January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[hlcater]

Euro definitely has that system next weekend. Except it is way amped and way farther north than the other models.

[Grizzcoat]

06GFS= real winter for many.

[Tom]

06GFS= real winter for many.

Grizz, if you look at the 00z EPS snow mean over the next 2 weeks, this pattern is as juiced as I've ever seen it and gives me flashbacks of the snow Blitz in early Feb last year but this time it may be more widespread with systems after systems through the end of the month.  I'm not exaggerating, but somebody in the MW is going to get hammered Bigly.  Not only that, but re-surging cold shots and no warm ups in sight should help keep the Glacier in tact for the forseable future.  There will be a lot of happy folks on here but also some upset ones the farther north and south you are.

[Tom]

Gosh, I don't know where to begin bc there are so many things to discuss about this fascinating weather pattern that is evolving into what I whole hardheartedly believe will be a special 15-20 days this month.  This will not be a month where most of this sub forum stands on the sidelines or we watch the EC get blasted like almost every other El Nino season.  Earlier this season, when the LRC was evolving, I knew deep down this season would not be a typical El Nino and the SER would flash from time to time.  A few of the techniques I've learned over the years have verified to be useful and are seemingly panning out.

 

It was around the Christmas holiday season or just prior when the Euro Weeklies began to flash the idea of a SER to develop mid month and I made a comment to look for this target period.  Run after run, it continued to show this signal and now we are about to enter this crucial period as cold invades the lower 48 and the most active period of the cycling pattern ramps up.  As we approach a time during the "heart" of the Winter season, when the jet stream begins to reach its strongest seasonal strength (late Jan/early Feb), Mother Nature may be suggesting Ol' Man Winter and the "Nanook from the North" to finally come back with a vengeance.

 

After looking at the Euro Weeklies run from yesterday, it is holding steadfast on the idea of the SER through the rest of the month and the 00z EPS is showing a classic example of a near neutral PNA , of which, IMO, is the most ideal outcome for a favorable storm track across the subforum.  If you consider a stout -AO and slightly -NAO pattern, alongside a neutral PNA, you can't paint a better picture.  I posted the 00z EPS run from last night and the Euro Weeklies PNA for reference.

 

Keeping all these LR ideas in the back of your mind, all awhile, we focus our attention towards the MW snowstorm, our focus will turn towards another potential major winter storm.  Yes, I feel strongly this will be another late week/weekend (18th-19th) major winter storm and right on schedule.  Last nights 00z EPS trended much more snowier across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's during this period.  Certainly favoring the central and eastern parts of the sub forum.  The 00z GEFS keep on suggesting nature will be building a Glacier in a hurry.

[Tom]

Looking out deeper into the pattern, post 21st and the tail end of January, if your not a fan of the Polar Vortex then I suggest you make plans to go down to FL if you want to escape the "ferocious fury" it will bring later this month.  I'm almost scared to think how brutal it will get later this month for the northern half of our sub.  If you look at the animation below, the 10mb heights grow a stronger signal for a North American Vortex when typically these maps tend to fade in the mean extending out in time.  What I'm digesting from this is something I've never seen off these maps before which leads me to believe that the forthcoming several weeks may go to the extreme I, personally, have never witnessed before.

 

 

[james1976]

06z GFS finally looks like winter. A lot of cold and a lot of systems. Let's see if future runs continue this.

[westMJim]

While a snowstorm passes by to the south.  Here in Michigan our snow drought will continue. Here in Grand Rapids there has not been a time in recorded history that we have had the little amount of snow fall we have had during the first 42 days of Met winter. At this time Grand Rapids has only had 1.1” of snow this January and since December 1^st the total is only 4.3” that is -17.7” below where we should be. Around the state Muskegon January total 4.3” since December 1^st 7.5” -30.4”. Over at Lansing it is the same January total so far 0.2” Since December 1^st 1.5” -16.0” On the east side of the state Detroit just 0.2” in January and 0.7” for Met winter (-13.0”) at Flint January 0.9” for the met winter 4.7” (-11.4”) At Saginaw January 0.7” since December 1^st 2.5” (-10.4”) Of course all locations had a good amount of snow in November but also all locations are below average for the season now.

UP north while there has been a snow cover there it total for the winter season is also below where they should be on January 11^th here are some locations and their snow fall totals and seasonal departures. Alpena 30.3” (-3.2”) Gaylord 46.6” (-21.1”) Traverse City 23.5” (-24.2”) Petoskey 52.5” (-7.3”) in the UP their snow fall has been much heaver and in fact is near and above average for the total to date. Sault Ste Marie 63.9” (+4.2”) Marquette 96.4” (-1.9””

[Hawkeye]

Meanwhile, the op euro has been backing off the potential cold through ten days.  Last night's 00z run has rain here on day 8, followed by another surge of warmth over the plains.

[Minny_Weather]

RAP is in the same ballpark as HRRR. They're basically the same model so I'm not surprised, but it is still a solution that I'm worried about.

[gosaints]

Meanwhile, the op euro has been backing off the potential cold through ten days.  Last night's 00z run has rain here on day 8, followed by another surge of warmth over the plains.

There are storm chances on the horizon, but no true signs of any substantial change in overall weather.  Definetly warmth for the foreseeable future

[Madtown]

Forcast temps all week long were 12 degrees in northern wi on next Monday. Now a jump to 22 with the Artic air 2 Fridays out...the push back continues. Trails are thin hope riding is ok when were up. Looks like no system snow and only some lake effect through the 24th!

[Snowshoe]

I'm a little concerned the northern 2/3s of Wisco will be some of the upset ones.

 

There will be a lot of happy folks on here but also some upset ones the farther north and south you are.

[Stacsh]

Besides a little LES in the usual areas(hardly any though), SMI is as brown and bare as can be.  Not even a snow pile.  Absolutely amazing for Jan 11th.  Of course we'd had thaws before that dwindle snowcover and what not.  But this feels unprecedented.  

[james1976]

12z GFS back south with next weekend's storm. Hits pretty much same areas as this current one.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro now has a big snowstorm missing just south next weekend as well.  ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[james1976]

Yup I know it's a week out but I have a bad feeling about it lol.

[gosaints]

12z Euro now has a big snowstorm missing just south next weekend as well.  ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep with mild pacific air on its heals

[Madtown]

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna need more than 0” of snow OTG to make this happen.

[CentralNebWeather]

Gonna need more than 0” of snow OTG to make this happen.

Very good point. The lack of snowpack to the north is worrisome imo.

[Thunder98]

The Sierra's could get up to over 150" of snow by the 21st. 

 

[james1976]

Can we just lock in the 18z GFS run? My Goodness.

[jaster220]

Can we just lock in the 18z GFS run? My Goodness.

 

Mr. Fujiwara makes a return appearance around the 22-23 timestamp. That guy delivered over SWMI when he stopped-by in November. Would love to see him again. As a matter of fact, he can't get here fast enough!

[jaster220]

https://goo.gl/images/JLoqVc

 

why fight it

 

While that was our past month or so, Tom's been posting about phased storms and that clearly shows the two branches far apart. Difficult to get all these big dog storms he's seeing with that set-up. Tho I will admit the clippers seem to be taking that N Stream route thus LES has been scarce further south in Mich

[Niko]

Clear and 25F currently w seasonable conditions.

[Niko]

Extended outlook looks brutal. Yikes.......

[jaster220]

Extended outlook looks brutal. Yikes.......

 

Check this out. Tom's comment about "never seen this before" might be the real deal

 

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1083719732396732416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1083719732396732416&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F1083719732396732416

[St Paul Storm]

Check this out. Tom's comment about "never seen this before" might be the real deal

 

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1083719732396732416?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1083719732396732416&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F1083719732396732416

Yeah, but keep in mind it’s based off the GFS and the GFS is pretty terrible. I’m not trying to discount what Tom or others are saying. But it’s difficult to have a lot of faith in something being depicted by that model right now. I hope it happens, but I need to see more before I jump in.

[ToastedRavs]

Canadian has negative 25 to 30 for MLK day. GFS is cold too...but a balmy -20ish.....that for much of Iowa. I wouldn't mind breaking my personal low temp!!! (Which is -21) Bring it on!!

[Grizzcoat]

Gonna need to build the snowpack region wide for those temps to even come into the ballpark- none-the-less - play.  It's starting with this one and chances to add. Nature evens itself over time-- 50 to 55F for highs in late DEC to early JAN can easily be replaced with Lows nearly 70-80F colder in late JAN / early FEB. Happened before. ANd will happen again- whether or not it's this year. 

[Clinton]

Got to love the power of having a snow pack on the ground what was looking like temperatures being in the mid-40s for the upcoming week has been replaced with temperatures in the mid-30s

[Grizzcoat]

Got to love the power of having a snow pack on the ground what was looking like temperatures being in the mid-40s for the upcoming week has been replaced with temperatures in the mid-30s

that is Very true. and not saying your saying the above temps come to fruition - but anything close needs a MUCH deeper snowpack N of  both of us,  Our snowpack will be gone quickly unless those to the N of us get  a more "seasonal"  snow pack along with a Clipper flow.  At this point in the game with 3-4" on the ground and another 1-2" coming today- I'll take the Clippers and sustaining cold to keep the snow. 

[FV-Mike]

Yes, I will be willing to eat crow if this doesn't happen.  Lets see if the models begin handling the blocking better over the next day or so.

 

Had to bump back up. Great call Clinton!

[Clinton]

Had to bump back up. Great call Clinton!

Thank you The Sun Shines on a dog's a** every once in a while lol

[westMJim]

 There is snow falling to the south and south west of Michigan. However here in Michigan the snow drought continues and will continue for at least a week or more. In reading todays GRR NWS discussion their feeling is that it should be chances of it getting colder  (maybe in and out) but still no sure sign of a big snow event here in Michigan as the cold still looks to be shallow and not being able to get the lake effect going. Also the storm track  may now go south of Michigan. The current temperature here at my house is 28.8° with cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Currently at 25F w cloudy skies.

 

Edit: Big time action looking likely on the EC possibly after the 20th. NYC could be in for a lot of snow. If that is the case, I will maybe plan a trip there. Dont wanna miss on their feet of snow snowstorm/s there.

[GDR]

[CentralNebWeather]

For those of us in Nebraska that missed this storm, the 12z GFS looks good.

[james1976]

GFS keeping winter hopes alive. Another impressive run.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Looks like snow is getting closer to YBY buddy. I can see you getting maybe a couple of inches.

 

Btw: Extended looks stormy and frigid. It is always excited to see subtle elements that possibly come together and keep an eye on for potential storminess.