January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Finally some hope at the end of the tunnel as we head into the second week of january.

[Stormhunter87]

Looking crazy active week two and beyond but the models keep dumping warm air into the equation.

[Niko]

I think January will be a betta month for snowfall and colder temps to go w it as well.

[Stormhunter87]

I think January will be a betta month for snowfall and colder temps to go w it as well.

Certainly hope so. Although I don't have much room to complain because we have gotten some snow love.

[GDR]

Looks like a good pattern change around the middle of the third week

[Stacsh]

I think January will be a betta month for snowfall and colder temps to go w it as well.

Not looking great through mid-month.

[Niko]

Not looking great through mid-month.

I agree. Quiet weather. Hopefully, by mid month things get cranking cuz February will be here b4 ya know it.

[Niko]

 

TWC :

 

OUTLOOK FOR: J F M

[Hawkeye]

The euro is pretty ugly through ten days.  After a brief cold shot, it's back to west to east pacific flow.

[Niko]

The pacific jet will roar in. Very hard to kill off that jet once it kicks in. It will eventually break down, but it might take awhile, maybe after the 20th, some Arctic air arrives.

[Stacsh]

I agree. Quiet weather. Hopefully, by mid month things get cranking cuz February will be here b4 ya know it.

I was hoping for an early winter. Twins are born next month. Was hoping for a warmer February lol.

[jaster220]

I was hoping for an early winter. Twins are born next month. Was hoping for a warmer February lol.

 

Congrats! Mine have 2-11-00 for a b-day. That year we had our worst wx that week, but spring came early and that was nice. Some say another warm early spring may happen this year.

[Stacsh]

Congrats! Mine have 2-11-00 for a b-day. That year we had our worst wx that week, but spring came early and that was nice. Some say another warm early spring may happen this year.

Thanks. I’m excited but nervous! It would be nice to get out of the house a little early this spring. Due Feb 25

[Tom]

After 24-36 hours of lousy model runs, suddenly, most global models are pointing to the next storm system I've been looking for on my calendar.  It's a beautiful thing to see the Euro/GFS/GGEM all agree at this range, however, considering we are still 7 days away from this storm developing in the Plains/MW, we need to sit back and see this play out.

 

Just for eye candy, here was the 00z Euro run...lining up towards the west/east storm track, AKA, "share the wealth" I was inclining to a few days ago.  It can snow in a warm pattern and the models may be trending towards more blocking which I alluded to as Canadian HP "seeds" the cold.

[Clinton]

I really like the trends on the AO and NAO especially as we head in to the second week of January.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[Clinton]

12z NAM with a cut-off low bringing snow and fr. rain to me

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018123112&fh=69

[bud2380]

GFS still showing the storm in about a week.  Shifted north this run, but that's not important right now.  Hopefully this becomes our next storm thread, and hopefully a good one.  

[OKwx2k4]

Starting to look like something to watch down here.

[Niko]

The 2nd wk of January looks interesting. Lets wait and see how that plays out. It will get better eventually, unfortunately, its too bad December was a total waste.

[Stacsh]

I have 40 in my forecast for the end of the week twice.  January thaw? 

[Madtown]

[Stacsh]

a thaw would require a freeze first

 

I pulled some stakes out of my yard yesterday and the ground wasn't frozen at all.  Usually there is barely any dirt attached to them.  This time it was mud. 

[Stacsh]

Bumped up temps to above freezing the next 7 ( a few low 40’s) days. Last week it was forecasted 20’s... El Niño took over any other Forecast tool. All hail El Niño. (For now).

[Grizzcoat]

Jan starts out with a Yawner of a GFS run......SSDY )

[Niko]

http://en.davno.ru/assets/images/cards/big/ny-5.gif

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has 1000/500 thickness values in the mid 560's for the 9th and 10th for much of NE and IA. This would = near records. Much like 2003 (that ugly analog year again) when it was 67 (YES 67F) on the Jan 8th. That 67F is the warmest its ever been in JAN on record at DSM. Fun times ahead! 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow, January is quickly starting to look like a dud lol. After sacrificing the usual best month of December it would be hard to see January perform the same way.

[westMJim]

Happy New Year!!!!

Grand Rapids ended December 2018 with the 3.2" of snow fall this is the 6th least amount of snow fall in any December at Grand Rapids. At this time the snow drought looks to continue into January. 

[Tom]

Happy New Year!!!!

Grand Rapids ended December 2018 with the 3.2" of snow fall this is the 6th least amount of snow fall in any December at Grand Rapids. At this time the snow drought looks to continue into January. 

Happy New Year WestMJim!  Unfortunately, the doldrums of December are rearing their ugly head into the early part of January....but for how long is the question???

[Tom]

Research has shown that at the peak of the SSW event which has already occurred a few days ago, it takes about 2 weeks for the real effects to begin. See graph below the spike in 10mb warming...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

Notably, we should start seeing High Pressure build across Canada and the high lats which nearly every model is now seeing. However, the big differences between the GEFS/EPS are in the NE PAC. Arguably, the Euro typically has problems in this region and wants to keep the EPO sky high and basically keeps the jet roaring across the CONUS and no sign of a Split Flow. On the other hand, both the GEFS/GEPS see the transition towards a -EPO on or about the 11th/12th of the month. According to the LRC, the PV near Hudson bay should be replaced by a Hudson Bay Ridge and the GEFS are certainly seeing this take place. Not only that, but a definitive Greenland Block is taking shape. If we were to have a pattern with no blocking near Greenland and the Arctic, I'd say we would have an almost lock to see warmth prevail, but something is telling me that this is not going to happen. Sure, the timing of the real cold to settle into the pattern seems to be centering itself during the middle of the month but I'm seeing signs that these Canadian HP's will bleed enough cold air into our pattern to see some wintry systems before the real cold settles in later in the month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just take a look at the anomalous blocking showing up on the GEFS and the positioning of the Aleutian Low....something has to give and if the blocking is legit, I would imagine that there is enough cold air in the pattern to produce wintry systems.

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Wow, January is quickly starting to look like a dud lol. After sacrificing the usual best month of December it would be hard to see January perform the same way.

Why are you saying that when global models only reliably go out 10 days? The first half will be a dud but there is SSW occurring and the MJO is moving to 7. If a pattern change occurs, it will be in the second half of the month. I'm just as annoyed as everyone else, but it's not right to call off anything just yet.

[Stormhunter87]

GFS showing a massive storm around the 10th and 11th.

[Minny_Weather]

Shouldn't there be a thread for the projected Oklahoma storm? Several models now have that state getting a massive snowfall.

We only have one poster from Oklahoma and he's on-and-off with his activity on here. It's not needed or worth it.

[Stormhunter87]

It's fascinating and crazy that by the end of the first week of January, Oklahoma City (or somewhere near there) likely will have a greater seasonal snowfall total than Des Moines. Not trying to take anything away from our Oklahoma folks. But what a sucky winter so far.

Definitely interesting. Great timing on the energy with the surge of cold air.

[Niko]

Cloudy and seasonably cold w temps hovering in the 30s (31F) to be exact. A few flurries or snowshowers possible today. No accumulations by all means.

[jaster220]

http://en.davno.ru/assets/images/cards/big/ny-5.gif

 

Nice graphic Niko! Happy New Year to you and all here!

[Niko]

Lets see how this month performs. So far, its looking "MEH" for the 1st part of January, but hearing it gets better as the month wears on. Lets sit back and wait to see how everything falls together. I am hoping it doesn't get push back for late Jan or early Feb.

[Niko]

Nice graphic Niko! Happy New Year to you and all here!

Thanks buddy...same to you as well.

[OKwx2k4]

We only have one poster from Oklahoma and he's on-and-off with his activity on here. It's not needed or worth it.

I agree. I'll share on it if it happens. Just keep rooting for me. All I can ask for. Lol.

 

Happy new year!

 

Add,...If they would not have killed politics thread I'd be here more often. When the weather sucks, it just does. Lol. Not much else to say about it. I missed my call for December.

[Niko]

Heatwave for this weekend in SEMI as temps near the 50 degree mark or better w sunshine. Oh boy, I can see some record high temps being broken. The 40s continue into next week as well. No snow in sight for at least the first 2 wks of January as for now.

 

@Jaster...are ya going to hit the lake this upcoming weekend for a tan?!