Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

January 2019 Observations and Discussion

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
Niko

Posted 30 December 2018 - 10:40 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

primary_WSI_winter_1220.jpg

 

TWC :

 

OUTLOOK FOR: J F M


  • Andie likes this

#52
Hawkeye

Posted 30 December 2018 - 11:13 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1849 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The euro is pretty ugly through ten days.  After a brief cold shot, it's back to west to east pacific flow.


season snowfall: 13.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#53
Niko

Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:44 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

The pacific jet will roar in. Very hard to kill off that jet once it kicks in. It will eventually break down, but it might take awhile, maybe after the 20th, some Arctic air arrives.



#54
Stacsh

Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:46 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

I agree. Quiet weather. Hopefully, by mid month things get cranking cuz February will be here b4 ya know it.


I was hoping for an early winter. Twins are born next month. Was hoping for a warmer February lol.
  • jaster220 likes this

#55
jaster220

Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:17 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5923 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

I was hoping for an early winter. Twins are born next month. Was hoping for a warmer February lol.

 

Congrats! Mine have 2-11-00 for a b-day. That year we had our worst wx that week, but spring came early and that was nice. Some say another warm early spring may happen this year.


  • Sparky likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#56
Stacsh

Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:47 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

Congrats! Mine have 2-11-00 for a b-day. That year we had our worst wx that week, but spring came early and that was nice. Some say another warm early spring may happen this year.


Thanks. I’m excited but nervous! It would be nice to get out of the house a little early this spring. Due Feb 25
  • jaster220 likes this

#57
Tom

Posted 31 December 2018 - 05:08 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17939 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

After 24-36 hours of lousy model runs, suddenly, most global models are pointing to the next storm system I've been looking for on my calendar.  It's a beautiful thing to see the Euro/GFS/GGEM all agree at this range, however, considering we are still 7 days away from this storm developing in the Plains/MW, we need to sit back and see this play out.

 

Just for eye candy, here was the 00z Euro run...lining up towards the west/east storm track, AKA, "share the wealth" I was inclining to a few days ago.  It can snow in a warm pattern and the models may be trending towards more blocking which I alluded to as Canadian HP "seeds" the cold.


  • Hawkeye, jaster220 and Clinton like this

#58
Clinton

Posted 31 December 2018 - 06:00 AM

Clinton

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 242 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

I really like the trends on the AO and NAO especially as we head in to the second week of January.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....k/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml


  • Tom, jaster220 and OKwx2k4 like this

#59
Clinton

Posted 31 December 2018 - 06:57 AM

Clinton

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 242 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

12z NAM with a cut-off low bringing snow and fr. rain to me :huh:

https://www.tropical...018123112&fh=69


  • OKwx2k4 likes this

#60
bud2380

Posted 31 December 2018 - 08:32 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2259 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

GFS still showing the storm in about a week.  Shifted north this run, but that's not important right now.  Hopefully this becomes our next storm thread, and hopefully a good one.  


  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#61
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:22 AM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3621 posts
Starting to look like something to watch down here.
  • Tom, jaster220, Andie and 1 other like this

#62
someweatherdude

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:39 AM

someweatherdude

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 94 posts
  • LocationKC

You know it's a messed up winter when the north side of a storm in the Midwest has the rain, and the snow is due south. 

 

https://www.tropical...018123112&fh=84


  • Clinton likes this

#63
Niko

Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:05 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

The 2nd wk of January looks interesting. Lets wait and see how that plays out. It will get better eventually, unfortunately, its too bad December was a total waste.


  • jaster220 likes this

#64
Stacsh

Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:50 AM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

I have 40 in my forecast for the end of the week twice.  January thaw?  :lol:


  • jaster220 likes this

#65
Madtown

Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:51 AM

Madtown

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1303 posts
a thaw would require a freeze first 😆

#66
Stacsh

Posted 31 December 2018 - 12:17 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

a thaw would require a freeze first

 

I pulled some stakes out of my yard yesterday and the ground wasn't frozen at all.  Usually there is barely any dirt attached to them.  This time it was mud. 



#67
Stacsh

Posted 31 December 2018 - 07:57 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI
Bumped up temps to above freezing the next 7 ( a few low 40’s) days. Last week it was forecasted 20’s... El Niño took over any other Forecast tool. All hail El Niño. (For now).
  • Madtown likes this

#68
Grizzcoat

Posted 31 December 2018 - 08:30 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1788 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

Jan starts out with a Yawner of a GFS run......SSDY :o)


2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#69
Niko

Posted 31 December 2018 - 10:28 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

ny-5.gif


  • jaster220 likes this

#70
Grizzcoat

Posted 31 December 2018 - 11:14 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1788 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

Euro has 1000/500 thickness values in the mid 560's for the 9th and 10th for much of NE and IA. This would = near records. Much like 2003 (that ugly analog year again) when it was 67 (YES 67F) on the Jan 8th. That 67F is the warmest its ever been in JAN on record at DSM. Fun times ahead! 


  • Hawkeye and jaster220 like this

2018-19 Snowfall- 20.2" - JAN 19'  17.5"


#71
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:40 AM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1285 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Wow, January is quickly starting to look like a dud lol. After sacrificing the usual best month of December it would be hard to see January perform the same way.


  • jaster220 likes this

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 20.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#72
westMJim

Posted 01 January 2019 - 04:49 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1281 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

Happy New Year!!!!

Grand Rapids ended December 2018 with the 3.2" of snow fall this is the 6th least amount of snow fall in any December at Grand Rapids. At this time the snow drought looks to continue into January. 


  • Tom likes this

#73
Tom

Posted 01 January 2019 - 04:59 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17939 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Happy New Year!!!!

Grand Rapids ended December 2018 with the 3.2" of snow fall this is the 6th least amount of snow fall in any December at Grand Rapids. At this time the snow drought looks to continue into January. 

Happy New Year WestMJim!  Unfortunately, the doldrums of December are rearing their ugly head into the early part of January....but for how long is the question???


  • westMJim likes this

#74
Tom

Posted 01 January 2019 - 05:16 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17939 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
Research has shown that at the peak of the SSW event which has already occurred a few days ago, it takes about 2 weeks for the real effects to begin. See graph below the spike in 10mb warming...

pole10_nh.gif

Notably, we should start seeing High Pressure build across Canada and the high lats which nearly every model is now seeing. However, the big differences between the GEFS/EPS are in the NE PAC. Arguably, the Euro typically has problems in this region and wants to keep the EPO sky high and basically keeps the jet roaring across the CONUS and no sign of a Split Flow. On the other hand, both the GEFS/GEPS see the transition towards a -EPO on or about the 11th/12th of the month. According to the LRC, the PV near Hudson bay should be replaced by a Hudson Bay Ridge and the GEFS are certainly seeing this take place. Not only that, but a definitive Greenland Block is taking shape. If we were to have a pattern with no blocking near Greenland and the Arctic, I'd say we would have an almost lock to see warmth prevail, but something is telling me that this is not going to happen. Sure, the timing of the real cold to settle into the pattern seems to be centering itself during the middle of the month but I'm seeing signs that these Canadian HP's will bleed enough cold air into our pattern to see some wintry systems before the real cold settles in later in the month.

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_33.png


gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png



Just take a look at the anomalous blocking showing up on the GEFS and the positioning of the Aleutian Low....something has to give and if the blocking is legit, I would imagine that there is enough cold air in the pattern to produce wintry systems.



gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_10.png
  • FV-Mike and Clinton like this

#75
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 January 2019 - 05:17 AM

LNK_Weather

    Opinions don't care about your feelings

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4175 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Wow, January is quickly starting to look like a dud lol. After sacrificing the usual best month of December it would be hard to see January perform the same way.

Why are you saying that when global models only reliably go out 10 days? The first half will be a dud but there is SSW occurring and the MJO is moving to 7. If a pattern change occurs, it will be in the second half of the month. I'm just as annoyed as everyone else, but it's not right to call off anything just yet.


  • Clinton likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#76
Stormhunter87

Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:27 AM

Stormhunter87

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 547 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE
GFS showing a massive storm around the 10th and 11th.
  • Niko likes this

#77
someweatherdude

Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:33 AM

someweatherdude

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 94 posts
  • LocationKC

Shouldn't there be a thread for the projected Oklahoma storm?  Several models now have that state getting a massive snowfall.


  • jaster220 and Andie like this

#78
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:36 AM

LNK_Weather

    Opinions don't care about your feelings

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4175 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Shouldn't there be a thread for the projected Oklahoma storm? Several models now have that state getting a massive snowfall.


We only have one poster from Oklahoma and he's on-and-off with his activity on here. It's not needed or worth it.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 25.4"             Coldest Low: 4*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#79
someweatherdude

Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:44 AM

someweatherdude

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 94 posts
  • LocationKC

It's fascinating and crazy that by the end of the first week of January, Oklahoma City (or somewhere near there) likely will have a greater seasonal snowfall total than Des Moines. Not trying to take anything away from our Oklahoma folks.  But what a sucky winter so far. 


  • jaster220 and Andie like this

#80
Stormhunter87

Posted 01 January 2019 - 08:23 AM

Stormhunter87

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 547 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE

It's fascinating and crazy that by the end of the first week of January, Oklahoma City (or somewhere near there) likely will have a greater seasonal snowfall total than Des Moines. Not trying to take anything away from our Oklahoma folks. But what a sucky winter so far.


Definitely interesting. Great timing on the energy with the surge of cold air.

#81
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 09:50 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Cloudy and seasonably cold w temps hovering in the 30s (31F) to be exact. A few flurries or snowshowers possible today. No accumulations by all means.



#82
jaster220

Posted 01 January 2019 - 09:51 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5923 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

ny-5.gif

 

Nice graphic Niko! Happy New Year to you and all here!


  • Niko, Andie, St Paul Storm and 1 other like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#83
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 09:53 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Lets see how this month performs. So far, its looking "MEH" for the 1st part of January, but hearing it gets better as the month wears on. Lets sit back and wait to see how everything falls together. I am hoping it doesn't get push back for late Jan or early Feb.



#84
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 09:54 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Nice graphic Niko! Happy New Year to you and all here!

Thanks buddy...same to you as well.


  • jaster220 likes this

#85
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:01 AM

OKwx2k4

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3621 posts

We only have one poster from Oklahoma and he's on-and-off with his activity on here. It's not needed or worth it.

I agree. I'll share on it if it happens. Just keep rooting for me. All I can ask for. Lol.

Happy new year!

Add,...If they would not have killed politics thread I'd be here more often. When the weather sucks, it just does. Lol. Not much else to say about it. I missed my call for December.
  • jaster220, Andie, Sparky and 1 other like this

#86
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:02 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Heatwave for this weekend in SEMI as temps near the 50 degree mark or better w sunshine. Oh boy, I can see some record high temps being broken. The 40s continue into next week as well. No snow in sight for at least the first 2 wks of January as for now.

 

@Jaster...are ya going to hit the lake this upcoming weekend for a tan?! :lol:


  • jaster220 and Sparky like this

#87
jaster220

Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:18 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5923 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Heatwave for this weekend in SEMI as temps near the 50 degree mark or better w sunshine. Oh boy, I can see some record high temps being broken. The 40s continue into next week as well. No snow in sight for at least the first 2 wks of January as for now.

 

@Jaster...are ya going to hit the lake this upcoming weekend for a tan?! :lol:

 

I wish I could B)

 

Seriously tho, winter will likely show up after I've grown tired of waiting for it. :rolleyes:  If we're getting Mar/Apr wx now, spring may go the other way. Wouldn't be shocked tbh


  • Niko and Sparky like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:42 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2037 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Over 300 hours of no flakes here on the GFS/FV3. Where have I seen this before? It would be easy to claim this winter is likely a bust, but last year I had 10” of snow at this time and finished with 78”. Let’s hope for a repeat.

Current snow season to date is 11”.
  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#89
Tom

Posted 01 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17939 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Over 300 hours of no flakes here on the GFS/FV3. Where have I seen this before? It would be easy to claim this winter is likely a bust, but last year I had 10” of snow at this time and finished with 78”. Let’s hope for a repeat.

Current snow season to date is 11”.


We need a legendary finish to winter and I still believe it’s coming. This warm spell was far longer than I had originally thought. I’d be lying if I said it was supposed to happen. The lesson learned, a near record SSW and lack of any -EPO killed the late Dec cold and early Jan cold. Once the effects of the SSW kick in along with high Lat blocking it’ll get much better. I’d like to see at least a neutral EPO as well.

Meanwhile, kicking back and watching the Winter Classic on NBC. Go Hawks!
  • Sparky likes this

#90
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:04 AM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6025 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

I wish I could B)

 

Seriously tho, winter will likely show up after I've grown tired of waiting for it. :rolleyes:  If we're getting Mar/Apr wx now, spring may go the other way. Wouldn't be shocked tbh

I agree 100% buddy!



#91
Tom

Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:16 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17939 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

What did I learn from today's 12z runs???  Both GFS/EURO tank the AO and NAO around the 6th and keep it that way through the end of run.  I assume the models are going to have a fun time figuring out the blocking and storm track going forward.  


  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#92
westMJim

Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:16 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1281 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

I wish I could B)

 

Seriously tho, winter will likely show up after I've grown tired of waiting for it. :rolleyes:  If we're getting Mar/Apr wx now, spring may go the other way. Wouldn't be shocked tbh

That very we could happen. . In looking at Grand Rapids history I did find a winter season that “could” be a path to a average to just above average snow fall season. The winter??? 1971/72 At Grand Rapids November 1971 had 14.9” of snow fall (November 2018 had 14.4”) December of 1971 had just 3.7” and was the 7th least snowy December of record here. (December 2018 is in 6th place with 3.2”) January 1972 started out warm and most of the first 13 days were warmer than average. But there was 12.2” of snow in the 13 days. Starting on the 14th of January it became much colder and the rest of the month was colder then average but only 10.6” of snow fell that 2nd half (a total of 22.6”) February was cold (-4.9°) and there was 16.9” of snow. March was cold -6.0° with 14.2” of snow and April was cold 5.7 be low average and seen 5.7” of snow. Spring did come later in May of 1972

BTW that winter was one of only 2 that had very low December snow fall totals at Grand Rapids that came in with at or above average seasonal snow fall one of the other was the winter of 2014/15 but that winter had 31.0" in November and then had 23.2 in January and 19.6 in February. 


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#93
westMJim

Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:19 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1281 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

What did I learn from today's 12z runs???  Both GFS/EURO tank the AO and NAO around the 6th and keep it that way through the end of run.  I assume the models are going to have a fun time figuring out the blocking and storm track going forward.  

If it indeed turns colder sometime in January look at the winter of 1971/72 for a possible analog clue 


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#94
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:23 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2541 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Over 300 hours of no flakes here on the GFS/FV3. Where have I seen this before? It would be easy to claim this winter is likely a bust, but last year I had 10” of snow at this time and finished with 78”. Let’s hope for a repeat.

Current snow season to date is 11”.


You know it is a strange year when my location in Central Nebraska has had over 1 foot more snow at least (waiting on official December stats along with November)than the Twin Cities.
  • jaster220 likes this

#95
Tom

Posted 01 January 2019 - 11:32 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17939 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I'd imagine today's 12z EPS will have a much colder look, esp after seeing today's MJO run which is now showing some amplification into Phase 8...

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

GEFS suggest we go into Phase 7...both are cold and both are suggesting favorable teleconnections beginning next week..

 

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif


  • Hawkeye and jaster220 like this

#96
Madtown

Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:06 PM

Madtown

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1303 posts
temps keep going up this weekend...cant believe it😐

#97
Stacsh

Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:36 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 203 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

temps keep going up this weekend...cant believe it😐


This is my only day at or below freezing forecasted for next 8 days. If winter comes, it’s going to be short lived.

#98
Madtown

Posted 01 January 2019 - 12:39 PM

Madtown

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1303 posts
Looks like maybe by the 18th it cools off, but who knows...been waiting for a pattern change since Dec 13th so not holding my breath this one shows up.
  • jaster220 likes this

#99
Andie

Posted 01 January 2019 - 02:00 PM

Andie

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2557 posts
  • LocationFort Worth, Texas

Shouldn't there be a thread for the projected Oklahoma storm? Several models now have that state getting a massive snowfall.

North Texas often benefits from Oklahoma storms in the winter.
The DFW area will receive morning ice falling between a rain sandwich tomorrow. Our deep cold usually doesn't show up till closert o mid January through February. Okwx has become discouraged, but I think we both have some real weather ahead.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#100
Andie

Posted 01 January 2019 - 02:10 PM

Andie

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2557 posts
  • LocationFort Worth, Texas

It's fascinating and crazy that by the end of the first week of January, Oklahoma City (or somewhere near there) likely will have a greater seasonal snowfall total than Des Moines. Not trying to take anything away from our Oklahoma folks.  But what a sucky winter so far.


Pretty typical for our general area. When Texas is dealing with an El Niño of any strength, we usually get snow and/or ice.
Our last large snow event was winter of '08/'09 and we received a boatload of snow for our area. We had not seen a snow event like that for a long time.
We can get 5-8" snows as late as Valentine's Day.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*