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January 2019 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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I know right now things are looking pretty grim down the road. Because, well, they are. After a brief "cold snap" to start the new year, we look to return to a mild & dry pattern, although potentially less dry than we've experienced in December. However, there is a potential light at the end of the tunnel. The MJO looks to move to phase 7, which could change the boring pattern positively around the middle of the month. For now though, we'll all need to be patient as we see just how much the MJO affects our weather.

IMG_20181226_130458.jpg

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I know almost nothing about the MJO, but a quick look online suggests that an MJO in phase 7 or 8 correlates with above normal temps in the Plains, Midwest and Lakes. No?

The exact opposite is true. We're below average at phases 7, 8, & 1. We're at 5 right now, which is warm for us. At 7 & 8, we're above average in precip.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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My neighbor just returned from San Antonio and said it was more like swimming than driving.

When these showers hit, it just opens up and pours!

 

Front is currently passing through DFW area.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I know almost nothing about the MJO, but a quick look online suggests that an MJO in phase 7 or 8 correlates with above normal temps in the Plains, Midwest and Lakes. No? 

 

MJO effects are dependent on the month/season. The same quadrant can have opposite outcomes in summer vs winter. As LNK noted, during the winter months generally phases 3,4 are worst (just came thru those), phase 5 begins to allow some cold and snow in the northern portions of the E Conus (happening as we speak) and phases 6 to 7 improve those chances for all of our sub-forum to see action. In the heart of winter, phases 8-1-2 spell brutal Barny rampage cold and could also spell suppression of the main storm track to the S and/or East Coast. Hope this helps.

 

This is a 6 weeks mean from the 17.0z Euro showing a much better chance for snow further south in the CONUS

 

20181217 Euro Snowfall mean next 6 wks.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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MJO effects are dependent on the month/season. The same quadrant can have opposite outcomes in summer vs winter. As LNK noted, during the winter months generally phases 3,4 are worst (just came thru those), phase 5 begins to allow some cold and snow in the northern portions of the E Conus (happening as we speak) and phases 6 to 7 improve those chances for all of our sub-forum to see action. In the heart of winter, phases 8-1-2 spell brutal Barny rampage cold and could also spell suppression of the main storm track to the S and/or East Coast. Hope this helps.

 

This is a 6 weeks mean from the 17.0z Euro showing a much better chance for snow further south in the CONUS

 

attachicon.gif20181217 Euro Snowfall mean next 6 wks.png

Sweet....lets hope it verifies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At least we will have colder, to much colder temps in January, whereas, in December, we had frequent warm-ups and plenty of rainstorms. December had some cold days, but bare ground.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@ LNK, thanks for starting this thread...hope your safe and enjoying your stay down there in TX.  Have a safe trip back home later today.  Might be a bump ride up through the Plains as your prob going to hit some pockets of turbulence as jet is roaring over TX/OK.

 

Meantime, models have suddenly trended much more favorable in the medium and extended range as winter is setting its comeback to open the New Year.  Who said this pattern is terrible again??  Have faith in the LRC and all the other timely variables that are coming into play.  Taking a look at the latest JMA Weeklies they certainly flipped from the torchy look they were suggesting last week and I believe all the models were having a difficult time esp amidst a SSW event.  The model is now more in-line with the idea that January will open up on a colder and more active note, esp near the GL's region heading into the first week of January.  The pattern then shifts into a more broad based cold look and active pattern across our sub heading into the middle of the month which fits the LRC and BSR quite well.

 

Take a look at the amplifying pattern Week 2 and the high lat blocking developing Weeks 3-4 which really begins to show up as the effects of the SSW event propagate downward.

 

Week 2 temps... some warmth tries to surge in across the Plains/Upper MW...I'd look for a clipper or two to hit the region during the Week 2 period.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201812.D2612_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...cold comes back and it turns wet across the Plains and MW/GL's....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201812.D2612_gl0.png

 

 

The Aleutian Low takes hold Week 2-4 across the N PAC which really sets the stage for Ol' Man Winters comeback this month.  The 30 day mean shows up really well at 500mb...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201812.D2612_gl0.png

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Phased systems are probably the hardest for models to predict and everything timing wise has to come together to make it work but something to track at least for a few days

Yep, and a phased system would hopefully draw in colder air to expand the snow shield as well as making it a stronger storm.. As it looks now, plenty of moisture is available to make it an interesting system to watch.

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Tom, is the FV3 GFS hinting at the return of the central plains blizzard part of the pattern on the 10th and 11th? That would line up well with late Nov (24th.)

IMO, I think that system will be a few more days later centered around the 15th or so and the BSR lines up around those dates as well.

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Tonight's Euro Weeklies are looking even better than last week's run.  Steady as she goes...this month is going to be fun with rounds of severe cold on the table from Jan 15th - 30th across the central CONUS.  I don't think I've seen a colder run on the model for it's Week 3-4 period.  The mid-month SER signal is still showing up which leads us towards a very active period where I'm expecting a couple big storms Jan 15th-18th and about 5 days later. The LRC and BSR long range forecasting tools are showing up on the Euro Weeklies quite well. 

 

IMO, I think the model is "seeing" a glacier being built right where it's been the coldest during the heart of the LRC in Oct/Nov.  I've seen some posts by JB comparing some of the coldest analog year's during Oct & Nov which centered the coldest anomalies a bit farther east than during Oct & Nov this year.  Coincidentally, those year's the coldest anomalies for JFM where farther east than I think this year will end up being.  The amount of high lat blocking and nearly perfect 500mb pattern for this entire month going forward is beautiful site to see.  Gear up, for what I feel like will be one heckova ride.

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One of the better tools I use for predicting where troughs or storms will track in the longer range is by looking at the models 10mb/50mb forecasts in the longer range as I believe they provide valuable clues.  With that being said, after all the years of watching and studying modeling behaviour, I find they predict the higher levels of the atmosphere a lot better than the 500mb levels in the medium and longer range.  With that in mind, both the Euro and GEFS are starting to hone in on the jet cutting underneath the blocking across Canada once we get into Week 2 (around the 8th or so) of Jan. 

 

Notice where the GEFS are suggesting the deepest negative anamolies as this will lead me to believe more storms developing across the Rockies/Plains during this period.  Once that jet breaks underneath, the pattern will get quite active around the middle of the month.  Mind you, the longer range pattern is all lining up towards the LRC and BSR.  Look at how both the post Christmas storm and now the New Year's storm potential have all lined up???  I don't feel like I'm just throwing stuff out there and hoping it would stick.  Trying to do my best here and provide some value.

 

Lastly, look at that 10mb height pattern off the 00z GEFS...this is a clear signal we will see PAC storms coming out of the Rockies around this period.  Notice that slight ridge across FL...doesn't that look familiar???  It should, because this is where the SER flexes during most of this year's LRC cycle.

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_24.png

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_31.png

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After the New Year's system and the spike in the AO, the Euro is suggesting only a brief spike in temps late Thu into Friday on the Euro, before temps crash back sub freezing for Sat across the Dakotas/MN/WI as a new surge of cold air plunges south.  The next system on deck will be a PAC wave coming into the PAC NW/ N Rockies on the 6th/7th which may try to dig into the Plains/MW around the 7th/8th.  Lot's of action on the table and I believe this period is when it all starts where most folks on this sub will be tracking systems.

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Pretty remarkable agreement on all the global models Day 11-15 suggesting a beauty of a "Split Flow" across the E PAC/NW NAMER.  Raging central PAC jet splits up across the E PAC, with a jet cutting into the west coast.  Watch for the ensembles/op runs turn wetter around the 8th/10th in the Plains.

 

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_46.png

 

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_61.png

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The first 2 weeks of January here in my area look dry and cold. Half of Jan by then will be gone. Unless we get a surprise snowstorm or 2 outta nowhere, this is turning out to be a very snowless Winter. February is not that far off.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The first 2 weeks of January here in my area look dry and cold. Half of Jan by then will be gone. Unless we get a surprise snowstorm or 2 outta nowhere, this is turning out to be a very snowless Winter. February is not that far off.

 

Yup models suck.  El Nino in control.  LP of Michigan looks ripe for flurries when cold, then big warm ups with rain.  Rinse and repeat.  

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Yup models suck.  El Nino in control.  LP of Michigan looks ripe for flurries when cold, then big warm ups with rain.  Rinse and repeat.  

Indeed. Watch us get a huge snowstorm in March and then, Spring arrives in full force. Typically, thats how El Nino patterns work tbh.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently 39* Dry

Winds 6mph, gusting up to 20-25mph.

Low tonight 31*

 

Clear and Blindingly Bright!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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NOAA:

 

High pressure will
expand into the Great Lakes during the midweek with quasi-zonal flow
aloft, leading to mostly quiet conditions for SE Michigan.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Current conditions, mostly sunny and very mild w temps at 56F. Its beautiful outside. Might as well enjoy it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The FV3-GFS is a disaster till middle of January. UGH! It has a roaring pacific flow. No polar air. Huge ridge.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The FV3-GFS is a disaster till middle of January. UGH! It has a roaring pacific flow. No polar air. Huge ridge.

 

Yup models suck.  El Nino in control.  LP of Michigan looks ripe for flurries when cold, then big warm ups with rain.  Rinse and repeat.  

 

At least for the time being, this is very '11-12 with the SSWE going into Siberia. The caveat is that unlike that winter (when true cold never got here) there's actually decent cold just north in Canada and thus this blizzard that just happened. Can't throw the towel in yet fellas, tho it's not looking like LES will be dominant this winter. Better chances with actual system snows.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Current conditions, mostly sunny and very mild w temps at 56F. Its beautiful outside. Might as well enjoy it.

Chillier in Texas, but very much the same.

I'm sure winter will arrive, when's the question.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I hope those who have already given up on winter...I want to remind you, this isn't a '16/'17 or '15/'16 redux. Take a deep breath and give this season a real chance. The pattern that has set up this Autumn, IMO, has a ton of potential still on the table. We are not even half way through Winter, heck, I'd say we are still in the 3rd inning of a baseball game. Sure, the brown Christmas has left most of us in a Christmas "hangover" and the near miss with the post Christmas Blizzard may have hurt some even more. Coming from a big snow lover, I feel your pain but all we can do is move forward.

 

On a brighter note, the pattern is cycling and the New Year's system is trending in the right direction on the more trusted models and I think it will brighten up the mood, esp those up in Wisco and IA. Let's not forget, the northern stream will prob lay down a decent snow across MN enhancing their snow pack a bit.

 

Last night's 00z EPS continues to trend towards the storm system I'm eye balling around the (7th-9th) across the Plains states which will have a more west/east storm track. When you look at last nights 00z GEFS 500mb during this period you would think it would be a warm pattern...right??? Not so fast, bc as JB says, we don't live at 500mb and during the Winter, you look at the pressure pattern and it is showing HP right over...guess where, the fresh snow pack across the Dakotas and points north into Canada which should seed "cold" into the pattern.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

 

This has a direct connection to arctic air...IMO, look for models to trend cooler around the 8th-10th across the Plains.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_45.png

 

 

 

Finally, once we approach this period, the effects of the SSW event will begin to take shape and that is when I believe the cold will really infiltrate our wx pattern during the heart of Winter when normal temps are at their lowest point in the season around the middle of the month. The STJ is going to be primed and churning up when it continues to ramp up towards the height of the season which typically peaks sometime in early Feb. Hang in there winter wx fans, we are poised to see what this season really has in store for many of us even though December has left a lot of us snow less.

.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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