Tom Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Are we going to close out the year with a winter storm??? If you were looking at the models earlier in the week you would have been saying to yourself, "what storm"? However, those same models are now indicating a cut-off southern stream wave trying to phase with the northern stream somewhere across the northern half of our sub forum. This system has been on my calendar for weeks now and I'm glad to see it showing up on the models. Let's discuss... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 how far north can this one trend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Bust 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 BustNo storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Icon 84 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122800&fh=84 Looks weaker than 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 No storm? I felt I should make sure all the bases are covered. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Icon 84 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122800&fh=84 Looks weaker than 18zSlowing down each of the last 4 runs...I think a better phase is coming after HR 84... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 With the better phase is there anything stopping this from going farther north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 until the OP euro shows it, not buying in. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 WI/IA crush job at 93 on the Icon https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122800&fh=87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 With the better phase is there anything stopping this from going farther north?Depends how fast the northern stream bleeds south and phases with the southern energy. I think S/C Wisco is in a good spot for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 until the OP euro shows it, not buying in.Funny thing is, the Ukie and ICON were the first to see this storm yesterday. I would think the Euro has it on tonight's run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Hope it phases farther west so we can cash in here in eastern Nebraska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Gfs seems slower and farther west at 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 NO phase on GFS. Sees the potential but not yet. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Still 3-6 inches of snow in eastern WI with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018122800&fh=114&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 What’s interesting is how the GFS doesn’t phase but it’s still north. Not a particularly good sign for snow down here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 No phase on the GEM either but took a huge step toward it (big nw shift from 12z) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 My gut tells me that areas that just saw appreciable snowfall from this past storm- but then had it mostly melt away from rain and temps in the mid to upper 30's will do the best with this potential system. Expect more rain here in C.IA changing to CAA snows under 1" --which would more than double DEC's totals at KDSM, 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 yawn 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Ukie has a 998 L just east of Chicago at 96 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Icon at 96 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122800&fh=96 Icon/Ukie nearly identical with the surface low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Yeah- and it's also got a L around the NE/SD border at hr 72-- if it's the same low. If it is- it's another Northern Special. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 D**n if this one misses to our east barely god help us eastern NEB folk LOL. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Euro looks really interesting at hr 72... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 And Euro goes crazy.. 992 L just east of Chicago at 96 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2018122800&fh=96&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Euro looks really interesting at hr 72...992mb low just East of Chicago at hour 96. Wow. Tough to tell from limited maps, but this would be a pretty significant snowstorm for Southern Wisconsin, Eastern Iowa, and likely portions of Northern Illinois as well. I'm visiting family in Evanston, IL right now, so I'd love it if the Euro is on to something here. Pretty amazing to compare that to the much weaker system on the GFS: 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Have to wait for the precip maps to come out but pretty good runs tonight. NAM/ICON/UKIE/Euro all showing a major system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 My God something to track?! I remember this system showing up a while back...then gone for a while...and now it's back. Nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Man that sim radar on the Euro is gorgeous https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122800/usa/base-reflectivity/20181231-2100z.html 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Looks like Euro has about 8-12 inches of snow in eastern WI about 3-5 in N IL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 $$ is spot on from the precip maps I saw. Will not post for now. E.NE and most of IA (minus the far E) left out once again. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 It all depends on how fast the northern energy moves AKA the arctic blast. If it moves slower then expected.....expect this system to be more north and west. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 00z EPS continues to show more and more members phasing both streams, the stronger members have bigger hits and farther NW and the weaker ones are father SE. It's all going to depend on timing of both pieces phasing. I'm pretty confident there will be a snowstorm and it looks like parts of WI, and even E IA, who have been neglected this year will see their first appreciable snowstorm. #Buildthatsnowpack 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 GRR buying a more NW solution which means slop to rain here in SMI. Maybe some LES on the backside with the brief cold shot. Good luck to Iowa and Wisconsin, NW Illinois? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 NAM is awful Cold rain for everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 NAM is awful Cold rain for everyoneNo phasing. Yuck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 The low tracks from eastern NE and goes ENE to southern lake MI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 SMI can do better w this system, if the northern streamer flows in faster and brings in the cold air faster, otherwise, looks like a rainstorm .....agggaaaiinnnnn!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2018 Report Share Posted December 28, 2018 Icon similar to 0z euro Low gets down to 995 in W MI Low tracks from MO just to the east of Chicago https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122812&fh=72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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