January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

While in full on winter mode, I've fired up a February Discussion...http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1948-february-2019-observations-and-discussion/

[westMJim]

Here is where Grand Rapids stands on this current event. The total snow fall over night here at my house is 1.7" of very wet snow the snow fell as a mix of snow and rain the snow has now became all rain here with a temperature of 32.9° there is now a total of 4" of snow on the ground here at my house.

[Hawkeye]

As much as some of these model runs get me excited, the last couple storms are a good reminder that model maps often don't pan out.  If models suggest 8-12", expect 6-8".  If they suggest 6-8", expect 3-6".  Heck, even my conservative expectations haven't been met recently.

[Snowshoe]

The rich get richer. Man northern Wisconsin can't catch a break this winter. 

 

My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true.

 

For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy...

 

Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.

[Stacsh]

Here is where Grand Rapids stands on this current event. The total snow fall over night here at my house is 1.7" of very wet snow the snow fell as a mix of snow and rain the snow has now became all rain here with a temperature of 32.9° there is now a total of 4" of snow on the ground here at my house.

 

We got about 3.5" in Grand Haven, more to the north where it stayed a few degrees colder.  Sharp cutoff.  The roads got a lot better as I drove into GR. 

[East Dubzz]

While I would love to lock in that clipper, I also wouldn’t mind a clipper train of some 2-4” storms or so. Just nice to actually see snow again.

[Niko]

My forecast for next week looks like 2013-14.....wow. Looks very snowy as well.

[Niko]

Currently very light drizzle and a temp of 34F. Very icy conditions out there. A lot of schools are closed today, including the Detroit Public Schools.

[Beltrami Island]

The rich get richer. Man northern Wisconsin can't catch a break this winter.

If you wanna see who really can't catch a break snowise, parts of nw Ontario still only have 2-4" snow depths.

[Minny_Weather]

Full sun here. Amazing how fast the clouds moved out. We'll see a bit of melting today but shouldn't be too much. 16.7*F.

[Stormgeek]

Always fun seeing a model that paints a snow hole over you while both north and south get slammed. This whole "2 storms, 1 north, 1 south" act is getting a bit silly. Current conditions on the ground are about 1.5 inches snow on top of an inch of ice on non-concrete. But hey at least it is going to get unbearably cold! x_x On a brighter note let's hope that clipper can deliver the goods!

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks my man, even though it was one of those insanely runs I've ever seen, the reality is, it is just a computer model run.  Although, my attn is there for a walloping Clipper and I like where I sit ATM.  Man, but the vicious cold that is lurking next week is scary.  I have never witnessed -20F or colder temps and both the GFS/Euro are suggesting near all-time record cold.  That's dangerous cold for many of us on here.

I’ll never forget 2 days after we bought our house here in MN in Jan 2014 the low dropped to -22F. That was the coldest temp I’d ever witnessed. And I remember thinking to myself ‘I’m gonna like this place.’ Areas with deep snowpack are really gonna feel the brunt of this cold. I just don’t see a way temps can get that cold without snow OTG however. Our 1” isn’t going to cut it. We’ll see. The potential is definitely there for something special.

[james1976]

How bout those winds coming with the arctic cold. Blizzard warnings and winter storm watches for Dakots and MN for ground blizzard conditions.

[jaster220]

Wow.  This euro run is even better than I thought.  It shows what may be the greatest clipper of all time for the I-80 corridor from Iowa eastward.

 

Thus a great reason to be very very wary. We saw this kind of stuff on models with last weekend's "monster" system

[CentralNebWeather]

Don't know about anywhere else, but our school district has an epidemic of influenza.  1/2 of our 8th graders were sick on Monday.  I coach 7th grade basketball and of our 19 players on the team, 12 were sick on Monday.  I had an asst. coach miss 4 of the 5 days last week along with 2 games.Seems like it is the worst in grades 5-8 which is our Middle School.  I teach at the high school and most of my classes average 15-25 kids.  Yesterday 5-7 kids were gone from every period.   I don't think we are that far away from calling off due to sickness.  The saving grace is that it hasn't really hit the teachers.  When they can't find enough subs, school will have to close.  

[Minny_Weather]

Don't know about anywhere else, but our school district has an epidemic of influenza.  1/2 of our 8th graders were sick on Monday.  I coach 7th grade basketball and of our 19 players on the team, 12 were sick on Monday.  I had an asst. coach miss 4 of the 5 days last week along with 2 games.Seems like it is the worst in grades 5-8 which is our Middle School.  I teach at the high school and most of my classes average 15-25 kids.  Yesterday 5-7 kids were gone from every period.   I don't think we are that far away from calling off due to sickness.  The saving grace is that it hasn't really hit the teachers.  When they can't find enough subs, school will have to close.  

Last year one of my classes had half the students gone, and I had 2 that just got cancelled due to the professors being sick. I somehow never came down with the flu (though I admittedly faked it once) despite how bad the epidemic across the state was.

[Yerf]

Friday morning windchills

[East Dubzz]

Friday Morning temp departures

That’s the temperature anomaly and not the actual temp, right? Still going to be very cold, but worth noting.

[Niko]

Currently a balmy 38F w light rain. Still, snowcover around and ice as well.

[Beltrami Island]

Last year one of my classes had half the students gone, and I had 2 that just got cancelled due to the professors being sick. I somehow never came down with the flu (though I admittedly faked it once) despite how bad the epidemic across the state was.

They closed school last Friday here due to influenza. Turned a 3day weekend into 4. I guess it was a train of kids walking out the door legitimately sick on thursday.

I think mn has a rule that if a high enough % of kids are out sick one day the school must close for at least the next day.

[CentralNebWeather]

They closed school last Friday here due to influenza. Turned a 3day weekend into 4. I guess it was a train of kids walking out the door legitimately sick on thursday.

I think mn has a rule that if a high enough % of kids are out sick one day the school must close for at least the next day.

I think our school has that policy, though I don't know about specific percentages.  They always mention availability of subs as even more important.  My asst. coach from the Middle School just emailed me and said they are calling it "The Plague" over there.  Just in the last hour, 3 of my 7th grade players have emailed me that they are being sent home.  Might have a very small group at practice today.

[Stacsh]

GRR hinting at quite the LES event/events coming our way.  Along with system snow.  Gonna be a hell of ride the next 10 days here.  It pays to have a warm start to winter.  The Big Lake is prime to unleash it's warmth.  

[jaster220]

GRR hinting at quite the LES event/events coming our way.  Along with system snow.  Gonna be a hell of ride the next 10 days here.  It pays to have a warm start to winter.  The Big Lake is prime to unleash it's warmth.  

 

Yeah, you should be pumped. Gonna finally be your stretch up there. Your patience will hopefully be rewarded 

[Money]

That is some stupid cold on 18z gfs

 

Wind chills of -65 in Minnesota/WI

 

Actual temps of -30 to -35

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&rh=2019012318&fh=162&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[WBadgersW]

Yeah that's scary cold

[East Dubzz]

Interested to see how the models continue to portray the cold Friday morning. GFS, Euro, CMC, & RGEM all seem to indicate air temps dipping into upper negative teens, while the NAM is more around -10. NWS seems to be siding with the NAM for now, but that’ll be interest to monitor.

 

Edit: I take that back. They’re forecasting a low of -14. So right in the middle.

[ToastedRavs]

First time Des Moines has had double digit snow depth since GHD blizzard in 2015!! All I can say it's about time!!

[East Dubzz]

First time Des Moines has had double digit snow depth since GHD blizzard in 2015!! All I can say it's about time!!

Indeed. Not quite sure it’s doubt digit here, but’s irs deep and not going anywhere soon. I hope we can continue to pile on. Make up for what has been a very disappointing few winters in a row!

[Minny_Weather]

I'd say we have about 7" here in Lincoln. We're gonna have 2 at freezing days and one day around 40 here this weekend before the bottom drops off but I'm thinking the snowcover should stay intact after that shitshow.

[snowstorm83]

I'd say we have about 7" here in Lincoln. We're gonna have 2 at freezing days and one day around 40 here this weekend before the bottom drops off but I'm thinking the snowcover should stay intact after that shitshow.

 

The past couple of weeks with snow cover have underperformed temps most days, so I have my doubts we'll reach 40, but we'll see if this weekend is different. 

[Niko]

Cold air now rushing in here as the coldwave begins Friday.

[Niko]

Some snowshowers tomorrow could accumulate an inch IMBY. Temps staying in the 20s and then teens for highs during remainder of the weekend w on and off snowshowers.

[East Dubzz]

The cold on the GFS is just crazy. It won’t verify, but the GFS takes DBQ below 0 degrees on Monday night, and doesn’t get back above 0 until Saturday.

[Hawkeye]

00z euro - Thursday morning

 

[Tom]

Rise and Shine on this bitter cold morning in Chicagoland!  Under clear skies, calm winds, temps have dipped to 11F (single digits NW of here) which is balmy if you consider where we are heading.  Nature is about to unleash her fury and the idea of Vicious shots of cold this month seemingly are becoming clearer later next week.  I had a gut feeling we would be re-writing History this month and the magnitude of the cold coming is down, right, scary.  Looking on the bright side, most, if not all, of our members who will be in the worst of the cold, have a decent snow pack to insulate any underground pipes.

 

 

 

 

 

We'll be adding to this gorgeous and deep snow pack across the MW from the late weekend/early week Clipper and several weaker waves before the main event.  It's been a number of years since IA has had such a nice snow pack, ay?  Glad to see the IA snow magnet this year unlike year's past.  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm thinking of starting a thread for the "Polar Vortex Party" next week...thoughts???

[westMJim]

Not a very good nights sleep for me last night was up with a very bad coughing spell and chills. Took my temperature and I have a fever of 101.3 So I took a coupe of advel and had something to drink and will go back to bed and try and get some sleep. Lake Michigan keeps much of Michigan warmer in the winter time and that is the case this AM the current temperature here is 26.4 with cloudy skies and there is 2.5" of snow on the ground. There will be lake effect over the next few day just not sure as to how much. But there could be some very low VISIBILITIES that is for sure. This is from this AM GRR discussion

  

"AS FAR AS TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
FRIDAY, STILL GOING FOR 3-6 INCHES NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 131 AND  
AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER EAST. SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY BECOME FINE/SMALL  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE DGZ LOWERS CLOSER TO THE GROUND,  
SO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DECREASES BUT VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POOR."

[Tom]

Not a very good nights sleep for me last night was up with a very bad coughing spell and chills. Took my temperature and I have a fever of 101.3 So I took a coupe of advel and had something to drink and will go back to bed and try and get some sleep. Lake Michigan keeps much of Michigan warmer in the winter time and that is the case this AM the current temperature here is 26.4 with cloudy skies and there is 2.5" of snow on the ground. There will be lake effect over the next few day just not sure as to how much. But there could be some very low VISIBILITIES that is for sure. This is from this AM GRR discussion

  

"AS FAR AS TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  

FRIDAY, STILL GOING FOR 3-6 INCHES NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 131 AND  

AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER EAST. SNOWFLAKE SIZE MAY BECOME FINE/SMALL  

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE DGZ LOWERS CLOSER TO THE GROUND,  

SO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DECREASES BUT VISIBILITIES AND TRAVEL  

CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POOR."

Hope you get better bud!  Rest, Recover and Relax...only way to do it when you catch a cold/fever.  I'm glad to hear that you guys near the lake will finally benefit from a warm Lake Michigan when the extreme cold hits and holds.  Looks like the fun and games of LES on the eastern shores of LM is finally knocking on your doorstep!

[Tom]

00z Euro is showing multiple weak disturbances through Noon on Sun around the area that may lay down a couple inches before the bigger Clipper arrives late Sun-Mon.  I'm sure we'll have a lot of happy faces in MI.  Gosh, the signal for some nasty lake streamers is the real deal.

 

Come to think of it, I remember back in Jan '14 we had similar disturbances out ahead of the Arctic Attacks which brought some very intense instability snow showers.  The coming few days could end up transpiring in a similar fashion.  I won't be surprised if some peeps locally experience some intense snow showers along the arctic fronts outside of the snow belts.

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up some surprise snow this morning. Roads are a mess. Winds are really starting to howl already. Temp crashing throughout the day, down to -4F by afternoon.

[gosaints]

Ensembles not as bullish on the cold as the ops. We shall.see if the catch up. The gfs is quite windy as well.