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January 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#1
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:05 AM

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I know right now things are looking pretty grim down the road. Because, well, they are. After a brief "cold snap" to start the new year, we look to return to a mild & dry pattern, although potentially less dry than we've experienced in December. However, there is a potential light at the end of the tunnel. The MJO looks to move to phase 7, which could change the boring pattern positively around the middle of the month. For now though, we'll all need to be patient as we see just how much the MJO affects our weather.

Attached Files


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2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#2
Madtown

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:41 AM

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keep pushing that pattern change on down the road.

#3
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:43 AM

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keep pushing that pattern change on down the road.


If there's going to be a pattern change, it's going to happen in a few weeks. Not saying there will be one, but this is the best potential.

2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#4
someweatherdude

Posted 26 December 2018 - 11:50 AM

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I know almost nothing about the MJO, but a quick look online suggests that an MJO in phase 7 or 8 correlates with above normal temps in the Plains, Midwest and Lakes. No? 



#5
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 December 2018 - 12:09 PM

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I know almost nothing about the MJO, but a quick look online suggests that an MJO in phase 7 or 8 correlates with above normal temps in the Plains, Midwest and Lakes. No?


The exact opposite is true. We're below average at phases 7, 8, & 1. We're at 5 right now, which is warm for us. At 7 & 8, we're above average in precip.

2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#6
someweatherdude

Posted 26 December 2018 - 12:15 PM

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The exact opposite is true. We're below average at phases 7, 8, & 1. We're at 5 right now, which is warm for us. At 7 & 8, we're above average in precip.

Hmm.  This is what I looked at.

  http://www.cpc.ncep....bined_image.png



#7
Stormhunter87

Posted 26 December 2018 - 05:16 PM

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Almost done with Christmas travels, hopefully we get some good storms in the future. It definitely looks boring but hopefully that changes.

#8
GDR

Posted 26 December 2018 - 05:57 PM

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Attached File  3D05DAA5-198B-47C9-8B52-417459E7BE3A.png   968.31KB   0 downloads

#9
Andie

Posted 26 December 2018 - 05:58 PM

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My neighbor just returned from San Antonio and said it was more like swimming than driving.
When these showers hit, it just opens up and pours!

Front is currently passing through DFW area.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#10
jaster220

Posted 26 December 2018 - 06:05 PM

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I know almost nothing about the MJO, but a quick look online suggests that an MJO in phase 7 or 8 correlates with above normal temps in the Plains, Midwest and Lakes. No? 

 

MJO effects are dependent on the month/season. The same quadrant can have opposite outcomes in summer vs winter. As LNK noted, during the winter months generally phases 3,4 are worst (just came thru those), phase 5 begins to allow some cold and snow in the northern portions of the E Conus (happening as we speak) and phases 6 to 7 improve those chances for all of our sub-forum to see action. In the heart of winter, phases 8-1-2 spell brutal Barny rampage cold and could also spell suppression of the main storm track to the S and/or East Coast. Hope this helps.

 

This is a 6 weeks mean from the 17.0z Euro showing a much better chance for snow further south in the CONUS

 

Attached File  20181217 Euro Snowfall mean next 6 wks.png   334.73KB   4 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#11
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 08:01 PM

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MJO effects are dependent on the month/season. The same quadrant can have opposite outcomes in summer vs winter. As LNK noted, during the winter months generally phases 3,4 are worst (just came thru those), phase 5 begins to allow some cold and snow in the northern portions of the E Conus (happening as we speak) and phases 6 to 7 improve those chances for all of our sub-forum to see action. In the heart of winter, phases 8-1-2 spell brutal Barny rampage cold and could also spell suppression of the main storm track to the S and/or East Coast. Hope this helps.

 

This is a 6 weeks mean from the 17.0z Euro showing a much better chance for snow further south in the CONUS

 

attachicon.gif20181217 Euro Snowfall mean next 6 wks.png

Sweet....lets hope it verifies.


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#12
Niko

Posted 26 December 2018 - 08:03 PM

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At least we will have colder, to much colder temps in January, whereas, in December, we had frequent warm-ups and plenty of rainstorms. December had some cold days, but bare ground.



#13
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:11 AM

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@ LNK, thanks for starting this thread...hope your safe and enjoying your stay down there in TX.  Have a safe trip back home later today.  Might be a bump ride up through the Plains as your prob going to hit some pockets of turbulence as jet is roaring over TX/OK.

 

Meantime, models have suddenly trended much more favorable in the medium and extended range as winter is setting its comeback to open the New Year.  Who said this pattern is terrible again??  Have faith in the LRC and all the other timely variables that are coming into play.  Taking a look at the latest JMA Weeklies they certainly flipped from the torchy look they were suggesting last week and I believe all the models were having a difficult time esp amidst a SSW event.  The model is now more in-line with the idea that January will open up on a colder and more active note, esp near the GL's region heading into the first week of January.  The pattern then shifts into a more broad based cold look and active pattern across our sub heading into the middle of the month which fits the LRC and BSR quite well.

 

Take a look at the amplifying pattern Week 2 and the high lat blocking developing Weeks 3-4 which really begins to show up as the effects of the SSW event propagate downward.

 

Week 2 temps... some warmth tries to surge in across the Plains/Upper MW...I'd look for a clipper or two to hit the region during the Week 2 period.

 

Y201812.D2612_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...cold comes back and it turns wet across the Plains and MW/GL's....

 

Y201812.D2612_gl0.png

 

 

The Aleutian Low takes hold Week 2-4 across the N PAC which really sets the stage for Ol' Man Winters comeback this month.  The 30 day mean shows up really well at 500mb...

 

Y201812.D2612_gl0.png


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#14
Clinton

Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:24 AM

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Tom, is the FV3 GFS hinting at the return of the central plains blizzard part of the pattern on the 10th and 11th? That would line up well with late Nov (24th.)



#15
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 06:34 AM

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There’s a couple big time hits for WI/IA on the gfs ensembles for the new year period

#16
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 06:38 AM

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NAM at the end of the run looks interesting with a lot of moisture in the south, 999 L just east of Colorado and a clipper system just north of here
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#17
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:00 AM

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Phased systems are probably the hardest for models to predict and everything timing wise has to come together to make it work but something to track at least for a few days

#18
Tony

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:10 AM

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Phased systems are probably the hardest for models to predict and everything timing wise has to come together to make it work but something to track at least for a few days

Yep, and a phased system would hopefully draw in colder air to expand the snow shield as well as making it a stronger storm.. As it looks now, plenty of moisture is available to make it an interesting system to watch.



#19
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:10 AM

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Tom, is the FV3 GFS hinting at the return of the central plains blizzard part of the pattern on the 10th and 11th? That would line up well with late Nov (24th.)

IMO, I think that system will be a few more days later centered around the 15th or so and the BSR lines up around those dates as well.


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#20
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:13 AM

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Nice way to welcome in the New Year, ay???  Near 0F for a high at MSP...then overnight subzero mid 20F's???  The "Nanook From the North" is heading your way.

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png

 

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_25.png


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#21
gimmesnow

Posted 27 December 2018 - 03:05 PM

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With this cold they can fix the snow. But the damage is already done, ski hill closed today during busiest time of the season for them. Hopefully we get a solid january and february, and they can make it up on president's day and mlk day.

 

At least I won't be screwed.


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#22
someweatherdude

Posted 27 December 2018 - 03:22 PM

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Left work early to go to the movies with my kids this afternoon. It was 58 degrees when we went in. 39 when we came out.

#23
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:12 PM

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Tonight's Euro Weeklies are looking even better than last week's run.  Steady as she goes...this month is going to be fun with rounds of severe cold on the table from Jan 15th - 30th across the central CONUS.  I don't think I've seen a colder run on the model for it's Week 3-4 period.  The mid-month SER signal is still showing up which leads us towards a very active period where I'm expecting a couple big storms Jan 15th-18th and about 5 days later. The LRC and BSR long range forecasting tools are showing up on the Euro Weeklies quite well. 

 

IMO, I think the model is "seeing" a glacier being built right where it's been the coldest during the heart of the LRC in Oct/Nov.  I've seen some posts by JB comparing some of the coldest analog year's during Oct & Nov which centered the coldest anomalies a bit farther east than during Oct & Nov this year.  Coincidentally, those year's the coldest anomalies for JFM where farther east than I think this year will end up being.  The amount of high lat blocking and nearly perfect 500mb pattern for this entire month going forward is beautiful site to see.  Gear up, for what I feel like will be one heckova ride.



#24
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:30 PM

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back to the yawn fest  ( for at  least a week) we have come to get used to after the NYE potential system.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#25
Tom

Posted 28 December 2018 - 04:59 AM

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One of the better tools I use for predicting where troughs or storms will track in the longer range is by looking at the models 10mb/50mb forecasts in the longer range as I believe they provide valuable clues.  With that being said, after all the years of watching and studying modeling behaviour, I find they predict the higher levels of the atmosphere a lot better than the 500mb levels in the medium and longer range.  With that in mind, both the Euro and GEFS are starting to hone in on the jet cutting underneath the blocking across Canada once we get into Week 2 (around the 8th or so) of Jan. 

 

Notice where the GEFS are suggesting the deepest negative anamolies as this will lead me to believe more storms developing across the Rockies/Plains during this period.  Once that jet breaks underneath, the pattern will get quite active around the middle of the month.  Mind you, the longer range pattern is all lining up towards the LRC and BSR.  Look at how both the post Christmas storm and now the New Year's storm potential have all lined up???  I don't feel like I'm just throwing stuff out there and hoping it would stick.  Trying to do my best here and provide some value.

 

Lastly, look at that 10mb height pattern off the 00z GEFS...this is a clear signal we will see PAC storms coming out of the Rockies around this period.  Notice that slight ridge across FL...doesn't that look familiar???  It should, because this is where the SER flexes during most of this year's LRC cycle.

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_24.png

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_31.png


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#26
Tom

Posted 28 December 2018 - 05:24 AM

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After the New Year's system and the spike in the AO, the Euro is suggesting only a brief spike in temps late Thu into Friday on the Euro, before temps crash back sub freezing for Sat across the Dakotas/MN/WI as a new surge of cold air plunges south.  The next system on deck will be a PAC wave coming into the PAC NW/ N Rockies on the 6th/7th which may try to dig into the Plains/MW around the 7th/8th.  Lot's of action on the table and I believe this period is when it all starts where most folks on this sub will be tracking systems.



#27
Tom

Posted 28 December 2018 - 05:31 AM

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Pretty remarkable agreement on all the global models Day 11-15 suggesting a beauty of a "Split Flow" across the E PAC/NW NAMER.  Raging central PAC jet splits up across the E PAC, with a jet cutting into the west coast.  Watch for the ensembles/op runs turn wetter around the 8th/10th in the Plains.

 

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_46.png

 

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_61.png


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#28
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 06:28 AM

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The first 2 weeks of January here in my area look dry and cold. Half of Jan by then will be gone. Unless we get a surprise snowstorm or 2 outta nowhere, this is turning out to be a very snowless Winter. February is not that far off.



#29
Stacsh

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:25 AM

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The first 2 weeks of January here in my area look dry and cold. Half of Jan by then will be gone. Unless we get a surprise snowstorm or 2 outta nowhere, this is turning out to be a very snowless Winter. February is not that far off.

 

Yup models suck.  El Nino in control.  LP of Michigan looks ripe for flurries when cold, then big warm ups with rain.  Rinse and repeat.  



#30
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:28 AM

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Yup models suck.  El Nino in control.  LP of Michigan looks ripe for flurries when cold, then big warm ups with rain.  Rinse and repeat.  

Indeed. Watch us get a huge snowstorm in March and then, Spring arrives in full force. Typically, thats how El Nino patterns work tbh.



#31
Andie

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:11 AM

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Currently 39* Dry
Winds 6mph, gusting up to 20-25mph.
Low tonight 31*

Clear and Blindingly Bright!
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#32
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 12:54 PM

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NOAA:

 

High pressure will
expand into the Great Lakes during the midweek with quasi-zonal flow
aloft, leading to mostly quiet conditions for SE Michigan.



#33
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 01:00 PM

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Current conditions, mostly sunny and very mild w temps at 56F. Its beautiful outside. Might as well enjoy it.


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#34
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 01:45 PM

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The FV3-GFS is a disaster till middle of January. UGH! It has a roaring pacific flow. No polar air. Huge ridge.



#35
jaster220

Posted 28 December 2018 - 03:41 PM

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The FV3-GFS is a disaster till middle of January. UGH! It has a roaring pacific flow. No polar air. Huge ridge.

 

Yup models suck.  El Nino in control.  LP of Michigan looks ripe for flurries when cold, then big warm ups with rain.  Rinse and repeat.  

 

At least for the time being, this is very '11-12 with the SSWE going into Siberia. The caveat is that unlike that winter (when true cold never got here) there's actually decent cold just north in Canada and thus this blizzard that just happened. Can't throw the towel in yet fellas, tho it's not looking like LES will be dominant this winter. Better chances with actual system snows.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#36
Andie

Posted 28 December 2018 - 04:23 PM

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Current conditions, mostly sunny and very mild w temps at 56F. Its beautiful outside. Might as well enjoy it.

Chillier in Texas, but very much the same.
I'm sure winter will arrive, when's the question.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#37
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 03:46 AM

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Chillier in Texas, but very much the same.
I'm sure winter will arrive, when's the question.

You'll like the 00z Euro as its showing a snowstorm for your area next Wed/Thu (3-7")...cold ULL tracks right through the area....



#38
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 04:28 AM

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I hope those who have already given up on winter...I want to remind you, this isn't a '16/'17 or '15/'16 redux. Take a deep breath and give this season a real chance. The pattern that has set up this Autumn, IMO, has a ton of potential still on the table. We are not even half way through Winter, heck, I'd say we are still in the 3rd inning of a baseball game. Sure, the brown Christmas has left most of us in a Christmas "hangover" and the near miss with the post Christmas Blizzard may have hurt some even more. Coming from a big snow lover, I feel your pain but all we can do is move forward.

On a brighter note, the pattern is cycling and the New Year's system is trending in the right direction on the more trusted models and I think it will brighten up the mood, esp those up in Wisco and IA. Let's not forget, the northern stream will prob lay down a decent snow across MN enhancing their snow pack a bit.

Last night's 00z EPS continues to trend towards the storm system I'm eye balling around the (7th-9th) across the Plains states which will have a more west/east storm track. When you look at last nights 00z GEFS 500mb during this period you would think it would be a warm pattern...right??? Not so fast, bc as JB says, we don't live at 500mb and during the Winter, you look at the pressure pattern and it is showing HP right over...guess where, the fresh snow pack across the Dakotas and points north into Canada which should seed "cold" into the pattern.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

This has a direct connection to arctic air...IMO, look for models to trend cooler around the 8th-10th across the Plains.

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_45.png



Finally, once we approach this period, the effects of the SSW event will begin to take shape and that is when I believe the cold will really infiltrate our wx pattern during the heart of Winter when normal temps are at their lowest point in the season around the middle of the month. The STJ is going to be primed and churning up when it continues to ramp up towards the height of the season which typically peaks sometime in early Feb. Hang in there winter wx fans, we are poised to see what this season really has in store for many of us even though December has left a lot of us snow less.
.
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#39
Andie

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:50 AM

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Even the almanac can't agree on winter.
https://www.wsj.com/...ead-11545929300

Attached File  IMG_3514.JPG   117.97KB   0 downloads

Attached File  IMG_3513.JPG   111.79KB   0 downloads
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#40
Niko

Posted 29 December 2018 - 08:00 AM

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:lol:



#41
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 08:46 AM

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12z GFS flashing the next storm on the calendar (7th-9th)....let's see if the other models pick up on it....nice looking west/east spread the wealth which I commented on earlier this morning.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png


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#42
westMJim

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:27 AM

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I do not watch FOX 17 weather but I came across this on CNN

 

https://www.cnn.com/...an-orig-mss.cnn


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#43
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Nice to see the 12z FV3-GFS also flashing a strong PAC wave diving down out the Rockies and digging into the Plains on the 7th.  Let the model watching continue folks...


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#44
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 29 December 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Finally some hope at the end of the tunnel as we head into the second week of january.


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#45
Stormhunter87

Posted 29 December 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Looking crazy active week two and beyond but the models keep dumping warm air into the equation. :(

#46
Niko

Posted 29 December 2018 - 05:28 PM

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I think January will be a betta month for snowfall and colder temps to go w it as well.


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#47
Stormhunter87

Posted 29 December 2018 - 05:34 PM

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I think January will be a betta month for snowfall and colder temps to go w it as well.


Certainly hope so. Although I don't have much room to complain because we have gotten some snow love.
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#48
GDR

Posted 30 December 2018 - 09:56 AM

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Looks like a good pattern change around the middle of the third week

#49
Stacsh

Posted 30 December 2018 - 10:02 AM

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I think January will be a betta month for snowfall and colder temps to go w it as well.


Not looking great through mid-month.

#50
Niko

Posted 30 December 2018 - 10:10 AM

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Not looking great through mid-month.

I agree. Quiet weather. Hopefully, by mid month things get cranking cuz February will be here b4 ya know it.


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