New Year's Storm

[james1976]

Gonna suck if I get missed to the east after getting missed to the west all winter.

[Money]

Gfs/gem all east with no phase

 

Both are really close but the northern stream is too far northeast

[Iowawx]

Whoever started this thread jumped the gun on this. This doesn’t look like anything major at all. Light rain if that.

[Money]

Whoever started this thread jumped the gun on this. This doesn’t look like anything major at all. Light rain if that.

I’m guessing you didn’t look at the euro last night or icon this morning

 

Phasing systems always give models problems because all the pieces have to come together just right

[Iowawx]

I’m guessing you didn’t look at the euro last night or icon this morning

 

Phasing systems always give models problems because all the pieces have to come together just right

Just looked at that. Those look better. Just hope Iowa doesn’t miss out on whatever this system ends up doing.

[bud2380]

GFS says no phase. ICON is now phasing later than previous runs and misses most of Iowa with any appreciable precip.  We'll see what the Euro has to say, but these types of storms are tricky and rarely seem to materialize for eastern Iowa anyways.  

[hlcater]

Yea the 12z (North) American suite is pretty terrible for the NYE system. Only an itty bitty bit of snow on the MW side but not really any cold sector precip at all. Seems these models come close to phasing, but just don’t. Like bud said, it seems phased systems never really work out over our area.

[Money]

Ukie looks better..

[bud2380]

Here's the 12z Ukie.  Can't see p-type or temps at this hour, so we can only hope/assume this is snow.  

 

[Hawkeye]

There's no cold air ahead of this system, so even the models that spin it up are showing most of the snow holding off until after it passes my area.

[Niko]

I am hoping for no phase for my area. Thinking this would allow colder air to rush in quicker and have the southern streamer follow it. There is always hope for this.

[Money]

I am hoping for no phase for my area. Thinking this would allow colder air to rush in quicker and have the southern streamer follow it. There is always hope for this.

That’s not nice

[jaster220]

There's no cold air ahead of this system, so even the models that spin it up are showing most of the snow holding off until after it passes my area.

 

what year is this again? 

[jaster220]

That’s not nice

 

I'm very tempted to pull on that rope lying across Lk Mich as well, but you Wisco Cheese-heads deserve a hit even moreso than I do since I at least got in on Nov (he didn't)

[St Paul Storm]

I'm very tempted to pull on that rope lying across Lk Mich as well, but you Wisco Cheese-heads deserve a hit even moreso than I do since I at least got in on Nov (he didn't)

Good luck over there. I’m rooting for ya.

[Money]

Euro looks way less phased

 

More like GFS at 72

[hlcater]

12z models are less phased across the board. Originally I thought a less phased solution was better but all that really nets is no cold sector precip at all especially with western extent. I think I want my phased solution back after seeing the latest model runs.

[Madtown]

[Niko]

That’s not nice

[Money]

Euro

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122812/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.html

 

It does end up phasing just a little later than last run

[Snowshoe]

Talk about having to thread the needle. Pretty small bullseye over Green Bay.

 

Euro

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122812/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.html

It does end up phasing just a little later than last run

[Clinton]

18z NAM is trying to deliver.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122818&fh=84

[BrianJK]

Not to worry. If this one doesn’t work out, I hear there are BIG changes in... a couple more weeks. January is going to be Yuge! And if not, dont worry, February will be amazing - that’s when chicago has its 1 week of “winter” last year.

[gimmesnow]

Rain then cold all winter long, then final weeks we get all our snow and we make average snowfall. Really wasn't expecting this three years in a row.

[Money]

Icon nails eastern Iowa into northern IL/S WI

[gosaints]

Gfs moving further away from a phase need that trend to reverse...

[james1976]

Weak stuff on gfs. Nam lookin better

[St Paul Storm]

Icon nails eastern Iowa into northern IL/S WI

Way to hang in there.

[hlcater]

Less phasing on 00z NAM. Money does well but he’s the only one. 3-5 for middle Wisconsin and northern MI.

[Madtown]

how msn lookin?

[hlcater]

how msn lookin?

2-4

[bud2380]

I’m going all in on the ICON. Showing a few inches IMBY. What could go wrong?

[bud2380]

GFS stays the same.

[Grizzcoat]

CMC slightly better than it's 12Z run (through hr66).-- but I think it's wrong. Just not in the cards for a phase with the teleconnections.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie with somewhat of a phase-- 850 not out yet, but most precip should be snow on the far W side.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie 850  72hr (really need the 66hr to see whats going on) . Interesting for E.IA - N.IL and S.Wi-- Be interesting to see if the Euro bites-- I say NO.

 

[hlcater]

@Hawkeye you still have those nice ukie QPF maps?

[hlcater]

@Hawkeye you still have those nice ukie QPF maps?

 

I don't know how much of that on the backside is snow, but probably most of it. It's very restricted with the northward extent of QPF and disagrees with basically all other models. I'm gonna join grizzcoat on this one and toss it.

[Money]

Euro

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122900/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.html

[hlcater]

Euro

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122900/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-0300z.html

Would be a significant storm if cold air caught up faster. Tons of cold sector precip, but cold air lags.