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New Year's Storm

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#51
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:34 AM

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I am hoping for no phase for my area. Thinking this would allow colder air to rush in quicker and have the southern streamer follow it. There is always hope for this.



#52
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:40 AM

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I am hoping for no phase for my area. Thinking this would allow colder air to rush in quicker and have the southern streamer follow it. There is always hope for this.


That’s not nice
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#53
jaster220

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:42 AM

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There's no cold air ahead of this system, so even the models that spin it up are showing most of the snow holding off until after it passes my area.

 

what year is this again?  :rolleyes:


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#54
jaster220

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:44 AM

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That’s not nice

 

I'm very tempted to pull on that rope lying across Lk Mich as well, but you Wisco Cheese-heads deserve a hit even moreso than I do since I at least got in on Nov (he didn't)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#55
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:58 AM

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I'm very tempted to pull on that rope lying across Lk Mich as well, but you Wisco Cheese-heads deserve a hit even moreso than I do since I at least got in on Nov (he didn't)


Good luck over there. I’m rooting for ya.
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#56
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:05 AM

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Euro looks way less phased

More like GFS at 72

#57
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:15 AM

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12z models are less phased across the board. Originally I thought a less phased solution was better but all that really nets is no cold sector precip at all especially with western extent. I think I want my phased solution back after seeing the latest model runs.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#58
Madtown

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Historic😐🙄

#59
Niko

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:21 AM

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That’s not nice

;)



#60
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:36 AM

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Euro

https://weather.us/m...0101-0300z.html

It does end up phasing just a little later than last run

#61
Snowshoe

Posted 28 December 2018 - 12:19 PM

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Talk about having to thread the needle. Pretty small bullseye over Green Bay.

 

Euro

https://weather.us/m...0101-0300z.html

It does end up phasing just a little later than last run


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#62
Clinton

Posted 28 December 2018 - 12:41 PM

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18z NAM is trying to deliver.

 

https://www.tropical...018122818&fh=84


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#63
BrianJK

Posted 28 December 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Not to worry. If this one doesn’t work out, I hear there are BIG changes in... a couple more weeks. January is going to be Yuge! And if not, dont worry, February will be amazing - that’s when chicago has its 1 week of “winter” last year.
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#64
gimmesnow

Posted 28 December 2018 - 01:24 PM

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Rain then cold all winter long, then final weeks we get all our snow and we make average snowfall. Really wasn't expecting this three years in a row.


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#65
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 01:25 PM

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Icon nails eastern Iowa into northern IL/S WI

#66
gosaints

Posted 28 December 2018 - 01:57 PM

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Gfs moving further away from a phase need that trend to reverse...

#67
james1976

Posted 28 December 2018 - 03:38 PM

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Weak stuff on gfs. Nam lookin better



#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 28 December 2018 - 04:17 PM

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Icon nails eastern Iowa into northern IL/S WI


Way to hang in there.

#69
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:04 PM

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Less phasing on 00z NAM. Money does well but he’s the only one. 3-5 for middle Wisconsin and northern MI.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#70
Madtown

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:05 PM

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how msn lookin?

#71
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:13 PM

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how msn lookin?


2-4

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#72
bud2380

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:42 PM

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I’m going all in on the ICON. Showing a few inches IMBY. What could go wrong?
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#73
bud2380

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:45 PM

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GFS stays the same.

#74
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 December 2018 - 07:54 PM

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CMC slightly better than it's 12Z run (through hr66).-- but I think it's wrong. Just not in the cards for a phase with the teleconnections.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#75
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 December 2018 - 08:53 PM

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ukie with somewhat of a phase-- 850 not out yet, but most precip should be snow on the far W side.Attached File  P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif   239.18KB   0 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#76
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:13 PM

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ukie 850  72hr (really need the 66hr to see whats going on) . Interesting for E.IA - N.IL and S.Wi-- Be interesting to see if the Euro bites-- I say NO.

 

Attached File  TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif   206.96KB   0 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#77
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:39 PM

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@Hawkeye you still have those nice ukie QPF maps?


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#78
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 09:44 PM

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@Hawkeye you still have those nice ukie QPF maps?

783f65a18430f0cb0a5d6298d0107997.png

 

I don't know how much of that on the backside is snow, but probably most of it. It's very restricted with the northward extent of QPF and disagrees with basically all other models. I'm gonna join grizzcoat on this one and toss it.


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#79
Money

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:27 PM

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Euro

https://weather.us/m...0101-0300z.html

#80
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:38 PM

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Would be a significant storm if cold air caught up faster. Tons of cold sector precip, but cold air lags. 


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#81
hlcater

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:42 PM

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QPF field actually looks a lot like the Ukie. 

 

17bbe70d516faf8cbaf5b493ff98cdf0.png


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#82
GDR

Posted 28 December 2018 - 10:44 PM

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Attached File  AAD1F6B9-E4A5-4DCB-8253-99E325564030.png   643.24KB   0 downloads

#83
Grizzcoat

Posted 28 December 2018 - 11:24 PM

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The Euro is a step in the right direction for many posters. Attached File  ecmwfued-null--usnc-90-C-kucheratot.png   53.13KB   0 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#84
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 03:22 AM

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00z EPS took a big step in the right direction for IA/WI posters...I'll also add the Euro Control which is a big hit for E IA/WI posters.  Nice storm taking shape on the more trusted models.


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#85
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 03:27 AM

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Just glanced through all 51 EPS members and basically all of them show some type of snowstorm for IA/N IL/MN/WI/MI....most of them show a major snowstorm somewhere.  I'd say that is a positive trend.


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#86
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 03:42 AM

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It's pretty amazing comparing the GEFS and EPS snow mean inside 84 hours.  GEFS members are not enthusiastic at all with the potential for a snowstorm while the Euro/EPS are pretty much a "go".



#87
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 December 2018 - 03:44 AM

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I know it will change and all-- and being in C.IA it still would only be a 1-3" event- but when the Ukie and Euro trend in the right direction at this time frame (sub 72hr) -- it's a good thing. Rather have the Ukie and Euro go this way than any other 2 models- every thing else being =. Good sign. But still need a solid 24-36 hours more before I can offciially get excited for 1-3". (Thats a big deal when you have had 2.7" for the entire winter) .


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#88
Madtown

Posted 29 December 2018 - 05:24 AM

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mkx calling for rain all day in Madison?

#89
badgerwx

Posted 29 December 2018 - 05:28 AM

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mkx calling for rain all day in Madison?


Take a peek at their forecast disco from this morning.

#90
Madtown

Posted 29 December 2018 - 05:35 AM

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Mkx disxo... doesn't sound promising to me?

Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing during the afternoon especially over se WI. Overall, more snow for pcpn type nw of MSN to more rain over se WI. Nly winds and low level cold advection will eventually cool temps enough for a transition to snow. As the system moves away Mon eve, a loss of ice crystals occurs due to a dry slot, thus light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur. In summary, light ice and snow accum is forecast with this system but the ensemble runs suggest wide ranging possibilities of snow accum. If a deeper low can occur, more snowfall would be expected.

#91
VMB443

Posted 29 December 2018 - 05:40 AM

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Mkx disxo... doesn't sound promising to me?

Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing during the afternoon especially over se WI. Overall, more snow for pcpn type nw of MSN to more rain over se WI. Nly winds and low level cold advection will eventually cool temps enough for a transition to snow. As the system moves away Mon eve, a loss of ice crystals occurs due to a dry slot, thus light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur. In summary, light ice and snow accum is forecast with this system but the ensemble runs suggest wide ranging possibilities of snow accum. If a deeper low can occur, more snowfall would be expected.


I saw that too - I wonder if they are hedging their bets after that last “storm” where they issued a Winter Storm Warning for half an inch of snow. Playing it safer on this one perhaps?

#92
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:18 AM

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Just being cautious

Phasing système give models nightmares. Really won’t know what happens until things start developing

#93
Hawkeye

Posted 29 December 2018 - 07:24 AM

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The 12z ICON just caved to the weak/east GFS.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#94
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 07:42 AM

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Both NAM’s show the heaviest snow band right where the EPS has its heaviest snow mean across S/C WI. I’d be very surprised if both the Euro & Ukie back off and cave towards the other models.
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#95
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 07:55 AM

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Gfs was a little bit better than previous runs

#96
GDR

Posted 29 December 2018 - 08:14 AM

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Maybe your area but garbage everywhere else

#97
Madtown

Posted 29 December 2018 - 08:40 AM

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Can we squeak enough out to get a sled down a hill? That is the main question🙂
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#98
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 08:41 AM

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GEM took a step towards the ukie/Euro

Ukie looks similar to 0z pressure wise etc

#99
Hawkeye

Posted 29 December 2018 - 08:41 AM

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This is looking like some light rain followed by a sloppy inch at the end for my area.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#100
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:02 AM

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12z Ukie looks like a decent hit from E IA into S/C WI from GRB on south...MKE may be a close call...