January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

FV3 looking much more wintry starting next weekend. 

Could make for an interesting Chiefs game.

[Minny_Weather]

One facet where FV3 deserves credit is the fact that it's been good at sniffing out storms this Winter. It has not been good at all with amounts or strength, but it's been good at just showing storms that end up playing out.

[Niko]

WWA for my area as freezing drizzle and light snow could cause travel issues. Temsp are below freezing w freezing drizzle currently.

[Minny_Weather]

In addition to that storm (which is a pipe dream), the FV3 also just looks colder and snowier in general -- particularly colder. 

 

I'll be in Fargo then so bring on the -42 air temps! 

[Stacsh]

The futurecast has a couple of systems down the road, but not even looking at them attm. Way to soon. Its good though that models are seeing LP's. Just hope they don't fade out as the event nears.

 

GRR mentions widespread 40's maybe even 50 this weekend. ugh  Currently 1" of new snow today, maybe 1" more to go.  It will be short lived and melt quickly.  

[gimmesnow]

 Three horrible winters in a row have me scared, specially since solar activity is so low now and has been for a while. Another month of the pattern changing next week until mid Feb when winter is cancelled.

[Niko]

GRR mentions widespread 40's maybe even 50 this weekend. ugh  Currently 1" of new snow today, maybe 1" more to go.  It will be short lived and melt quickly.  

Try into the 50s. I can see records being broken.

 

Jaster might go for tanning on the lake

[Niko]

For the Jan 7th -8th system, my forecast is calling RAIN. Temps in the upper 30s to near 40. Colder and dryer for Wednesday. El Nino in full force. This is Winter 2015-16 repeat or 2011-12.

[Niko]

 Three horrible winters in a row have me scared, specially since solar activity is so low now and has been for a while. Another month of the pattern changing next week until mid Feb when winter is cancelled.

Dont hold your breathe. The Pacific Jet is in full force. Its hard to break that mild, pacific air flow. If I dont see a pattern change by the mid January as projected, I am rooting for February, after that, I am rooting for Spring.

[St Paul Storm]

No highs below 32F for at least the next 7 days starting tomorrow. Possible record highs on Friday and Saturday, with 50F possible. I say bring it. If it ain’t gonna snow in mid winter, let’s roll with the warmth. Can’t do anything about. Might as well enjoy it.

[jaster220]

@Tom

 

Great analysis in your morning posts. I've been on the road all day and was too busy to check on anything wx-wise but was hoping to find out that increased blocking may bring the 7-8th system back on the table for MI. Thx for confirming models are seeing the potential. Whether it can follow thru or not remains to be seen, but it's a nice possibility at least. Otherwise, I hope the LRC tracking pays dividends and the rest of what you're laying out comes to fruition for everyone's sake.

[jaster220]

Upper Peninsula got chilly last night. Saw a -20F and numerous teens below zero. At least it's winter somewhere..

[Niko]

Currently 29F w freezing drizzle.

[Tom]

One of the more important mistakes and learning experiences this winter has been the anticipated NE PAC ridge which has failed to materialize in Dec and thus far into January. In the months of Oct/Nov, we did see the NE PAC ridge flex its muscles but has since been non existent and the jet has been slamming into the west coast. In seasons past, with such warm water tucked into the NE PAC, that ridge had no problem blossoming. This season, I think the jet has just been to strong it seems. Everything else seems to be going as planned with the SSW event already taken place, -AO/-NAO, but the EPO has not been cooperating.

 

Today's JMA weeklies literally blow torch the entire nation and even Canada over the next 2 weeks and have flipped with no arctic blocking and NW NAMER ridge. Here are the Week 1 temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201901.D0212_gl2.png

 

Week 2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201901.D0212_gl2.png

 

 

Maybe, just maybe the pattern decides to flip into Week 3-4 but I'm beginning to wonder...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201901.D0212_gl2.png

 

 

The SOI has begun to crash and is steadily negative which usually is a cattle prod to atmospheric changes over N. A. in the Week 1-2 period.

 

Average SOI for last 30 days 7.42 Average SOI for last 90 days 4.31 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.00

 

Monthly average SOI values Oct 2.61 Nov 0.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

As JB pointed out yesterday, this year there is just to much warm water in the PAC oceans and not enough cold pockets to create that contrast which results in deeper troughs where the "cool" pockets of water are located. One thing is for certain, the waters in the NE PAC have cooled off dramatically since the early Autumn and could be a culprit to less extensive ridging in this region. Check out the current SST's compared to just 1 month ago.

 

Current....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201901.D0212_gls.png

 

Dec 4th...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201812.D0512_gls.png

 

 

As we continue to progress through the month, I'm really curious is this ridge pops or not. Time will tell.

 

In other news, China's rover lands on the far side of the moon...the space race continues...wonder if they will ever show any evidence of bases on the "dark side"...

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/02/world/asia/china-change-4-moon.html

[Tom]

Last night's 00z EPS agrees with the JMA, cold Arctic/+EPO/+AO into Week 2 = Blow Torch nation....unbelievable...I don't think I've ever seen such a thing post SSW.  Meanwhile, GEFS still suggesting a -AO pattern but is starting to lean more neutral in the EPO in the 6-10 day range, flipping from the -EPO it was showing for a number of days during this period.

 

In the meantime, there will be storms to track but trying to pin down who gets what is going to be a difficult task at this range.  Nonetheless, models are pointing towards a decent opportunity during the 11th-12th period that the northern half of the sub to be in the game.  The 00z Euro is showing widespread 2-5" totals from SD into N IA/MN/ N IL/WI/MI.  The GFS is a bit more aggressive and lays down a significant swath of snow in this general region.  I'm having flashbacks of last year's Nina pattern with this particular set up.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Tom your coming down with a case of the modelties!  Don't loose faith in what you know about the LRC!

[East Dubzz]

Just a bunch of rain on the GFS here. Gross!

[Grizzcoat]

I even think - he would never show it openly - JB knows he busted. On Dec 31st- even he sounded down about the EURO not agreeing with him. For an example - DSM for the month of DEC was +4.9F compared to the 30 yr avg's. IF the cold comes- it certainly is not coming TO STAY any earlier than the 15th of this month. So let's say the first 15 days of JAN avg +10F (which it easily could)-- that would mean that the first half of winter has avg  +6.3F for DSM, Weatherbell forecast is for D-J-F to be -3F. So that means that rest of the winter through FEB 28th would have to avg  -9.57F to meet that winter forecast of -3F. Sorry- that is not happening.  sorry for the negativity - but it's is what is.

[james1976]

Just a bunch of rain on the GFS here. Gross!

Been a lot of that this winter

[james1976]

I'm gonna enjoy the 50F weather this weekend. Definitely gonna turn on the grill.

[james1976]

7th-8th looks like another rainer. However that tight baroclinic zone setting up late next week looks interesting. Will it hold?

[gosaints]

I even think - he would never show it openly - JB knows he busted. On Dec 31st- even he sounded down about the EURO not agreeing with him. For an example - DSM for the month of DEC was +4.9F compared to the 30 yr avg's. IF the cold comes- it certainly is not coming TO STAY any earlier than the 15th of this month. So let's say the first 15 days of JAN avg +10F (which it easily could)-- that would mean that the first half of winter has avg  +6.3F for DSM, Weatherbell forecast is for D-J-F to be -3F. So that means that rest of the winter through FEB 28th would have to avg  -9.57F to meet that winter forecast of -3F. Sorry- that is not happening.  sorry for the negativity - but it's is what is.

JB is gonna JB....

[Tom]

Tom your coming down with a case of the modelties! Don't loose faith in what you know about the LRC!

Don't get me wrong, I've never lost faith in the LRC, but moreso, into how certain players on the field are performing. It's funny, my comments this morning almost mimic exactly what JB pointed out in his daily video (esp Strat Warming and SOI) and probably the blocking which are not really transpiring the weather conditions as one would expect across the U.S. The LRC is cycling and I'm counting on the other factors that "influence" the cycling pattern to start creating a favorable pattern for snow storms.

[CentralNebWeather]

I don’t remember JB being this down in one of his videos. Says if things don’t change in the next 2 weeks his winter forecast will likely bust. I think he feels bad in that many pay for his service and everything he is looking at says cold but the opposite is occurring.

[westMJim]

Yesterday Kent county was in a WWA and the total snow fall  was 0.8” Here at my house I have .7” of snow on the ground. The seasonal total here at Grand Rapids is now at 18.4” The snow drought continues.  While we are now at 24 days in a row of above average temperatures not long ago Grand Rapids had 47 days in a row of above average temperatures from December 22^nd 2005 to February 7^th 2006. That winter there was no long lasting cold from mid December to April the total snow fall from mid December to April 23.3" The total for the winter season was 69.2" but 17.3" came in November and 25.9" came in the first two weeks of December.

[badgerwx]

I'm starting to get the feeling the winter is more than likely a bust, which in itself is annoying. However, even more annoying are the number of people blaming this winters lack of snow and bitter cold on global warming...

[GDR]

There is no such thing as global warming

[badgerwx]

There is no such thing as global warming

100% agree

[gosaints]

JB being down shouldnt hurt anyones mode.  If he is ever right it is mostly sheer luck...

[gosaints]

The old European vortex split is on the table

[Niko]

Currently 32F w cloudy skies. Big time warm -up coming for the weekend as temps approach the upper 40s w sunshine and a very good possibility hitting the 50s.

[Niko]

As per the system early next week, Ma Nature provides a saving grace by dropping a dry CF through my area and sets up MBY w snow chances, but outta nowhere comes a WF that will change everything over to plain rain. That rain will continue into Wednesday b4 turning colder and drier. I am hoping that WF doesn't come too far north, but all models are agreeing so far that it will, unless we get a surprise, which I highly doubt it.

[Niko]

FWIW: Snow fell in the desert SW, if you can believe that. Phoenix, AZ also had a record low of 30F last night.

 

TBH: I believe at some point (hopefully) we will get this pattern change. Now, whether it is in a few weeks, Feb or March, at some point, we will get a share the wealth snowstorm. Attm, we just all have to sit back and relax and try to dream of snow covering our BY's.

 

EDIT: Snow is expected to fall in Athens, Greece tanite. Rain/snow mix changing to all snow. Temps dropping in the upper 20s in the hard of Athens. Dang! Friends N family there are all excited about that change ova.

[james1976]

Winter Storm Warning for OKC 4-6"

[gimmesnow]

If this January doesn't turn around by MLKJr day, I'm going to start to get really worried about SE Wisconsin ski resorts.

[Stormhunter87]

So was just reading that they are seeing a split in the polar vortex. Three parts could be interesting. https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html

[james1976]

So was just reading that they are seeing a split in the polar vortex. Three parts could be interesting. https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html

Nice read. Thanks for posting.

[jaster220]

Try into the 50s. I can see records being broken.

 

Jaster might go for tanning on the lake

 

   Are you looking at a forecast from last October or something?? I have a pair of 42's for highs this weekend - hardly beach temps 

[Niko]

   Are you looking at a forecast from last October or something?? I have a pair of 42's for highs this weekend - hardly beach temps 

My forecast saids 46F and 47F, but w abundant sunshine, temps have a real possibility of nearing 50F or betta.

 

If you have sunshine w temps in the low 40s (42's), your temp has a possibility of being higher than 42F. I'd say somewhere between 45-50F.

[jaster220]

JB being down shouldnt hurt anyones mode.  If he is ever right it is mostly sheer luck...

 

I doubt anyone's mode (or mood for that matter) is hurt. As for his luck or lack of, he's just one person of known stature who's trying to improve very long range forecasting, aka seasonal forecasting, based on his experiences and knowledge of how various atmospheric players interact. Same with Dr. Judah Cohen and they both have endured their busts. Because those two professionals are taking a huge risk where others are not able or willing doesn't mean peeps should be critical when/if they fail. We all learn by trying and failing. Some would say that you aren't truly learning if you're not failing. Our own sub Moderator Tom has admitted to a miss with his expected turn to cold in December. JB is only one (of pretty much all known) LR guru's who went "winter of yore" cold and snowy for much of the E CONUS, yet the most hate seems to be directed towards one guy. That's not right.