New Year's Storm

[hlcater]

QPF field actually looks a lot like the Ukie. 

 

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

The Euro is a step in the right direction for many posters. 

[Tom]

00z EPS took a big step in the right direction for IA/WI posters...I'll also add the Euro Control which is a big hit for E IA/WI posters.  Nice storm taking shape on the more trusted models.

[Tom]

Just glanced through all 51 EPS members and basically all of them show some type of snowstorm for IA/N IL/MN/WI/MI....most of them show a major snowstorm somewhere.  I'd say that is a positive trend.

[Tom]

It's pretty amazing comparing the GEFS and EPS snow mean inside 84 hours.  GEFS members are not enthusiastic at all with the potential for a snowstorm while the Euro/EPS are pretty much a "go".

[Grizzcoat]

I know it will change and all-- and being in C.IA it still would only be a 1-3" event- but when the Ukie and Euro trend in the right direction at this time frame (sub 72hr) -- it's a good thing. Rather have the Ukie and Euro go this way than any other 2 models- every thing else being =. Good sign. But still need a solid 24-36 hours more before I can offciially get excited for 1-3". (Thats a big deal when you have had 2.7" for the entire winter) .

[Madtown]

mkx calling for rain all day in Madison?

[badgerwx]

mkx calling for rain all day in Madison?

Take a peek at their forecast disco from this morning.

[Madtown]

Mkx disxo... doesn't sound promising to me?

 

Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing during the afternoon especially over se WI. Overall, more snow for pcpn type nw of MSN to more rain over se WI. Nly winds and low level cold advection will eventually cool temps enough for a transition to snow. As the system moves away Mon eve, a loss of ice crystals occurs due to a dry slot, thus light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur. In summary, light ice and snow accum is forecast with this system but the ensemble runs suggest wide ranging possibilities of snow accum. If a deeper low can occur, more snowfall would be expected.

[VMB443]

Mkx disxo... doesn't sound promising to me?

 

Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing during the afternoon especially over se WI. Overall, more snow for pcpn type nw of MSN to more rain over se WI. Nly winds and low level cold advection will eventually cool temps enough for a transition to snow. As the system moves away Mon eve, a loss of ice crystals occurs due to a dry slot, thus light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur. In summary, light ice and snow accum is forecast with this system but the ensemble runs suggest wide ranging possibilities of snow accum. If a deeper low can occur, more snowfall would be expected.

I saw that too - I wonder if they are hedging their bets after that last “storm” where they issued a Winter Storm Warning for half an inch of snow. Playing it safer on this one perhaps?

[Money]

Just being cautious

 

Phasing système give models nightmares. Really won’t know what happens until things start developing

[Hawkeye]

The 12z ICON just caved to the weak/east GFS.

[Tom]

Both NAM’s show the heaviest snow band right where the EPS has its heaviest snow mean across S/C WI. I’d be very surprised if both the Euro & Ukie back off and cave towards the other models.

[Money]

Gfs was a little bit better than previous runs

[GDR]

Maybe your area but garbage everywhere else

[Madtown]

[Money]

GEM took a step towards the ukie/Euro

 

Ukie looks similar to 0z pressure wise etc

[Hawkeye]

This is looking like some light rain followed by a sloppy inch at the end for my area.

[Tom]

12z Ukie looks like a decent hit from E IA into S/C WI from GRB on south...MKE may be a close call...

[bud2380]

Ukie looks strong but looks to be mostly rain.

[Money]

How is it up this way?

[Minny_Weather]

I'm actively rooting against this one. Last thing I need is a repeat of yesterday's driving conditions across Iowa.

[Tom]

How is it up this way?

Looking at the 540mb thickness, it looks mainly snow...

[bud2380]

Disregard my comment on the Ukie, I was somehow looking at a previous model run.  QPF is still high, 850s are cold enough to support snow, but it's almost impossible to tell for sure when/where the rain to snow line will setup or when a change to snow would happen.  Potential is there though.  

[bud2380]

QPF

 

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

850s

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_060_0850.gif

[snowstorm83]

I'm actively rooting against this one. Last thing I need is a repeat of yesterday's driving conditions across Iowa.

31st is also a big travel day for me, coming back to Lincoln. Flying out of Memphis where there's supposed to be rain and storms and then a layover at MSP where it's gonna snow. Hooray

[Tom]

12z GEFS looked a bit better for snow potential across S/C WI...

[Money]

Euro looks a lot like ukie at 48

[St Paul Storm]

Still plenty of swings and misses among the 12z GEFS. Still very northern stream dominant. Pretty crazy how different the models are with an event that is within 60 hours.

[Money]

Euro looks like 4-8 for most of southern WI and 2-4 for NE Iowa

 

Not much elsewhere

[Money]

Radar Simulation at 7 pm

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122912/usa/base-reflectivity/20190101-0100z.html

[bud2380]

Looks like 2-4" from Iowa City to Waterloo and points to the east and north in Iowa.  heaviest snow is in S. WI 

[james1976]

Well at least the king is still showing it. I just hope I dont get missed to the east.

[Money]

Euro

 

QPF

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122912/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190101-1900z.html

 

Snow depth

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018122912/wisconsin/snow-depth-in/20190101-0500z.html

[St Paul Storm]

Madison and Milwaukee look good.

[Hawkeye]

Well, the euro is headed in the right direction.  About 0.30" qpf worth of snow is the best run so far for Cedar Rapids.

[bud2380]

I'm satisfied with 2-4" on the Euro the way this winter is going.  If it changes over to snow here just a tad quicker amounts could go up by another couple inches.  QPF is there.

[Money]

Crazy seeing the models so far apart 2 days away

[Hawkeye]

Of course, even if we do manage to scrape a few inches out of this, it'll be gone in a week.