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2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread


Thunder98

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As of today (May 7), the average high at LA Civic Center is 70.43, which would be the 32nd coolest May on history if it were to end today. With 24 days left, a lot can happen. It's possible the upper low over the weekend could partially disrupt the marine layer again like the cutoff low did Monday and we could see a little more sunshine, but 3 of the last 4 Mays have been below normal while most of the other months have been above normal.

 

Seems that it used to be May Gray would start around Memorial Day weekend and June Gloom would last for the first 2-3 weeks of June before the Four Corners High took over. Last couple of years have had more May Gray and less June Gloom.

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Another thing. June 2003 was one of the gloomiest Junes ever with at least 8 days where the high did not reach 70 in Fullerton, and conditions finally becoming more summer-like a few days after the Solstice. The solstice itself was cloudy up into the mountain passes all day.

 

June 2009 was also exceptionally cool and troughy, but with warmer SSTs than 2003 and an even deeper marine layer on average than 2003. The deeper marine layer allowed for more reverse clearing days keeping areas near the beaches and a few miles inland warmer than 2009. The more interesting place for June 2009 was Palm Springs, where the deep marine layer not clearing the mountain passes many days caused those days in the desert to have highs only in the mid 80s. According to the WRCC data, Palm Springs was headed towards the coolest June on record for average high temperature in 2009 until a strong ridge finally built in by the end of the month and ended their chances to break that.

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Another thing. June 2003 was one of the gloomiest Junes ever with at least 8 days where the high did not reach 70 in Fullerton, and conditions finally becoming more summer-like a few days after the Solstice. The solstice itself was cloudy up into the mountain passes all day.

 

June 2009 was also exceptionally cool and troughy, but with warmer SSTs than 2003 and an even deeper marine layer on average than 2003. The deeper marine layer allowed for more reverse clearing days keeping areas near the beaches and a few miles inland warmer than 2009. The more interesting place for June 2009 was Palm Springs, where the deep marine layer not clearing the mountain passes many days caused those days in the desert to have highs only in the mid 80s. According to the WRCC data, Palm Springs was headed towards the coolest June on record for average high temperature in 2009 until a strong ridge finally built in by the end of the month and ended their chances to break that.

I remember that June (2009). The only time we had thunderstorms in June. Temecula got 0.15" from it if I remember correctly.

 

Personally, I hope we get a good monsoon this summer, like we did in 2015 and 2016.

 

 

 

 

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Actually, May is the month that has warmed the most significantly over the period of record at LA Civic Center.  In this century, only one May has averaged below normal.  That was in 2015, and then only by a fraction of a degree.

 

You have to back to 1999 to find a May that was more than one degree cooler than normal.  Perhaps we can beat that this month.

You might be referring to the average overall temperatures rather than the average highs. The marine layer keeps nights above average and days below average and it's the average high that really matters. No one cares if it is cloudy at night. 3 of the last 4 Mays have averaged between 71 and 72 for the high in Downtown L.A, which is in the top third for coolest Mays ever.

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OK, here we have 2015 (71.45, #45), 2016 (71.61, #52), and 2018 (71.97, #57). So not quite as cool as thought in the rankings, but still in the bottom 50% with a warming climate.

 

Rank,Year,AvgHigh
1,1921,65.13
2,1917,65.77
3,1914,67.26
4,1909,67.97
5,1919,68.16
6,1946,68.35
7,1933,68.58
8,1903,68.61
9,1906,68.74
10,1901,68.84
11,1899,68.94
12,1918,69.13
13,1908,69.13
14,1977,69.16
15,1905,69.19
16,1913,69.23
17,1898,69.26
18,1935,69.29
19,1891,69.39
20,1915,69.81
21,1911,69.87
22,1894,70.00
23,1916,70.06
24,1950,70.10
25,1975,70.32
26,1920,70.35
27,1999,70.39
28,1964,70.39
29,1982,70.42
30,1980,70.42
31,1930,70.42
32,1907,70.48
33,1925,70.52
34,1904,70.58
35,1897,70.81
36,1963,70.90
37,1902,70.90
38,1944,70.94
39,1995,71.00
40,1945,71.00
41,1955,71.03
42,1971,71.06
43,1961,71.06
44,1962,71.10
45,1998,71.23
46,1937,71.23
47,1928,71.39
48,2015,71.45
49,1932,71.48
50,1966,71.58
51,1938,71.58
52,2016,71.61
53,1912,71.61
54,1939,71.74
55,1922,71.84
56,1957,71.87
57,2018,71.97
58,1965,71.97
59,1878,71.97
60,1954,72.03
61,1994,72.10
62,1892,72.13
63,1976,72.16
64,1942,72.16
65,1991,72.23
66,1890,72.29
67,1910,72.43
68,2002,72.48
69,1974,72.48
70,1947,72.48
71,1884,72.65
72,1956,72.71
73,1924,72.71
74,1888,72.77
75,1959,72.81
76,1951,72.90
77,2003,73.03
78,1893,73.03
79,1927,73.10
80,2012,73.19
81,1968,73.29
82,1889,73.32
83,1953,73.55
84,2010,73.58
85,2007,73.58
86,1949,73.61
87,2011,73.65
88,1926,73.68
89,1979,73.71
90,1929,73.71
91,1923,73.77
92,1895,73.87
93,1879,73.87
94,1936,73.94
95,1880,73.97
96,1989,74.00
97,1985,74.10
98,1973,74.13
99,1948,74.23
100,2006,74.26
101,2008,74.29
102,1969,74.29
103,1900,74.35
104,1896,74.48
105,1943,74.81
106,1990,75.00
107,1881,75.13
108,1940,75.29
109,2017,75.35
110,2009,75.35
111,1931,75.42
112,2001,75.52
113,1883,75.74
114,1992,75.84
115,1981,75.84
116,2005,75.90
117,1882,76.00
118,2000,76.19
119,1970,76.26
120,1988,76.42
121,1885,76.45
122,2013,76.48
123,1972,76.48
124,1967,76.48
125,1934,76.58
126,1952,76.77
127,1987,76.87
128,1993,77.00
129,1996,77.13
130,1960,77.13
131,1986,77.19
132,1958,77.39
133,1983,77.61
134,1887,77.74
135,1941,77.97
136,1886,78.58
137,1978,78.87
138,2004,79.00
139,2014,80.03
140,1997,81.45
141,1984,82.23

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Palm Springs forecast high of 90 F looks WAAAYYY off if the marine layer refuses to clear out of the San Gorgonio Pass today, which so far seems to be the case. I'm going to go with another high in the low 80s again for them and say my own forecast is better than NOAA.

 

I was there 2 years ago in a similar situation and the wind was blowing like crazy all day and the evening quickly cooled down as the winds generated by the cold air trapped in the pass overpowered the lowering sun.

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Another dark day that makes the writers of "My Girl" look stupid.

 

When it's cold outside, I've got the month of May.

 

For California, that's a self-descriptive statement.

 

Well... they wanted to rhyme with day, say, and way so "May" fit well.

 

And in many places... May is a fairly sunny month when everything comes to life. During the dead of winter, people in colder climates often think ahead to the sun and warmth of May when everything is in bloom and green. The Temptations were based in Detroit. They probably did not write the song thinking specifically of Orange County. :unsure:

 

You really seem to think about that song a lot. And 'Baby its Cold Outside' when walking your dog in his dog sweater on absolutely frigid 62-degree day!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's just that May and usually the first half of June are so uncharacteristic of the climate the rest of the year here in "sunny" Southern California.

 

At least in winter storms move by, rather than having atmospheric blocking patterns that last for a week or more.

The vast majority of CA is sunny right now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Average high for KCQT May 1-8 is now 69.75 ranking in the 20th coldest May if the month were to end today. Monday, with the low overhead, was actually a nice day here with lots of sunshine and absolutely no haze making the sky a deep blue like it normally is in the mountains. Hoping the upcoming low can disrupt the marine layer again.

 

Good news about next week it is might be nice for about 2 days before another anomalous trough approaches, but this one affects the whole West Coast, which will hopefully break down the BLEEPing Rex Block and allow things to be more progressive.

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Think of a cup of water with some ice cubes in it on a 100 degree day vs the same cup of water on a 60 degree day. The ice would melt faster in the first case causing the first cup of water to be cooler than the second one, at least temporarily. So global warming causing localized cooling in some areas especially near the ocean, at least temporarily, makes a lot of sense.

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After about 1/3 of May in the history books, here's where Downtown L.A. ranks for coldest average high. #19.

 

Rank,Year,AvgHigh
1,1921,65.13
2,1917,65.77
3,1914,67.26
4,1909,67.97
5,1919,68.16
6,1946,68.35
7,1933,68.58
8,1903,68.61
9,1906,68.74
10,1901,68.84
11,1899,68.94
12,1918,69.13
13,1908,69.13
14,1977,69.16
15,1905,69.19
16,1913,69.23
17,1898,69.26
18,1935,69.29
19,2019,69.30 (May 1-10)
20,1891,69.39
21,1915,69.81
22,1911,69.87
23,1894,70.00
24,1916,70.06
25,1950,70.10
26,1975,70.32
27,1920,70.35
28,1999,70.39
29,1964,70.39
30,1982,70.42
31,1980,70.42
32,1930,70.42
33,1907,70.48
34,1925,70.52
35,1904,70.58
36,1897,70.81
37,1963,70.90
38,1902,70.90
39,1944,70.94
40,1995,71.00
41,1945,71.00
42,1955,71.03
43,1971,71.06
44,1961,71.06
45,1962,71.10
46,1998,71.23
47,1937,71.23
48,1928,71.39
49,2015,71.45
50,1932,71.48
51,1966,71.58
52,1938,71.58
53,2016,71.61
54,1912,71.61
55,1939,71.74
56,1922,71.84
57,1957,71.87
58,2018,71.97
59,1965,71.97
60,1878,71.97
61,1954,72.03
62,1994,72.10
63,1892,72.13
64,1976,72.16
65,1942,72.16
66,1991,72.23
67,1890,72.29
68,1910,72.43
69,2002,72.48
70,1974,72.48
71,1947,72.48
72,1884,72.65
73,1956,72.71
74,1924,72.71
75,1888,72.77
76,1959,72.81
77,1951,72.90
78,2003,73.03
79,1893,73.03
80,1927,73.10
81,2012,73.19
82,1968,73.29
83,1889,73.32
84,1953,73.55
85,2010,73.58
86,2007,73.58
87,1949,73.61
88,2011,73.65
89,1926,73.68
90,1979,73.71
91,1929,73.71
92,1923,73.77
93,1895,73.87
94,1879,73.87
95,1936,73.94
96,1880,73.97
97,1989,74.00
98,1985,74.10
99,1973,74.13
100,1948,74.23
101,2006,74.26
102,2008,74.29
103,1969,74.29
104,1900,74.35
105,1896,74.48
106,1943,74.81
107,1990,75.00
108,1881,75.13
109,1940,75.29
110,2017,75.35
111,2009,75.35
112,1931,75.42
113,2001,75.52
114,1883,75.74
115,1992,75.84
116,1981,75.84
117,2005,75.90
118,1882,76.00
119,2000,76.19
120,1970,76.26
121,1988,76.42
122,1885,76.45
123,2013,76.48
124,1972,76.48
125,1967,76.48
126,1934,76.58
127,1952,76.77
128,1987,76.87
129,1993,77.00
130,1996,77.13
131,1960,77.13
132,1986,77.19
133,1958,77.39
134,1983,77.61
135,1887,77.74
136,1941,77.97
137,1886,78.58
138,1978,78.87
139,2004,79.00
140,2014,80.03
141,1997,81.45
142,1984,82.23

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