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2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread


Thunder98

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Yet another anomalously strong low pressure moving in which will probably deepen the marine layer back up to 4000 ft by Wednesday here or possibly even tomorrow. It was an EXTREMELY gloomy start to the day, but looks like the sun should come out by about noon from the satellite animation.

 

I am forecasting fog again for Julian by midweek. This time I consider myself smarter than the professional forecasters.

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Drizzling yet again this morning as the never ending winter will never end. Might need to wait until 2020 for summer to arrive here or later than that.

 

Yes, the forecast is warmer for the weekend and earlier next week, but new model runs want to keep the troughs coming. Downtown L.A. has never averaged below 75.6 for July, but this year that could all be broken.

 

Anyone who denies climate change with the weather this year is crazy.

 

So don't be surprised if we get 50.00" of rain this winter, including July and August, which will have 0.75" from drizzle. Then one or two offshore flow events in September and the coast will be higher than it has been this year. Then expect the real rain to start in mid October and last through the end of June. After that another cool summer followed by a 2.5" water year from 2020-21 where half the state burns down.

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Drizzling yet again this morning as the never ending winter will never end. Might need to wait until 2020 for summer to arrive here or later than that.

 

Yes, the forecast is warmer for the weekend and earlier next week, but new model runs want to keep the troughs coming. Downtown L.A. has never averaged below 75.6 for July, but this year that could all be broken.

 

Anyone who denies climate change with the weather this year is crazy.

 

So don't be surprised if we get 50.00" of rain this winter, including July and August, which will have 0.75" from drizzle. Then one or two offshore flow events in September and the coast will be higher than it has been this year. Then expect the real rain to start in mid October and last through the end of June. After that another cool summer followed by a 2.5" water year from 2020-21 where half the state burns down.

 

 

I am pretty sure what is happening this year is more related to the very low solar period rather than climate change.   

 

Lots of high latitude blocking and patterns are getting stuck for long periods of time.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Palm Springs was below 100 today. Oops!

 

I will be going there from this Saturday to next and hope to bring back some of the heat after I return.

 

I know many PNW people who would prefer 60s and rain all summer long. One of those is the #2 poster on Weather Forums. I am definitely not one of them. These winter lovers know who they are though.

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I am pretty sure what is happening this year is more related to the very low solar period rather than climate change.   

 

Lots of high latitude blocking and patterns are getting stuck for long periods of time.   

 

This would seem to suggest otherwise.

 

https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-blocking-increase

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So according to that article we can expect more and more Really Resilient Ridges and Troughs as the climate changes. California is lucky though. Most of the mid-country will get increasing severe weather events from as early as the middle of February to as late as the end of June as they are stuck between the hot ridges and cold troughs that refuse to budge for weeks.

As for California some years will be extremely dry and others will be extremely wet with cold storms as late as the end of May or even the middle of June.

All of this could just be the climate change alarmists just trying to make their case again, but CA Weather Blog has been discussing the whiplash effect between extremely dry and wet years.

If the grand solar minimum is partially responsible, they are expecting this to last a couple of years, giving even more fuel for the climate change alarmists.

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Marine layer not as deep this morning despite the upper low being closer to area than it was during the peak of our gloom-fest on Tuesday.

 

Had a dream that I was at work and it was pouring rain outside and asked my coworker if summer would ever arrive this year. Hope that's not an omen of something.

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NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard said in the Forecast Discussion Wednesday morning that clearing should be better as it's hard to imagine it be any worse. They also said 3 straight days of drizzle is unusual even for June. With July starting next week, we would expect the weather to start becoming more summer-like. Let's hope it stays that way.

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