January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have we extrapolated or even thought cold and snow yet?

 

I think the problem was we ended up thinking about warm midwestern springs. 

[MossMan]

Ensembles are okayish.

[MossMan]

Breezy and 43 currently.

[Dave]

Breezy and 43 currently.

LMAO. Is your avatar a fork into steamy pile of poo? Heh.

[Omegaraptor]

Beautiful rainstorm today. Loved it.

[MossMan]

[Blizzard777]

If possible I’d go with meteobridge nano instead of WeatherLink. You can do so much more with the former including rapid-firing 5-second updates to wunderground.

5-second updates would make me happy so perhaps I’ll look into meteobridge.

When I upgraded my system to wireless everyone pointed me towards the weatherlink. I liked everything about it except the update capabilities to wundergound. That was a huge disappointment!! For some reason I also thought they were ending the rapid fire function on wunderground (this was a year ago).

[Jesse]

Over an inch of rain here today. Seemed like a rare overachiever.

[ShawniganLake]

The FV3 was kind of interesting tonight. FWIW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

.66" here today

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.06" at last checked today. Over 3" on the month now...Almost 50% of normal for month to date now. 

[ShawniganLake]

A rare day this winter, when it’s wetter as you go south. Only ~1/2” here today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3 is very interesting. February 2014 all over again. 

 

Also colder late next week out in Oklahoma which would be nice. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FV3 is very interesting. February 2014 all over again. 

 

Also colder late next week out in Oklahoma which would be nice. 

 

Would be an insane gradient.  60+ in EUG and low 20s in SEA

[TT-SEA]

A rare day this winter, when it’s wetter as you go south. Only ~1/2” here today.

Did not even start to rain here until 5 p.m. today. Only .40 total so far.

 

00Z ECMWF also shows Sunday being totally dry for southern BC and most of western WA with some rain from Portland southward.

[umadbro]

I'm going to end today with 1.40".

 

Newberg

 

130' in elevation, yada yada

[Gradient Keeper]

This sums it up

 

Every Winter Before 2018-2019

 

 

Winter 2018-2019 version

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 3 minutes!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This sums it up

 

Every Winter Before 2018-2019

nowham.jpg

 

 

Winter 2018-2019 version

nowham 3 Bad Winter.jpg

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 3 minutes!

 

We need Michael Larson!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like another 4-5 days until we have an idea how this plays out. and then....... AND THEN..... then it's July. Nah. I still think there's a chance things improve. Not expecting it.

 

12z GFS in 7 hours 48 minutes

[GHweatherChris]

Just hit 2 inches of rain for today, not surprised since I predicted it a couple months ago!!

[AbbyJr]

The FV3 was kind of interesting tonight. FWIW.

 

Too bad its still in beta testing. Ugh. If only this was the Euro showing that. But hey, with the 0-2% chance it verifies, I hope it does. 

[umadbro]

Just hit 2 inches of rain for today, not surprised since I predicted it a couple months ago!!

No, you're in a drought! Let's argue about it in another thread.

[umadbro]

That 1.40" in a valley location is pretty dry though.

[ShawniganLake]

Too bad its still in beta testing. Ugh. If only this was the Euro showing that. But hey, with the 0-2% chance it verifies, I hope it does.

The euro operational is usually pretty much garbage out in the long range too, though it doesn’t even go past hr240 like the gfs.

[ShawniganLake]

[Gradient Keeper]

519EDF7B-26DD-4BE5-87F6-7E804F6D1F02.png8436A750-7FB6-45F7-A062-E0D4FE0CA44F.pngA4008B8C-C65B-470F-B825-9929B4F0B034.png

Kona low, sorta? Block probably just undercut.... if so. WINTER is over. DONE.

 

6z GFS in 4 minutes!  Holy I am almost excited!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS = N O P E !!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV 3 is still mildly interesting.

[Omegaraptor]

 

1.11” of rain fell in Portland yesterday, beating the previous record of 1.06” set in 2017.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.17" yesterday.

 

0.62" since midnight.

[MossMan]

Bouncity bounce bouncity bounce bouncity bounce off the 0 line we go!

 

Looks like our chance for winter happened during the first half of November.

 

2018/19 El Niño = NO SNOW FOR YOU!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS looks a lot like the pattern we've had all winter. 

[Jesse]

One thing I like about the 12z is that the ridge doesn’t last very long. We go back into a nice and wet pattern pretty quickly.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Long range GFS looks a lot like the pattern we've had all winter. 

 

As far as low elevations go, this is the worst since 14-15 easily.

[Jesse]

As far as low elevations go, this is the worst since 14-15 easily.

1914-15 right?

[TT-SEA]

I would love to follow a 2015 script... this January seems similar. Also featured a weak Nino developing into a stronger Nino during the year.

 

This was 2/15/2015 in North Bend... just 3 weeks from now.

 

 

 

And then 2/21/15:

 

 

 

And 2/28/15:

 

 

[Jesse]

Latest trend on the ensembles seems to be keeping the upcoming ridge generally less amplified and getting us into a wetter pattern again in the long range.

 

[El_Nina]

Latest trend on the ensembles seems to be keeping the upcoming ridge generally less amplified and getting us into a wetter pattern again in the long range.

 

B8046ADD-2B40-4693-AB4D-CEAB74272883.png

Anything but a stupid dry inversion.

[Jesse]

[Farmboy]

You guys only have 2 or 3 months of rain to get through until the first 70 degree day!