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New Year's Storm


Tom

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Are we going to close out the year with a winter storm???  If you were looking at the models earlier in the week you would have been saying to yourself, "what storm"? However, those same models are now indicating a cut-off southern stream wave trying to phase with the northern stream somewhere across the northern half of our sub forum.  This system has been on my calendar for weeks now and I'm glad to see it showing up on the models.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

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My gut tells me that areas that just saw appreciable snowfall from this past storm- but then had it mostly melt away from rain and temps in the mid to upper 30's will do the best with this potential system. Expect more rain here in C.IA changing to CAA snows under 1" --which would more than double DEC's totals at KDSM,

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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yawn

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro looks really interesting at hr 72...

992mb low just East of Chicago at hour 96. Wow.

 

Tough to tell from limited maps, but this would be a pretty significant snowstorm for Southern Wisconsin, Eastern Iowa, and likely portions of Northern Illinois as well.

 

I'm visiting family in Evanston, IL right now, so I'd love it if the Euro is on to something here.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

 

Pretty amazing to compare that to the much weaker system on the GFS:

 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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It all depends on how fast the northern energy moves AKA the arctic blast. If it moves slower then expected.....expect this system to be more north and west.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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00z EPS continues to show more and more members phasing both streams, the stronger members have bigger hits and farther NW and the weaker ones are father SE.  It's all going to depend on timing of both pieces phasing.  I'm pretty confident there will be a snowstorm and it looks like parts of WI, and even E IA, who have been neglected this year will see their first appreciable snowstorm.  #Buildthatsnowpack

 

 

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SMI can do better w this system, if the northern streamer flows in faster and brings in the cold air faster, otherwise, looks like a rainstorm .....agggaaaiinnnnn!! :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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