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January 2019 Observations and Discussion


Minny_Weather

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-33F at the ICE BOX right now in I-Falls,MN-  don't know what the  Dewpoint is because ASOS will not report it when it's below -40F/C or colder. The record is -40F set in 1963. Probably not-- but maybe in 10 days or so. Also -33F at Ely,MN where I spend A LOT of my summer and a little in the winter camping/fishing etc  For those that have never experienced true bitter cold (my record is between -35 and -40- don't know as I was winter camping) it's a different world that only about 1% of the population have any clue about. To put it in perspective - -30F is 62F colder than 32F. 62F warmer than 32F is 94F. It's the same thing- just the other way.   

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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While in the midst of a classic winter storm, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as the future looks prime for portions of our sub forum to continue to be inundated by wintry systems through the rest of the month.  Not only that, but vicious shots of re-surging, brutal arctic air and the dislodging of the Polar Vortex is on the table.  

 

After the early/mid week snow/rain system traverses the MW/GL's region, we will set our sights on a NW Flow as a stout -EPO blossoms while high lat blocking locks into a long duration blocking pattern.  Post significant SSW disruptions, these type of blocking patterns, once they form, they tend to lock well into the early Spring so we'll just have to see how long this winter pattern lasts.  There is a lot of data suggesting it lasts well into March.

 

Anyway, in the medium to long range, the ensembles are supporting a couple fairly robust Clippers during the 25th-30th period.  These are the type of set ups that can produce a hybrid, amplifying clipper pattern as they tend to dig and strengthen once the dive S/SE out of Canada in a blocking pattern, esp with a -NAO block.  So, there will be 2-3 day intervals of tracking systems as we progress through the rest of this month.  Fun times shall continue....

 

Now, once we flip the calendar into Feb, this month as a whole, will likely turn out to be the highlight month of the winter season (Dec-Feb).  I love the look of nearly every single global/climate model suggesting our sub socked in the active/cold pattern.  If you have a snow pack on the ground now, I don't see why you wouldn't have it by the time we enter March.  This pattern is locked and loaded with the potential for some very strong S stream winter storms as we open Feb.  Latest guidance suggest the STJ ramp up as we close out Jan and open Feb and I'm looking for a GHD storm coming out of the SW/CO Rockies.  Best guess at this point, this one has the looks of a Big Dog...I mean...Big...

 

Last Thursday, the Euro Weeklies literally build a massive Glacier for anyone north of say, the TX Panhandle region east into the Appalachians.  With a favorable PNA pattern and developing SW Flow to open Feb, this is the pattern that will be a main Exhibit next month.  Just buy looking at the 00z GEFS 10mb maps, one can see we shift the storm track out in the SW.  Before we get there, the 00z GEFS/EPS continue to build the Glacier across the heartland.

 

 

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-33F at the ICE BOX right now in I-Falls,MN- don't know what the Dewpoint is because ASOS will not report it when it's below -40F/C or colder. The record is -40F set in 1963. Probably not-- but maybe in 10 days or so. Also -33F at Ely,MN where I spend A LOT of my summer and a little in the winter camping/fishing etc For those that have never experienced true bitter cold (my record is between -35 and -40- don't know as I was winter camping) it's a different world that only about 1% of the population have any clue about. To put it in perspective - -30F is 62F colder than 32F. 62F warmer than 32F is 94F. It's the same thing- just the other way.

 

I see Grand Marais was reporting a temp of -38F with a dew point of -41F and absolutely no wind. I can only imagine what it would be like to step outside and breathe in that air.
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After today's snowstorm here in SEMI, it gets brutal. Below zero temps for Sunday night (-3-8F).

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The extended shows storminess and brutal temps, but then again, its way out there, so given that, there is a minuscule chance of that coming to fruition. Thats what makes this hobby so great thought. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 18z GFS has perhaps the highest snow depth I've ever seen modeled in my area. Well over 24" for much of the state. And that isn't accumulated snow, that's DEPTH. Essentially all that run did was snow on Iowa every 3 or 4 days and not melt whatsoever.

 

#extreme

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011918/384/snod.conus.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I see Grand Marais was reporting a temp of -38F with a dew point of -41F and absolutely no wind. I can only imagine what it would be like to step outside and breathe in that air.

-Keeps out the riff-raff....

 

-42F at Kabetogama and -40F at Togo,,MN this morn.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The 18z GFS has perhaps the highest snow depth I've ever seen modeled in my area. Well over 24" for much of the state. And that isn't accumulated snow, that's DEPTH. Essentially all that run did was snow on Iowa every 3 or 4 days and not melt whatsoever.

 

#extreme

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011918/384/snod.conus.png

 

^ yep she is high on CLippers with a Big Dog at the end

 

Wow! Iowa magnet this winter? Was wondering what happened to our magnet over here??

 

Normally, a NW flow clipper regime is kismet for The Mitt or at least the LES belt regions. Especially if there's true arctic shots. I could see some real fun-n-game surprises after this next warm cutter.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Was gonna say. Currently 15F with a WC of 3F. Baro still sub-30.00" hg and north gusts in the 20+ mph making for some nasty conditions. Snow blowing off the roof tops of larger buildings giving it a psuedo bliz feel to the evening. Stark stark contrast from the past ~6 wks around here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Arctic air now arriving while my beautiful snowpack is around. Going below zero tomorrow night and highs barely near 10F.

 

Btw: LES snow occurring now off of Lake Huron and pretty close to my area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:blink:

 

@ my grid for Monday morning. Would be more than 20 deg colder than my previous low temp this season

 

Screenshot_2019-01-19 7-Day Forecast for Latitude 42 27°N and Longitude 84 97°W (Elev 906 ft).png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:blink:

 

@ my grid for Monday morning. Would be more than 20 deg colder than my previous low temp this season

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot_2019-01-19 7-Day Forecast for Latitude 42 27°N and Longitude 84 97°W (Elev 906 ft).png

:ph34r:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On a side note. Places like S IN and S OH that aren't known for heavy duty snowstorms are getting raked attm. Wind gusts in W Ohio up to 50mph along with some 40 dbz whiteout bands. One person said it was the hardest he'd ever seen it snow in OH. Another mentioning worst conditions since '78

 

Edit - dynamic system. Cinci area with TSSN

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The models sure do fluctuate wildy in the later periods.  Just a couple runs ago the euro was showing record cold plunging down into the midwest at day 9/10.  This morning's run backed off quite a bit.  One of the GFS runs earlier today showed a wave of cold, snowy clippers leaving Iowa under a couple feet of snow.  Now tonight's run has rain in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan at day 10.   :wacko:

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9°F here. Cloud cover is going to keep temps fairly steady. Our above zero streak is still holding strong.

 

GFS has a big, but very short lived, cold snap for Friday. -12 in the morning, 16 by the afternoon, and 34 by midnight. Weird. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Waking up to bitter cold this morning (+8F) under clear skies with a NW breeze is producing WC's subzero (-9F) which we have not seen in weeks!  What a shock to the system...Brrrr...it's certainly going to look and feel like Mid- Winter today as the sun will be shining while underneath the presence of Arctic HP.  #RealWinter has arrived and is here to stay...but is the severe cold fading???  I'm beginning to see some guidance among both the GEFS/EPS ensembles that the severity of the cold will be backing off later into Week 2 and allowing a relaxing of the flow.  I posted maps in recent days off the 10mb GEFS suggesting that as we close out the month of January and open Feb, we would probably transition into a SW Flow.  Needless to say, the models are backing off the EC trough and beginning to flash a Southern/EC ridge in the extended with troughs entering the west coast.  This is something to monitor as we move ahead as it will likely usher in a hyper active PAC wave train to open Feb, all awhile, there is a strong indication that high lat blocking will be present that'll be one of the key components into the Feb pattern.  I must say, using the 10mb heights maps is far more useful into predicting where troughs/ridges are likely to develop rather than the 500mb maps.

 

Using the LRC as guidance, after we get passed the NW Flow pattern for a bit, we will turn into an active SW Flow pattern like we saw in December with many strong systems coming out of the SW into the S Plains.  However, we will NOT see a similar pattern at 500mb as we saw in December.  We will see the storms, but the storms will behave differently now that we are in a new cycle of the LRC.  There will be dominant high lat blocking that will influence the storm track and energize systems next month.  I'll say it now, Feb has all the indications to be the highlight month of the entire met Winter season.

 

The SOI is rising, the 10mb heights maps suggest a SER signal in the extend and what we are seeing now are the models trending towards a -PNA which I've been alluding to will happen.  I feel for those who live in the south bc this type of pattern is not a winter wx fans ideal look.  As we close out the month of January, we have these 10mb maps to look at that will lead us into an active open into Feb.  Mind you, the key to this month will be the presence of high lat blocking that we lacked in December, esp the -NAO, that will seed the cold into the lower 48.

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You know, something was drawing my attention to look at the 10mb temp animations after I made that post above and I found another clue which is indicating to me that the ridge should build back in the S/SE in the extended.  Check out the last few days in the animation below and one will notice the 10mb temps rising along the Gulf states and along the SE coast.  Fast forward 2-3 weeks and we can interpret the -PNA signal which now the models are portraying.  Yet another way we can use this tool in the LR discussion and forecasting.  Pretty neat, ay???  Not to mention, check out the deep blues centering across North America suggesting the "North American Vortex" will be a dominating influence across the continent next month.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

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With clear skies and the 3" if snow on the ground it has gotten cold here. I have a spot in my yard that is colder then the rest of the yard on clear nights with light or calm winds. And this morning that is no exception,  My two temperature readings for the low so far this morning the cold location is -8.2° and my warmer location is -4.4°. Needless to say this is by far the coldest low here this winter season so far.

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Sunny skies w an awesome snowpack out there and temps are a frigid 5F. Going down to -10F tanite....BRRRR!

 

 

Btw: picked up a little LES last night from Lake Huron. A half inch added to it. Grand total is 6.5" :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hey! I joined the below zero club too - at least per my ASOS unit

 

Screenshot_2019-01-20 National Weather Service Observed Weather for past 3 Days Brooks Field Airport.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Currently experiencing a ground blizzard. Awesome stuff out there. Winds are very gusty, gusting 35mph or better at times. Temps are in the upper single digits. Wcf -15F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We had some decent returns here but a lot of that was zapped by dry air. Had some 20-25 dBZ readings over me yet only ended up with a few flurries. The 10 degree difference between temp and DP is the likely culprit here. 16.9*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Went for a short drive earlier to experience the nice snowpack and I must tell ya, the main roads are a mess. I know salt cannot work in frigid temps, unfortunately, so drivers out there keep extra distance from vehicles ahead of ya. Nice huge piles from spots as I was driving around. Finally looks like January. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hows it looking for Northern Wi that first full week of Feb. 6th 7th? Had to rebook our snowmobile trip since our house is sick this week

I'm seeing no signs of any warming trends up that way, unlike last year's Torch when you were supposed to go.  I do see an active pattern setting up during this period but that's all I can say at this point.  N Wisco may be to far north to get in on the S stream storms that are dialed up as we open Feb.  We'll see if there is a Clipper or two that could help in the snow dept.

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Ouch!  Now that is some brutal stuff right there...

 

 

 

@MikeHamernik
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Overnight low temperatures 1/20/2019:
-46° Cotton, MN*
-45° Seagull Lake, MN
-44° Ash Lake, MN
-42° Babbitt, MN
-40° Gunflint Lake, MN
+6° Chicago


*-46° is just 14° shy of the coldest US temp every recorded in the Midwest or east of the Mississippi (-60° 2/2/1996). #MNwx

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Picked up a surprising 1/2 to 1 inch of snow this morning in Southwest Omaha, which was supposed to just be some light flurries originally.

 

It was just enough snow to whiten things up a little more around here.

Definitely agree we got about the same here. I was actually surprised by the intensity there for a bit.

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Temps barely above 10F (11 to be exact) and blowing snow occurring. Its brutal.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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