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New Year's Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:06 PM

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Are we going to close out the year with a winter storm???  If you were looking at the models earlier in the week you would have been saying to yourself, "what storm"? However, those same models are now indicating a cut-off southern stream wave trying to phase with the northern stream somewhere across the northern half of our sub forum.  This system has been on my calendar for weeks now and I'm glad to see it showing up on the models.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 



#2
Madtown

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:10 PM

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how far north can this one trend?

#3
hlcater

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:11 PM

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Bust
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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#4
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:22 PM

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Bust

No storm?



#5
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:23 PM

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Icon 84

https://www.tropical...018122800&fh=84

Looks weaker than 18z

#6
hlcater

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:24 PM

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No storm?


I felt I should make sure all the bases are covered.
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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#7
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:24 PM

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Icon 84

https://www.tropical...018122800&fh=84

Looks weaker than 18z

Slowing down each of the last 4 runs...I think a better phase is coming after HR 84...


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#8
Madtown

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:26 PM

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With the better phase is there anything stopping this from going farther north?

#9
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:27 PM

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until the OP euro shows it, not buying in.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#10
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:27 PM

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WI/IA crush job at 93 on the Icon

https://www.tropical...018122800&fh=87

#11
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:30 PM

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With the better phase is there anything stopping this from going farther north?

Depends how fast the northern stream bleeds south and phases with the southern energy.  I think S/C Wisco is in a good spot for this one.



#12
Tom

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:31 PM

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until the OP euro shows it, not buying in.

Funny thing is, the Ukie and ICON were the first to see this storm yesterday.  I would think the Euro has it on tonight's run.



#13
jcwxguy

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:33 PM

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Hope it phases farther west so we can cash in here in eastern Nebraska
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#14
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Gfs seems slower and farther west at 84

#15
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:55 PM

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NO phase on GFS. Sees the potential but not yet.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#16
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:57 PM

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Still 3-6 inches of snow in eastern WI with it

#17
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 07:59 PM

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GFS

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#18
hlcater

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:00 PM

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What’s interesting is how the GFS doesn’t phase but it’s still north. Not a particularly good sign for snow down here.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#19
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:03 PM

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No phase on the GEM either but took a huge step toward it (big nw shift from 12z)

#20
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:03 PM

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My gut tells me that areas that just saw appreciable snowfall from this past storm- but then had it mostly melt away from rain and temps in the mid to upper 30's will do the best with this potential system. Expect more rain here in C.IA changing to CAA snows under 1" --which would more than double DEC's totals at KDSM,


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#21
jaster220

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:29 PM

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yawn


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:39 PM

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Ukie has a 998 L just east of Chicago at 96

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=096

Icon at 96

https://www.tropical...018122800&fh=96

Icon/Ukie nearly identical with the surface low

#23
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:42 PM

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Yeah- and it's also got a L around the NE/SD border at hr 72-- if it's the same low. If it is- it's another Northern Special.


 


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#24
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 December 2018 - 08:58 PM

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d**n if this one misses to our east barely god help us eastern NEB folk LOL.


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#25
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:04 PM

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Euro looks really interesting at hr 72...

#26
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:10 PM

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And Euro goes crazy..

992 L just east of Chicago at 96

http://www.pivotalwe...conus&dpdt=&mc=

#27
bainbridgekid

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:12 PM

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Euro looks really interesting at hr 72...

992mb low just East of Chicago at hour 96. Wow.

 

Tough to tell from limited maps, but this would be a pretty significant snowstorm for Southern Wisconsin, Eastern Iowa, and likely portions of Northern Illinois as well.

 

I'm visiting family in Evanston, IL right now, so I'd love it if the Euro is on to something here.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

 

Pretty amazing to compare that to the much weaker system on the GFS:

 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png


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2018-19 snowfall:

 

Feb. 3rd-4th: 8"

Feb. 8th-9th: 6"

Feb. 10th: 3"

Feb. 11th-12th: 6"

Feb. 22nd: Trace

Feb. 24th: Trace

March 6th: 0.25"

March 7th: 1.5"

 

 

Total: 24.75"

 

 


#28
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:17 PM

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Have to wait for the precip maps to come out but pretty good runs tonight. NAM/ICON/UKIE/Euro all showing a major system

#29
james1976

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:19 PM

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My God something to track?! I remember this system showing up a while back...then gone for a while...and now it's back. Nice
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#30
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:25 PM

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Man that sim radar on the Euro is gorgeous

https://weather.us/m...1231-2100z.html
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#31
Money

Posted 27 December 2018 - 10:40 PM

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Looks like Euro has about 8-12 inches of snow in eastern WI about 3-5 in N IL
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#32
Grizzcoat

Posted 27 December 2018 - 11:00 PM

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$$ is spot on from the precip maps I saw. Will not post for now. E.NE and most of IA (minus the far E) left out once again. 


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#33
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 27 December 2018 - 11:05 PM

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It all depends on how fast the northern energy moves AKA the arctic blast. If it moves slower then expected.....expect this system to be more north and west.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#34
Tom

Posted 28 December 2018 - 04:22 AM

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00z EPS continues to show more and more members phasing both streams, the stronger members have bigger hits and farther NW and the weaker ones are father SE.  It's all going to depend on timing of both pieces phasing.  I'm pretty confident there will be a snowstorm and it looks like parts of WI, and even E IA, who have been neglected this year will see their first appreciable snowstorm.  #Buildthatsnowpack

 

 


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#35
Stacsh

Posted 28 December 2018 - 05:59 AM

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GRR buying a more NW solution which means slop to rain here in SMI.  Maybe some LES on the backside with the brief cold shot.  Good luck to Iowa and Wisconsin, NW Illinois?



#36
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 06:32 AM

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NAM is awful

Cold rain for everyone

#37
Clinton

Posted 28 December 2018 - 06:35 AM

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NAM is awful

Cold rain for everyone

No phasing.  Yuck!



#38
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 06:38 AM

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The low tracks from eastern NE and goes ENE to southern lake MI

#39
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 06:42 AM

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SMI can do better w this system, if the northern streamer flows in faster and brings in the cold air faster, otherwise, looks like a rainstorm .....agggaaaiinnnnn!! :rolleyes:



#40
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:22 AM

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Icon similar to 0z euro

Low gets down to 995 in W MI

Low tracks from MO just to the east of Chicago

https://www.tropical...018122812&fh=72

#41
james1976

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:31 AM

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Gonna suck if I get missed to the east after getting missed to the west all winter.

#42
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:48 AM

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Gfs/gem all east with no phase

Both are really close but the northern stream is too far northeast

#43
Iowawx

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:53 AM

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Whoever started this thread jumped the gun on this. This doesn’t look like anything major at all. Light rain if that.

#44
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:56 AM

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Whoever started this thread jumped the gun on this. This doesn’t look like anything major at all. Light rain if that.


I’m guessing you didn’t look at the euro last night or icon this morning

Phasing systems always give models problems because all the pieces have to come together just right
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#45
Iowawx

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:00 AM

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I’m guessing you didn’t look at the euro last night or icon this morning

Phasing systems always give models problems because all the pieces have to come together just right


Just looked at that. Those look better. Just hope Iowa doesn’t miss out on whatever this system ends up doing.

#46
bud2380

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:02 AM

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GFS says no phase. ICON is now phasing later than previous runs and misses most of Iowa with any appreciable precip.  We'll see what the Euro has to say, but these types of storms are tricky and rarely seem to materialize for eastern Iowa anyways.  


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#47
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:42 AM

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Yea the 12z (North) American suite is pretty terrible for the NYE system. Only an itty bitty bit of snow on the MW side but not really any cold sector precip at all. Seems these models come close to phasing, but just don’t. Like bud said, it seems phased systems never really work out over our area.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#48
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Ukie looks better..

#49
bud2380

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:12 AM

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Here's the 12z Ukie.  Can't see p-type or temps at this hour, so we can only hope/assume this is snow.  

 

Attached File  Capture.PNG   179.9KB   0 downloads


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#50
Hawkeye

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:24 AM

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There's no cold air ahead of this system, so even the models that spin it up are showing most of the snow holding off until after it passes my area.


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"