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2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

2019 california weather climate
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#51
Eujunga

Posted 24 January 2019 - 10:10 AM

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Time will tell! The STJ has been pretty beefy this winter. Wouldn’t surprise me to see it make its presence known again at some point.

 

Of course I hope you're right, but I admit I'd rather expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised than expect great things and be repeatedly disappointed (like many of our cohorts on the PNW forum).  For even the most cockeyed optimist, the overall trend down here just hasn't been very encouraging in recent years.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#52
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 24 January 2019 - 02:15 PM

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We're actually above average for rainfall since October 1 in most of Southern California.
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#53
Reg1992

Posted 24 January 2019 - 05:20 PM

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We're actually above average for rainfall since October 1 in most of Southern California.

 

Agreed. Every station around me (including my own) has already exceeded their entire season totals for the lackluster 2017-18 water year, and it's only January.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#54
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 25 January 2019 - 08:11 AM

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Sunrise has finally returned to the time it was on the Winter Solstice, but sunset is 28 minutes later.

#55
Reg1992

Posted 25 January 2019 - 09:37 AM

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Still making these "floating bar" daily max/min temperature and precipitation graphs for my weather station data. 2018-19 so far:

 

edbz8i0.png


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#56
Reg1992

Posted 26 January 2019 - 03:24 PM

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Finally a chance of rain next weekend?

 

tROaiD6.png


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#57
Thunder98

Posted 28 January 2019 - 07:06 AM

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Feb is looking more and more wet now. :)

Attached File  SantaMariaWUforecast50.PNG   67.01KB   0 downloads

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.gif


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#58
Eujunga

Posted 28 January 2019 - 04:01 PM

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Models looking pretty wet for the weekend.  If they verify, I'll be happy to eat crow using the fork I prematurely stuck in winter.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#59
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:57 PM

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Still making these "floating bar" daily max/min temperature and precipitation graphs for my weather station data. 2018-19 so far:

 

edbz8i0.png

 

Those graphs look similar to the ones from ClimateStations.com. I always enjoy looking at these kinds of graphs for precipitation to get an idea of how wet the winter season was and how the rain was distributed throughout the season.



#60
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 28 January 2019 - 09:58 PM

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Rain chances are certainly looking up for Socal this weekend, as reflected in the local NWS AFDs.



#61
Reg1992

Posted 29 January 2019 - 02:20 AM

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Those graphs look similar to the ones from ClimateStations.com. I always enjoy looking at these kinds of graphs for precipitation to get an idea of how wet the winter season was and how the rain was distributed throughout the season.

 

Good eye - that's where my graphs are inspired from. I actually talked to the site's owner, Charles Fisk, a few times over the years regarding the software he uses (which is custom-made) as well as the nature of the data he has found over the years. It's very interesting indeed.


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#62
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 30 January 2019 - 08:25 AM

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Made my dog in Paint 3D. The evenings are getting light enough to walk her again after work.

 

Attached File  Lexi3d.png   211.2KB   0 downloads

 

Looks like a lot of rain is forecast over the next 7 days. It should get some places over 10 inches for the season.

 

 


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#63
Omegaraptor

Posted 30 January 2019 - 07:28 PM

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Hey, can you guys please give us our precipitation back?

Sincerely, an Oregonian

But no really, I’m glad you guys are getting rain. Tahoe is getting dumped on and even SoCal is getting a downpour on Saturday. Besides, we’re getting a cold snap, although not much snow will fall.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#64
Reg1992

Posted 31 January 2019 - 12:46 AM

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Looking forward to Saturday's storm. Could deliver up to 2" here, although that's probably being very optimistic.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#65
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2019 - 09:55 AM

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Front moving in right now with moderate rain and a couple of peals of thunder so far.  Nice little appetizer for the main course this weekend, which continues to look impressive on the models.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#66
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2019 - 01:13 PM

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Fun to see "TSTM" next to so many station names on the NWS LA hourly roundup.  That doesn't happen often -- T-storms are rare around here to begin with, and when they do happen they're typically pretty localized.

 

Looks like I'll break an inch here before the rain stops, which should be soon if the radar is any indication.

 

20190131noon.jpg


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#67
Reg1992

Posted 31 January 2019 - 03:01 PM

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Coming down pretty good over the last two hours. 0.35" here and rising.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#68
Thunder98

Posted 31 January 2019 - 03:01 PM

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Final storm total for Orcutt is 1.09” is a massive overperformer with a some thunder and lightning early this morning. The overall monthly total for January is at 5.01”. Wettest Month since February 2017. Amazing

 

908499bc03eab3a0ec17bbe6d465d1ff9100bf20

 



#69
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:46 PM

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Got some decent rainfall amounts from this storm. Fullerton had over an inch and San Diego is still finishing up.
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#70
Reg1992

Posted 31 January 2019 - 04:59 PM

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0.60" here and still raining, the sun just started poking through over the Santa Ana Mountains that we can see from here. Had some nice thunder earlier.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#71
Thunder98

Posted 31 January 2019 - 06:24 PM

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Season to date rain totals

MO | Total | Avg | % of average 
Oct: 0.44" | 0.58" | 76%
Nov: 1.83" | 1.34" | 137%
Dec: 1.09" | 2.13" | 51%
Jan: 5.01" | 2.70" | 180%

Total so far: 8.37" | Annual avg 13.57" | 62% of the yearly avg so far. Getting closer to reaching the annual avg. Only 5.2" to go! :)


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#72
Eujunga

Posted 31 January 2019 - 11:00 PM

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Storm total here 1.28", bringing the total for January to 7.10" -- wettest January since 2008, and wettest month since December 2010.  Season total thus far 12.59".

 

NWS seems to be getting rather alarmed regarding the next storm, especially the potential for wind damage.  The surface low does look stronger with each model run.  Batten down those hatches!


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#73
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2019 - 02:55 AM

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I received 0.53" today, for a total of 6.15" for January 2019 here in Orange. This was on the lower end of the predicted range, as 0.5" to 1" was forecast for this area with the storm, but still within range and NOT a bust!

 

There was some lightning and thunder in the area early this afternoon, but I think the thunderstorm activity was more vigorous in western Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara Counties.



#74
Thunder98

Posted 01 February 2019 - 06:30 AM

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Storm total here 1.28", bringing the total for January to 7.10" -- wettest January since 2008, and wettest month since December 2010.  Season total thus far 12.59".
 
NWS seems to be getting rather alarmed regarding the next storm, especially the potential for wind damage.  The surface low does look stronger with each model run.  Batten down those hatches!


January’s storm total of 5.01” is the wettest month since February 2017. Not that long ago.
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#75
Eujunga

Posted 01 February 2019 - 08:15 AM

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January’s storm total of 5.01” is the wettest month since February 2017. Not that long ago.

 

Interesting.  I only had 5.31" in February 2017. January 2017 was actually wetter at 6.63".


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#76
Thunder98

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:16 AM

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Interesting.  I only had 5.31" in February 2017. January 2017 was actually wetter at 6.63".

 

In Jan 2017, Orcutt received 7.00" exact and in Feb 2017 had 6.69". Very wet months indeed



#77
K%%

Posted 01 February 2019 - 09:22 AM

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You guys are basically getting the ideal storm- strong winds, heavy rain, thunder and lightning, heavy snow, etc.

I am so jealous, enjoy it!
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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#78
Reg1992

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:18 PM

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0.64" from yesterday's storm. Thought I heard some thunder outside just now.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#79
Jginmartini

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:07 PM

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Thanks AccuWeather, my chance for snow outways the chance of no snow. Oh happy days

Attached Files


Layman’s terms please 😁

#80
Jginmartini

Posted 01 February 2019 - 07:09 PM

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Ooppps went to far south ...sorry guys...enjoy your storm though!!!
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Layman’s terms please 😁

#81
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 February 2019 - 10:23 PM

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Already got some very light rain. Most of the day was nice today.

#82
Reg1992

Posted 02 February 2019 - 06:34 AM

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Already 0.05" since midnight. Mr Marine Layer (I remember you as Jet Developer?) you're in Orange County right?



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#83
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 February 2019 - 08:21 AM

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Already 0.05" since midnight. Mr Marine Layer (I remember you as Jet Developer?) you're in Orange County right?

 

Yes, I'm in Lake Forest, which used to be El Toro.


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#84
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 February 2019 - 09:50 AM

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Mostly light rain through last night with the rain letting up this morning for long enough to walk my dog around the block. Looks like the brunt of the storm moves through this afternoon.

#85
Reg1992

Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:00 AM

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Mostly light rain through last night with the rain letting up this morning for long enough to walk my dog around the block. Looks like the brunt of the storm moves through this afternoon.

Same here. 0.08" since midnight. Rain getting a bit heavier now



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#86
Eujunga

Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:42 AM

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Took a while to ramp up, but it's certainly raining like crazy now with sustained rates of 1.00" to 1.25" per hour.  Just passed 2" total on the day.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#87
Eujunga

Posted 02 February 2019 - 12:32 PM

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Beautiful pinwheel cloud formation on visible satellite image of today's storm:

 

20190202vis.jpg


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#88
Eujunga

Posted 02 February 2019 - 01:02 PM

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Just surpassed 3" on the day.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#89
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 February 2019 - 01:49 PM

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We are really getting dumped on right now. El Nino is delivering, unlike last time.


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#90
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 February 2019 - 03:26 PM

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Starting to brighten up in the western sky, but the rain is still coming down.

#91
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 February 2019 - 04:44 PM

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Rain has stopped for now. It was quite a storm, but not as big as the one we had in early December.


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#92
Thunder98

Posted 02 February 2019 - 07:29 PM

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Storm total of 0.81". Which is actually less than the storm on Wednesday. 

 

 

We are really getting dumped on right now. El Nino is delivering, unlike last time.

Actually we are Not in an El Nino.



#93
Thunder98

Posted 02 February 2019 - 07:31 PM

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A forecast high of only 50F with showers on Tuesday? Brrrr. And maybe a mid February deluge coming? Epic

 

And not a single day has the temperature above 60F in the 14 day forecast.

 
 
5abe3d0f258d654b58d07b532440bd196bdbe364
 
 

 



#94
TT-SEA

Posted 02 February 2019 - 07:59 PM

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A forecast high of only 50F with showers on Tuesday? Brrrr. And maybe a mid February deluge coming? Epic

 

And not a single day has the temperature above 60F in the 14 day forecast.

 
 
 
5abe3d0f258d654b58d07b532440bd196bdbe364
 
 

 

 

 

That would not be an unusual forecast for Seattle in February.   You have our weather and we have Juneau's weather.   :)


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#95
Reg1992

Posted 02 February 2019 - 09:38 PM

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Storm total of 0.81". Which is actually less than the storm on Wednesday. 

 

 

Actually we are Not in an El Nino.

We're on the cusp of a weak El Nino threshold though. http://origin.cpc.nc...tuff/ONI_v5.php

 

I have 1.07" for the day, not bad. Showers are on and off at the moment.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#96
Reg1992

Posted 02 February 2019 - 09:42 PM

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We are really getting dumped on right now. El Nino is delivering, unlike last time.

Every El Nino starting with 2006-07 has pretty much failed us. The atmosphere isn't syncing up with ocean events for some reason. 2009-10 was somewhat decent, but all the others were duds. We ironically got more out of the 2010-11 La Nina.


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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 


#97
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 02 February 2019 - 10:26 PM

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It started raining here in Orange last night around 11 pm, and continued mostly light throughout the night and this morning. It then picked up around noon or so and was moderate to heavy at times, before ending around 3:30 pm. There have been a few showers since then, but not too much, since the center of the low is moving onshore north of here.



#98
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 02 February 2019 - 10:30 PM

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Every El Nino starting with 2006-07 has pretty much failed us. The atmosphere isn't syncing up with ocean events for some reason. 2009-10 was somewhat decent, but all the others were duds. We ironically got more out of the 2010-11 La Nina.

 

2006-07 was a real dud in Socal, being the driest winter on record for Los Angeles. It was not a warm year like some of these recent drought years have been, and there was quite the cold snap in mid-January of that season that killed a fair number of ornamental plants in the Inland Empire that are not accustomed to the colder temperatures that hit the region at that time.

 

2015-16 was another dud of a winter, despite one of the stronger El Ninos on record, despite a very interesting summer season preceding it. However, once again the 2016-17 weak La Nina turned out to be much wetter than 2015-16.


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#99
Eujunga

Posted 03 February 2019 - 03:08 PM

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Don't know how much of it will verify, but the 18z GFS operational is amazing.  Below-normal heights and 850mb temps for the entire run.  Haven't seen a model run like that since I started tracking them in about 2012.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#100
Reg1992

Posted 03 February 2019 - 06:01 PM

Reg1992

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2006-07 was a real dud in Socal, being the driest winter on record for Los Angeles. It was not a warm year like some of these recent drought years have been, and there was quite the cold snap in mid-January of that season that killed a fair number of ornamental plants in the Inland Empire that are not accustomed to the colder temperatures that hit the region at that time.

 

2015-16 was another dud of a winter, despite one of the stronger El Ninos on record, despite a very interesting summer season preceding it. However, once again the 2016-17 weak La Nina turned out to be much wetter than 2015-16.

 

I remember the January 2007 cold snap. Not far from me, the town of Menifee got down to 20F one morning, and the elevation there is only around 1400 feet above sea level.

 

They made it seem like we would get a lot more rain than we actually did today. There has hardly been any showers at all today. Only 0.06" since midnight when forecasts called for up to 1/3 of an inch.



My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

 

2019-2020 Season Total: 0.06" (as of 10/15/19)

 

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

 

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 






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