January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Madtown]

No rain please!

[Niko]

Temps are holding at a frigid 11F w partly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

 

Can these two phase pls. If so, we will be looking at another 78' Blitz.

[hlcater]

The 12z GFS rains on Iowa three times over the next 16 days.

These NW flow patterns seem to rarely be good for us. What it really gives us a chance to do is rev up the surface low magnet and either get rain, drizzle or dryslotted. Then we get dumped on by frigid air with a crust of snow or bare ground. Not ideal.

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z HRRR is a good hit in Central Nebraska.  Solid 3-6" and a stripe of fairly heavy snow, though very thin.  Should be fun tracking this in the next 24 hours or so.  Even if we only get a couple of inches, we could potentially have some blizzard conditions if the winds can hit 40-50 MPH gusts.

[Money]

3 runs in a row gfs showing that strong clipper

 

GGEM showing it as well and we’re starting to get in the medium range

[james1976]

3 runs in a row gfs showing that strong clipper

 

GGEM showing it as well and we’re starting to get in the medium range

Yeah 0z GFS looks a bit more SW from 18z. Two other weak clippers cross IA fri and again sat.

[Money]

Gfs through 240 with another system in WI after...

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012200&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[Hawkeye]

A clipper is still on track to drop 1-2" of snow through Iowa Friday.  The Euro is still robust with the Sunday/Monday clipper, but looks a bit better for MN/WI and points ese/e.

[Tom]

Happy Tuesday and Storm Tracking!  There's a saying, "Patience Pays Off"....well, in the wx dept, if your a fan of winter wx, your patience IS paying off this winter season.  The quote below basically explains how this Winter started off: December = Bitter, January  = Bitter...then, Sweet???

 

 

 

Once we get passed our winter storm today/tomorrow, we will be locked into a NW Flow pattern Week 1-2 along with key blocking patterns that will keep the MW/GL's region in the hot spot for Clippers to track.  It looks like models have somewhat backed off the intensity on the Fri/Sat Clipper, but the Euro still lays down a couple inches across parts of E IA/IL/N IN.  Following this system, our attention turns to a stronger Clipper that takes a track across the Upper MW/MW and pivots/digs/strengthens as it heads towards the GL's.  I've been looking for one of these systems to track across our northern half of the Sub all season long and I think this is going to happen.  This particular system has my attention and esp those across MN/WI/MI/N IL/N IN who are in the potential "high impact zone".

 

If the 00z Euro and GFS are right, the Jan '19 Glacier continues to build across the same places that have been getting hit repeatedly.  Could this pattern be for real???  

[Tom]

Diving into the longer range pattern, confidence continues to grow that the overall "base state" will shift into a La Nina pattern as the mechanisms of the North American pattern "shift" into a dominant SW Flow heading into Week 2, but does this last or is this a "transitional period???  It was a good call long ago to look for a SER even though the modeling was steadfast at parking an EC trough.  However, if one believes that the 10mb heights maps provide more value at determining LR forecasting than the 500mb maps, then I think this will provide another score or win in that dept.  Keeping that in mind, the SER is going to be a dominant player as we finish off this month and open Feb for our Sub Forum.  We will remain entrenched in a very active storm track and nearly every model is showing this to be true.  Look for the models to trend wetter as open up Feb but I think we will leave that discussion once we start a separate thread. 

 

 

The Key drivers heading into early Feb that will help aid a wintry pattern across the heartland will be the stout high lat Blocking which we did NOT have as the major mid-warming Stratospheric Event was transpiring in December.  Check out the Arctic blocking off the 00z GEFS...along with somewhat of a Greenland Block.  The SOI remains in a (+) state, as well as, the MJO in Phase 5/6 heading into Week  which keep the ridge off the EC.  

 

 

 

00z GEFS 10mb heights show this nicely....but does it last???  I'll dive into the Feb pattern a little later....

 

 

 

[Niko]

Temps are currently at 14F w cloudy skies and under a WWA for couple of inches of snow, switching to ice and then plain rain.

[Minny_Weather]

We're starting to actually plummet to below normal on the month, after the stupidly warm start. Of course, Ken Dewey is MAKING SURE to remind us that weather isn't climate. Dr. Dewey used to be a nice source for Lincoln climate info, but recently he's gone off the deep end and is now a full-blown AGW fear mongerer. Can't have below normal temps without him reminding everyone that temps are above normal in other parts of the globe. He's losing his credibility fast. Sorry for the rant. Just hate when people try to use weather as a political platform.

[Hawkeye]

The morning model runs are a mixed bag with regard to the strong Monday clipper.  The GFS/GFS-FV3 shifted south into Iowa, but the UK and Euro are farther northeast.

[james1976]

The morning model runs are a mixed bag with regard to the strong Monday clipper. The GFS/GFS-FV3 shifted south into Iowa, but the UK and Euro are farther northeast.

I dont wanna be in the bullseye. I was with these last 2 storms and it didn't come close to panning out.

[WBadgersW]

LoL MKX already added heavy snow wording for Sunday night and Monday

[jaster220]

LoL MKX already added heavy snow wording for Sunday night and Monday

 

 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and GFS-FV3 are losing the weak Friday clipper, although the UK still has it.  However, all three are nailing Iowa with the strong Sunday night/Monday clipper.  The UK was farther north, but moved south to where the GFSs have been.

[Bellona]

By the time Sunday night and Monday roll around the system will either be in Canada or Mexico. I'm not getting sucked in again lol

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro shifted well south as well.  It has a 995 mb low tracking from Nebraska to Indiana.  It's too bad it's still five days out.

[Hawkeye]

Wow.  This euro run is even better than I thought.  It shows what may be the greatest clipper of all time for the I-80 corridor from Iowa eastward.

[hlcater]

Wow.  This euro run is even better than I thought.  It shows what may be the greatest clipper of all time for the I-80 corridor from Iowa eastward.

Widespread 15-20+" for the uninitiated. The clipper to crown them all lol.

[ToastedRavs]

I hate the hockey teams from Alberta, but they can send their clippers all the time if they end up like what the King Euro is showing!!

[Hawkeye]

The euro follows it with -30s and -40s across Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

We're starting to actually plummet to below normal on the month, after the stupidly warm start. Of course, Ken Dewey is MAKING SURE to remind us that weather isn't climate. Dr. Dewey used to be a nice source for Lincoln climate info, but recently he's gone off the deep end and is now a full-blown AGW fear mongerer. Can't have below normal temps without him reminding everyone that temps are above normal in other parts of the globe. He's losing his credibility fast. Sorry for the rant. Just hate when people try to use weather as a political platform.

+100 Nice post.

 

The AGW's switched from Global Warning to Climate Change because they deep down realized AGW is full of it-- buy using Climte Change they get to argue what they think ALL the time. Weather isn't climate is BS. Without weather there would be no ClimateS (emphasized plural).

[Grizzcoat]

The euro follows it with -30s and -40s across Iowa.

Never seem a Euro run like that ever. Doesn't mean its got to happen - but wowsers ; what potential.

[hlcater]

The globe is most certainly warming. There’s plenty empirical data to support that hypothesis. For me, the issue is what to do about it. This isn’t a politics forum so I’m just not gonna get into that...

[Grizzcoat]

^ I'am not saying the globe isnt warming. Just why? Natural? or Human caused? or a mix of both and if so- how is that figured out to what extent what is causing what? To me- (20+ years making a living in the weather/climate field) it comes down to rising ocean temps emitting more water vapor.

 

 https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html

[ToastedRavs]

Did some digging. Last time Des Moines had a double digit snow depth was Feb 2 2015...at 10 inches. That's a long time for somewhere this far north. I think they'll be over the threshold today, finally. I am at 11 just SW of the airport

[Grizzcoat]

16 day GFS and other garbage we all have seen similar maps. But has anyone seen a 7 day EURO look like this?? For the Midwest? Heck the Windy City has more snow the Rockies. Of course this counts in the current event unfolding; but still very impressive.

 

[Grizzcoat]

The Clipper featured in Rudoplh the Rednosed Reindeer-- "And than it hit"--

 

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

This is also worthy- just imagine the hardship this would cause here in C.IA- really most places. This is BRUTAL. 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.60  LON =  -93.88

                                            00Z JAN23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
WED 00Z 23-JAN  -5.5    -6.6    1017      89      97    0.00     548     535   
WED 06Z 23-JAN  -8.3    -8.7    1017      86      91    0.19     544     531   
WED 12Z 23-JAN -10.0   -11.1    1018      84      96    0.12     538     524   
WED 18Z 23-JAN -10.9    -6.4    1018      80      33    0.01     539     525   
THU 00Z 24-JAN -13.1    -5.3    1015      82      74    0.00     538     526   
THU 06Z 24-JAN -11.3    -5.5    1014      80      57    0.00     538     527   
THU 12Z 24-JAN  -5.0    -9.2    1017      82      38    0.00     536     522   
THU 18Z 24-JAN -12.8   -14.9    1027      70       8    0.00     532     512   
FRI 00Z 25-JAN -16.9   -20.4    1029      69      32    0.00     527     505   
FRI 06Z 25-JAN -22.9   -17.9    1031      73      19    0.00     529     506   
FRI 12Z 25-JAN -24.3   -14.6    1027      73      20    0.00     532     511   
FRI 18Z 25-JAN -14.3    -8.9    1022      73     100    0.00     534     517   
SAT 00Z 26-JAN -13.2   -11.6    1022      81      15    0.00     533     516   
SAT 06Z 26-JAN -21.3   -12.8    1027      80      24    0.00     534     513   
SAT 12Z 26-JAN -24.9   -12.1    1026      85      49    0.00     533     514   
SAT 18Z 26-JAN -12.1    -8.6    1020      81      91    0.03     535     520   
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -4.7    -6.9    1013      83      75    0.00     537     526   
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  -3.8    -5.1    1010      94      94    0.10     535     527   
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  -9.4    -7.5    1015      82      82    0.02     537     526   
SUN 18Z 27-JAN -14.5    -7.9    1019      69      45    0.01     542     528   
MON 00Z 28-JAN -15.4    -4.1    1013      77      94    0.04     542     532   
MON 06Z 28-JAN -14.6    -2.5    1009      84      93    0.09     540     533   
MON 12Z 28-JAN -16.6    -7.2    1009      82      90    0.28     535     528   
MON 18Z 28-JAN -15.2   -16.8    1015      80      92    0.11     530     519   
TUE 00Z 29-JAN -16.7   -20.9    1020      77      99    0.02     526     511   
TUE 06Z 29-JAN -20.5   -21.8    1023      75      87    0.01     522     505   
TUE 12Z 29-JAN -22.5   -22.8    1025      73      98    0.00     519     501   
TUE 18Z 29-JAN -21.1   -25.1    1026      68      28    0.00     514     494   
WED 00Z 30-JAN -23.5   -26.7    1027      68      65    0.00     509     489   
WED 06Z 30-JAN -28.1   -27.7    1027      68      78    0.00     508     488   
WED 12Z 30-JAN -32.7   -27.9    1027      74      91    0.00     507     488   
WED 18Z 30-JAN -29.7   -25.7    1028      73      47    0.00     508     488   
THU 00Z 31-JAN -30.9   -26.6    1031      75      53    0.00     510     488   
THU 06Z 31-JAN -33.9   -25.9    1033      70      12    0.00     521     497   
THU 12Z 31-JAN -38.5   -22.5    1035      70      15    0.00     530     506   
THU 18Z 31-JAN -32.2   -21.4    1038      69      57    0.00     535     508   
FRI 00Z 01-FEB -28.9   -17.7    1036      71      99    0.00     536     510   
FRI 06Z 01-FEB -28.1   -16.9    1039      72      66    0.00     540     513   
FRI 12Z 01-FEB -30.1   -15.0    1040      73      59    0.00     543     515   
FRI 18Z 01-FEB -25.7   -13.0    1042      68      57    0.00     546     516   
SAT 00Z 02-FEB -25.1   -11.7    1040      72      86    0.00     546     517

[james1976]

WTH?? That would the clipper of all time followed by insane cold. Not getting sucked in though. Too far out

[Tom]

My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true.

 

For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy...

 

Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.

[james1976]

Yeah I wonder what ratios would be. Some serious fluff.

[VMB443]

My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true.

 

For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy...

 

Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.

This winter is going from pitiful to awesome pretty quickly here!

[St Paul Storm]

My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true.

 

For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy...

 

Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.

Congrats Tom! Good luck to everyone that is going to score with this. Looks like a nice hit for many of you. Wow.

[Tom]

Folks, the Jan '19 "Heartland Snow Blitz" is about to turn into high gear.  I've spent a good amount of time this morning digesting overnight data and models are in remarkable agreement that the same areas which are seeing snow today will be in the vicinity of the heaviest snow band late this weekend into the early part of next week.  The wx pattern setting up over the next 10 days is a Winter Wx enthusiasts Dream if you Love the Vicious Arctic cold and numerous chances of snow!  IMO, we are about to enter a Historic stretch, one I felt would eventually come later this month and the models are certainly painting the picture and dialing in smack dab in the heartland of the nation.  Deep down inside, I had this good feeling that the MW and areas nearby would be in the ideal local to be placed in the hot spot of where this Winter would turn very cold/snowy.  If indeed the models are right and the LR modeling, this pattern is about as loaded and locked for a longgg duration wintry period.  Not to mention, there is a "pullback" or relaxation showing up late in Week 2 but I'll dive into that a bit later on.

 

As mentioned above, there is a strong indication that a powerful PAC wave driving S/SE out of SE Canada late this weekend and tracking right through the MW....slowly pivoting the region as an ideal Blocking Pattern sets up across the N ATL and just N of the GL's region across SE Canada to deliver another 'bout of possibly significant snows.  I've started a storm thread for this potential....http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1947-jan-27th-29th-potential-strong-clipper/

[Tom]

Congrats Tom! Good luck to everyone that is going to score with this. Looks like a nice hit for many of you. Wow.

Thanks my man, even though it was one of those insanely runs I've ever seen, the reality is, it is just a computer model run.  Although, my attn is there for a walloping Clipper and I like where I sit ATM.  Man, but the vicious cold that is lurking next week is scary.  I have never witnessed -20F or colder temps and both the GFS/Euro are suggesting near all-time record cold.  That's dangerous cold for many of us on here.

[james1976]

The pattern setting up reminds me a bit of '13-'14