January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Blizzard777]

There will be a lot of people mowing grass by the end of January/first of February...guess I better get busy with repairing/prepping my mower.

Just had all my grass removed!

 

42* back home

 

76* Oahu and windy...according to weatherman we may get roughed up and deluged

Hoping for Thunderstorm later on

[Omegaraptor]

Doing a rainfall update at the end of a dry period here per Jared's instructions.

 

Total rain overnight here was .05 and total rain for the last week has been .05

 

But the rainy season has been almost perfectly normal here in terms of total precipitation and days with precipitation.

 

Using the Cedar Lake station (2 miles east of here):

 

October 9.91 (+0.29)

November 13.70 (-0.24)

December 15.80 (+1.75)

First half of January 5.69 (-1.01)

 

Total rain since October 1st is now 45.10 inches which is +0.79 above normal.

 

But here is the most important statistic to me personally... number of dry days.

 

October - 14 (normal is 15)

November - 10 (normal is 11)

December - 8 (normal is 10)

First half of January - 8 (normal is 5)

 

A total of 40 dry days this rainy season so far... and the normal is 41 dry days to this point.

 

No complaints from me at all in terms of rain this year. This rainy season has been the definition of climo in my area. And the dry periods have been evenly spread out each month.

 

So much better than some of the persistently wet winters we have had recently. I much prefer climo here!

 

I define rainy season as Nov-March.

 

For Hillsboro:

 

17 dry days in Nov (0.00 or trace)

 

12 dry days in Dec

 

8 dry days in Jan so far

 

So that’s 37 dry days this rainy season - not including October. A lot of additional days were under 1mm.

 

There were 18 dry days in October, just checked.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 51. Time to get used to a bunch of highs in the 50s again

[MossMan]

12z GFS ensembles looked a bit better than the 6z in the extended.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MossMan]

Most spread I have seen all winter. Pattern changes are hard.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 51. Time to get used to a bunch of highs in the 50s again

 

Its been in the 50s up here for most of the last week.   Actually upper 50s on a few days.    Quite pleasant.  

[GHweatherChris]

Most spread I have seen all winter. Pattern changes are hard.

That's what he said!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Its been in the 50s up here for most of the last week.   Actually upper 50s on a few days.    Quite pleasant.  

 

Inversions are nice. Except with ZR.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Breezy

[GHweatherChris]

Something weather related will occur in early February!

[jakeinthevalley]

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN 37.63N 119.02W

01/17/2019 M164 MPH MONO CA MESONET

 

SUSTAINED WINDS 132 MPH GUSTING TO 164 MPH

MEASURED BY THE WIND SENSOR ON MAMMOTH

MOUNTAIN.

[MossMan]

Something weather related will occur in early February!

Fake news!

[Omegaraptor]

The thing is, if the temperature does dip, will it snow or be sunny? 1/22 onward is looking sunny.

 

5000th post here!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The thing is, if the temperature does dip, will it snow or be sunny? 1/22 onward is looking sunny.

Sunny until the end of January and hopefully snow in February.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Breezy

Just walked to my SUV here in Hillsboro for lunch and it was windy with some rain.

[Eastvanisle]

I watch this, just for sanity. It's only 90 mins NW of me...

https://www.mountwashington.ca/live-cam.html

[ShawniganLake]

12z EPS is not even close anymore, thru day 15. Ridge axis is pretty much parked along the west coast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, atrocious 12z runs this morning. Barf city. If models look like this in 5-6 days, then you push out any goodies even further into February probably, but this is a complex pattern with the PV lobes/vortices shifting around rather wildly at times. We know how many times models have suddenly shifted within Day 7-8 of an event. I would think with the atmosphere state behaving as an ENSO-Neutral might allow for it. I wouldn't expect it, but I know we'll all be watching the models for it.

 

18z GFS in 21 minutes!

[Canadian guy]

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOiW_xY-kc

[MossMan]

Tim still alive?

[MossMan]

https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/2019/jan/16/snowpack-healthy-for-warm-year/

[TT-SEA]

Tim still alive?

 

I posted a seasonal rainfall update this morning.    

 

But I do feel barely alive this week... I got sick on Monday and can't get over it.   I have been either shivering uncontrollably under a pile of blankets or sweating with a fan blowing on me... back and forth.     No temperature regulation as fever comes and goes.    Miserable.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/2019/jan/16/snowpack-healthy-for-warm-year/

Not surprising at all that the snowpack around here would be doing ok on January 17th.  Last Nino a few years ago snowpack was above normal at this time of year.  In town we had a snowy December and early January.   It is what happens after mid January that is the worry.  Historically, things really dry up from this point on during El Nino.

 

Here in town we have a base of 13".  Have had one really good snow last week (10+ inches in two days), and then about 4 inches overnight and this morning.  Might be the last for awhile.

[Deweydog]

I posted a seasonal rainfall update this morning.

 

But I do feel barely alive this week... I got sick on Monday and can't get over it. I have been either shivering uncontrollably under a pile of blankets or sweating with a fan blowing on me... back and forth. No temperature regulation as fever comes and goes. Miserable.

Classic vitamin D overdose symptoms.

[TT-SEA]

Classic vitamin D overdose symptoms.

No... but maybe symptoms of the flu.

[Deweydog]

No... but maybe symptoms of the flu.

My son had the real deal right after Xmas. Between that and my surgery this place was a full on convelescent home for a while.

[Phil]

Watch the eastward adjustment of the Siberian vortex with time on the EPS. There’s your EAMT conduit. Opens up the Pacific a bit and you quickly get a +PNA.

 

[MossMan]

Watch the eastward adjustment of the Siberian vortex with time on the EPS. There’s your EAMT conduit. Opens up the Pacific a bit and you quickly get a +PNA.

 

Forks!

[Phil]

This could easily be a state-dependent overcorrection, as there is plenty of historical precedent for guidance to screw up over Eurasia.

 

However, if it continues this way, it will probably end up resembling February 2015, with extreme cold into the eastern half of North America, but not as much cold into the West.

 

No doubt there will be cold coming for North America, as the wavebreaking upstream and tropical forcing/SSW influence are all aligning that way, but its exact location is still quite uncertain (to state the obvious).

[Jesse]

Hope to see a really detailed breakdown of exactly why we are getting screwed soon. Complete with pictures of the snow back east to really drive it home.

[Jesse]

This could easily be a state-dependent overcorrection, as there is plenty of historical precedent for guidance to screw up over Eurasia.

 

However, if it continues this way, it will probably end up resembling February 2015, with extreme cold into the eastern half of North America, but not as much cold into the West.

 

No doubt there will be cold coming for North America, as the wavebreaking upstream and tropical forcing/SSW influence are all aligning that way, but its exact location is still quite uncertain (to state the obvious).

Crazy. Really didn’t see this coming considering 2014-15 was a niño and we are currently in a strong La Niña.

[Phil]

Hope to see a really detailed breakdown of exactly why we are getting screwed soon. Complete with pictures of the snow back east to really drive it home.

There’s really a ~ 50/50 chance the former holds true. It’s not nearly as bleak as the models made it look today.

 

As for the latter, I won’t do that to you guys. Not now.

[Esquimalt]

The 18Z GFS has a much more robust ridge at day 9. 

[Esquimalt]

18Z gets so close to a blast!  Nice amplification , definitely a good run.  

[Gradient Keeper]

18z sucks. Block just keeps reorganizing over us repeatedly. Onto 00z!

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 30 minutes

[Esquimalt]

18z sucks. Block just keeps reorganizing over us repeatedly. Onto 00z!

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 30 minutes

The end gets there though.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

If the GFS only went out to 288 hours, we would never be teased by the day 15 and 16 arctic blasts. And nobody would get their hopes up too high.  

[MossMan]

I posted a seasonal rainfall update this morning.

 

But I do feel barely alive this week... I got sick on Monday and can't get over it. I have been either shivering uncontrollably under a pile of blankets or sweating with a fan blowing on me... back and forth. No temperature regulation as fever comes and goes. Miserable.

That’s right I forgot about that post! Hope you get better soon! I have just been waiting for the flu to strike my house...probably more likely than an arctic blast...