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12/26 - 12-28 Winter Storm

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#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 05:31 AM

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This has turned into a classic April storm.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#102
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 07:24 AM

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The graphic from MPX shows the TC still in the high risk zone for heavy snow, but they also show a likely snowfall amount of only 3”. Still a nice hit on the Euro but things have really trended downhill.

#103
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 07:43 AM

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12z Icon hits Central Nebraska and has trended a little farther east. Shows western Nebraska getting 0. Those are places that NWS and Euro are painting at over a foot. Some forecast is going to miss badly if this were to verify. As I have been reading this morning, NWS offices in this region are going with the Euro. Could the Euro start a slow bump East? Should be fun to watch.

#104
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 07:52 AM

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12z Icon hits Central Nebraska and has trended a little farther east. Shows western Nebraska getting 0. Those are places that NWS and Euro are painting at over a foot. Some forecast is going to miss badly if this were to verify. As I have been reading this morning, NWS offices in this region are going with the Euro. Could the Euro start a slow bump East? Should be fun to watch.


I think the 3 or 4 of us that are in the potential path of this thing really gotta hope that the Euro is correct.
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#105
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 07:55 AM

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12z GFS won’t make very many happy. No large amounts anywhere close to this region. NWS offices have been saying that the GFS has been the outlier. Hope that is correct.

#106
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 07:59 AM

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I think the 3 or 4 of us that are in the potential path of this thing really gotta hope that the Euro is correct.


You’re right. If the King is wrong it changes a lot of plans around here that are starting to be altered from forecasts that people are seeing. Not blaming anyone, they are going with information provided.

#107
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:00 AM

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The fact that the Euro really sped up the system on the 0z run is concerning. It more closely resembled the GFS in terms of speed. The GFS was being written off as an outlier but now I’m not so sure. It might be the leader.
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#108
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:04 AM

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12z CMC looks like the Euro with the sharp edge. Gives me 4-6” and west northwest west of me 8-12”. Looks like the insane totals are slowly decreasing.

#109
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:10 AM

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The fact that the Euro really sped up the system on the 0z run is concerning. It more closely resembled the GFS in terms of speed. The GFS was being written off as an outlier but now I’m not so sure. It might be the leader.


I saw the GFS days ago with this look and wrote it off. Maybe it will prove correct and the king will have been knocked off his throne.
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#110
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 09:20 AM

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Now the FV3 gives me 14” while GFS has 0” Well that makes forecasting simple. 🤔
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#111
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 09:46 AM

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12z Euro has begun.

#112
gabel23

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:06 AM

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12z Euro has begun.


Looks like it cuts up through south central Nebraska, not good for my snow chances.

#113
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:08 AM

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Nice little tick south with the snow here on the 12z FV3.

#114
Tom

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:19 AM

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12z Euro with a rain to snow scenario across C NE, but a snow to rain switch over near the MSP area...front end thump of some decent snow, then comes the rain even all the way up to the U.P., before it switches back to snow as the low moves on by...


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#115
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:23 AM

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12z Euro with a rain to snow scenario across C NE, but a snow to rain switch over near the MSP area...front end thump of some decent snow, then comes the rain even all the way up to the U.P., before it switches back to snow as the low moves on by...


Keeps moving Northwestward. Not a fan of that. That trend was always in play. Well darn. I guess we try again with the next storm.

#116
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Looks like it cuts up through south central Nebraska, not good for my snow chances.


We are both on the line. Not looking good. Need a Christmas miracle for a 50-75 mile shift east southeast. Not holding my breath.
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#117
Stormgeek

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:43 AM

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Looks like a mess. High of 36; just gonna punt and enjoy the holidays here. See everyone after Christmas!
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#118
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Looks like a mess. High of 36; just gonna punt and enjoy the holidays here. See everyone after Christmas!


Probably the best plan. Might come down to nowcasting and radar watching with temps either side of 32.

#119
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Probably the best plan. Might come down to nowcasting and radar watching with temps either side of 32.


This. Any slight deviation in track will have big impacts on precip type. Still 2 days to go unbelievably. Seems like we’ve been tracking this thing forever.
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#120
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:10 PM

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Winter Storm Watches hoisted 45 miles west of me. NWS Hastings met in a news story says his gut tells him this storm may edge east 1-2 counties over the next couple of days. So your saying there’s a chance?
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#121
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:30 PM

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Recent NAM runs have shown a surprise couple inches for Lincoln on the backside. I'm rooting against that because that'd interfere with my flight.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#122
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:37 PM

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NAM at hour 69 with the low over Falls City Nebraska

#123
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:39 PM

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NAM gives me 6-8”. 🤔
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#124
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:42 PM

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I've written this storm off lol. While the gfs has a nice track nothing else is even supporting it.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#125
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 12:50 PM

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Ummm the 18z NAM is.....interesting. Bring it.
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#126
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 01:13 PM

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18z ICON is further east than previous runs. That secondary piece really ramps up and slams the metro. Great track thru K.C. and eastern IA. Very little rain with the first wave.

#127
gosaints

Posted 24 December 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Ummm the 18z NAM is.....interesting. Bring it.


I wouldn't write a thing off if I were you....
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#128
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 December 2018 - 01:20 PM

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Wow!

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#129
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 01:58 PM

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Another step in the right direction on the GFS. Another model with a SE tick.

#130
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 02:20 PM

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Wow the Icon misses Central Nebraska.

#131
jaster220

Posted 24 December 2018 - 03:38 PM

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Model madness? What model madness? I see extreme consistency everywhere I look -The Mitt is a swimmin' :P

 

Enjoy your storm out there..


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#132
jcwxguy

Posted 24 December 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Icon has to be one of the worst performing model although jma has similar location for low

#133
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:02 PM

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0z GFS went way back northwest of where it had been so no longer the outlier. About to stick a fork in this one for my area. Wouldn’t it be something if tonight the Euro comes way southeast. Then I guess I pull the fork back out. 😃
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#134
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:10 PM

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Just looked at my forecast from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night. Snow then freezing rain then sleet then a mix then rain then possible thunderstorms all before 5pm. Then rain to a mix to snow to possibly heavier snow with blowing and some drifting. That should be a fun day.
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#135
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:22 PM

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Another step in the right direction on the GFS. Another model with a SE tick.

Not sure what SE tick you are seeing, it went back northwest.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#136
jcwxguy

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:26 PM

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Not sure what SE tick you are seeing, it went back northwest.

maybe 18z

#137
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:31 PM

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The one thing I could see throwing a wrench in this system again like the last one is for severe thunderstorms to rob moisture on the cold side of the low. 


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#138
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:32 PM

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The one thing I could see throwing a wrench in this system again like the last one is for severe thunderstorms to rob moisture on the cold side of the low.


The last storm where dry air didn't kill it at some point was the 2012 bomb. Dry air is always a problem with any system that hits Eastern Nebraska. At least nowadays.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#139
jcwxguy

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:38 PM

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Fv3 similar to 18z at hr 60

#140
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:44 PM

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Thinking this system throws a few surprises like the last one.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#141
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 08:44 PM

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Not sure what SE tick you are seeing, it went back northwest.


18z. You’re quoting my post 6 hours after the fact. 0z went back NW. We’re both getting 0”.

#142
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 December 2018 - 09:15 PM

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Now 0.5” to 0.75” of rain in the point for Thursday. We’ve officially hit bottom with this.

#143
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 December 2018 - 09:42 PM

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18z. You’re quoting my post 6 hours after the fact. 0z went back NW. We’re both getting 0”.

woops lol.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#144
Money

Posted 24 December 2018 - 09:45 PM

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What a great winter so far

#145
gimmesnow

Posted 24 December 2018 - 10:23 PM

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This storm might even be enough to shut down my ski hill for the new years! Awesome! Three years in a row for my hill to have a horrible Christmas season! Wilmot had to sell after just one bad Christmas season.

 

I can't wait for some giant corporation to buy my ski hill and ruin it from being a nice family owned place. A rainer like this is the absolute worst outcome I could have hoped for. I would have been perfectly fine with absolutely zero precip and 30s or 40s.

 

Warn and rain around Christmas and New Years is extremely bad for a lot of businesses up here in Wisconsin. It's a real bummer to see this happening. Granite Peak isn't even 100% open yet, Wilmot didn't open until mid December.

 

I have a bad feeling that the ski seasons are going to be shorter next year, no one making any effort until mid December no matter the weather, and then winding down after president's day in february.


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#146
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 11:22 PM

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Euro stays far northwest. Well time to move ahead I guess. Very disappointing.

#147
GDR

Posted 25 December 2018 - 07:14 AM

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We need to build a tundra up north so we can have another winter of 78!!
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#148
Tom

Posted 25 December 2018 - 07:42 AM

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We need to build a tundra up north so we can have another winter of 78!!


You got it...
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#149
james1976

Posted 25 December 2018 - 08:56 AM

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Seems like you guys have been tracking this thing forever. Feel bad for y'all but I guess that glacier needs to be built up north first.


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#150
jaster220

Posted 25 December 2018 - 09:03 AM

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Seems like you guys have been tracking this thing forever. Feel bad for y'all but I guess that glacier needs to be built up north first.

 

Same. Horrid timing as well. Hopefully, something comes along to make up for it.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."