976]

I'd ride the Euro even tho its moreless on its own

[Tom]

Major differences in the 00z Euro last night as the ULL continues to dig deeper into the 4 corners region.  This run it takes the ULL into Amarillo, TX at 1:00pm Thursday instead of SW Kansas like in previous runs.  Not only that, but we are seeing a different look which the ICON first flashed yesterday at both 18z and 00z sending 1 wave out ahead of the main system digging deep into TX and then ejects almost straight N up into the MW then GL's.  This is trending to be quite a massive storm and the 00z Euro is suggesting a Plains Blizzard with wind gusts topping 40-45 mph across KS/NE.

 

Nice bullseye for MSP....

[bud2380]

Hard to believe this storm is still about 120 hours out on the 00z runs. We’ve been talking about it forever. Obviously we’re seeing a slower onset with the Euro which seems to allow the high pressure more time to build in from the north and accounts for the further south placement on the 00z run. The NWS has stated repeatedly that these types of systems often are ejected from the SW too soon, so perhaps we’ll see an even further shift south. I wouldn’t mind seeing more parts of Iowa get some snow. I have no shot this far south though. But typically this is where the Euro starts to lock in SLP placement. I’m interested to see the 12z run.

[GDR]

Tom needs to get the magnet out!!

[St Paul Storm]

GFS, it’s shiny new upgrade and now the ICON show rain as the main precip type for a while which would significantly reduce snow accums. Glad the Euro went the other direction but it’s on it’s own.

[St Paul Storm]

Turning into a pretty small snow event here based on today’s runs so far. C NE up to W MN will do well. Looks like a rainy mess here. The 540 line is way north.

 

Edit: of course now that I say that the GEM goes a la Euro with placement of the low and is a good hit. Still much faster than the Euro though.

[bud2380]

The 12z GFS has the SLP in Clinton, IA on Thursday at 6pm. The 00z Euro has the SLP in south central Kansas at 6pm Thursday. The model spread has seemingly gotten worse with every run. They aren’t even in the same ballpark anymore. I’d stick with the Euro personally.

[Tom]

Turning into a pretty small snow event here based on today’s runs so far. C NE up to W MN will do well. Looks like a rainy mess here. The 540 line is way north.

 

Edit: of course now that I say that the GEM goes a la Euro with placement of the low and is a good hit. Still much faster than the Euro though.

Ya, 12z GFS is to fast IMO...should be a slower ejection out into the S Plains...

[CentralNebWeather]

Just got home from church. 12z Icon, yes please. Will dive into the model runs in depth now.

[CentralNebWeather]

Ya, 12z GFS is to fast IMO...should be a slower ejection out into the S Plains...

I agree Tom.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian. Holy Cow.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Canadian. Holy Cow.7BBEAA0C-A2FF-41E2-8140-74408C5950CA.png

Great run for us for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

Great run for us for sure.

Yeah, that would work great for both of us.

[Money]

Temps still look pretty awful on ggem for the twin cities area

 

34-36 when the snow is falling.

[jaster220]

Temps still look pretty awful on ggem for the twin cities area

 

34-36 when the snow is falling.

 

Another glass half empty buzz-kill post. You sure got a lock on those in this sub

[Tom]

12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios.  Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard.  Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier.  

Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios. Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard. Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier.

Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN

I am on the line. 0-16” over 30 miles. I officially would be 8-10” on this run. Was well over a foot on 0z Euro. As I’ve said, this line will continue moving back and forth over the next 3 days of runs imo.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios.  Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard.  Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier.  

 

Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN

I’ll take iffy thermals if it means a potential big dog. Thanks for posting the map, Tom.