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New Year's Storm

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#101
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Ukie looks strong but looks to be mostly rain.

#102
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:15 AM

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How is it up this way?

#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:16 AM

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I'm actively rooting against this one. Last thing I need is a repeat of yesterday's driving conditions across Iowa.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#104
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:17 AM

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How is it up this way?

Looking at the 540mb thickness, it looks mainly snow...



#105
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:23 AM

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Disregard my comment on the Ukie, I was somehow looking at a previous model run.  QPF is still high, 850s are cold enough to support snow, but it's almost impossible to tell for sure when/where the rain to snow line will setup or when a change to snow would happen.  Potential is there though.  



#106
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:24 AM

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QPF

 

 

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

850s

 

TT_GZ_UU_VV_060_0850.gif



#107
snowstorm83

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:29 AM

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I'm actively rooting against this one. Last thing I need is a repeat of yesterday's driving conditions across Iowa.


31st is also a big travel day for me, coming back to Lincoln. Flying out of Memphis where there's supposed to be rain and storms and then a layover at MSP where it's gonna snow. Hooray

#108
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:33 AM

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12z GEFS looked a bit better for snow potential across S/C WI...



#109
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:59 AM

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Euro looks a lot like ukie at 48

#110
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:01 AM

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Still plenty of swings and misses among the 12z GEFS. Still very northern stream dominant. Pretty crazy how different the models are with an event that is within 60 hours.

Attached Files



#111
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:17 AM

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Euro looks like 4-8 for most of southern WI and 2-4 for NE Iowa

Not much elsewhere

#112
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:22 AM

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Radar Simulation at 7 pm

https://weather.us/m...0101-0100z.html
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#113
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Looks like 2-4" from Iowa City to Waterloo and points to the east and north in Iowa.  heaviest snow is in S. WI 


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#114
james1976

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:27 AM

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Well at least the king is still showing it. I just hope I dont get missed to the east.

#115
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Euro

QPF

https://weather.us/m...0101-1900z.html

Snow depth

https://weather.us/m...0101-0500z.html

#116
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:36 AM

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Madison and Milwaukee look good.

#117
Hawkeye

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:38 AM

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Well, the euro is headed in the right direction.  About 0.30" qpf worth of snow is the best run so far for Cedar Rapids.


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#118
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:39 AM

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I'm satisfied with 2-4" on the Euro the way this winter is going.  If it changes over to snow here just a tad quicker amounts could go up by another couple inches.  QPF is there.



#119
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Crazy seeing the models so far apart 2 days away

#120
Hawkeye

Posted 29 December 2018 - 10:49 AM

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Of course, even if we do manage to scrape a few inches out of this, it'll be gone in a week.


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#121
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 12:03 PM

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On my phone and the 12z EPS is steady as she goes and nearly a carbon copy to last nights 00z snow mean.

#122
james1976

Posted 29 December 2018 - 12:08 PM

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On my phone and the 12z EPS is steady as she goes and nearly a carbon copy to last nights 00z snow mean.

Nice. That even threw a few inches my way

#123
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 12:36 PM

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Thermal issues for E WI on the 18z NAM. The low is further west, keeping the warmer air in place. But, it’s the NAM.

#124
Madtown

Posted 29 December 2018 - 12:43 PM

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Hard not to get excited that some snow may fall, but sure seems like a really marginal set up.
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#125
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 12:45 PM

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3k nam is a little better up this way but yeah 12k was warm

#126
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:04 PM

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18z ICON back to the stronger snowier further NW solution.

#127
hlcater

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:08 PM

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18z ICON back to the stronger snowier further NW solution.

2-4" for much of E IA and WI. Euro and Ukie remain the snowiest. 


2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#128
Madtown

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:10 PM

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The one time the Euro is gonna cave is when it shows snow over mby😀😆

#129
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:17 PM

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Yeah Icon back to what it was showing yesterday with the snowier NW solution. E IA and S WI with a nice hit.

#130
Madtown

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:18 PM

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3pm disco from mkx saying trace to maybe 2". Rain snow mix 6:1 to 8:1 snow ratios. snooze fest according to them.

#131
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:18 PM

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18z RGEM looks really phased and north as well

998 L just north of STL at 48

Euro/Ukie for thé win?

#132
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:19 PM

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RGEM at 51 looks a lot like icon

https://www.tropical...018122918&fh=48

#133
Tom

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:23 PM

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18z RGEM looks really phased and north as well

998 L just north of STL at 48

Euro/Ukie for thé win?


Hopefully that defo band can over perform and cool the air aloft if the dynamics are better. The Euro shows this clearly.
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#134
badgerwx

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:27 PM

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Ever since I started following this forum, I find myself second guessing my local WFO...lol
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#135
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:38 PM

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Gfs is caving a bit more each run
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#136
james1976

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:58 PM

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DMX with a long detailed disco only to say a light glazing of ice and less than an inch of snow. Lol
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#137
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:58 PM

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Liking the trends here on some of the models, including the GFS. Northern piece able to sneak far enough south to deliver some snow.

#138
james1976

Posted 29 December 2018 - 01:59 PM

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Needless to say, offices are not excited about any good snow amounts.

#139
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 02:01 PM

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MPX:

Warm air
aloft could result in a mix of sleet/freezing rain and snow near
the onset until the column cools overnight. This could cut down on
snowfall totals a bit initially. The brunt of the precip will
develop late Sunday night with a nice frontogenetically driven
band of snow stretching across central MN. Models are impressive
with QPF, ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Ensemble members show
good clustering within this range as well. Could see some 6 inch
totals in places. Eventually this band will swing southeast and
bring snow across the rest of the area, particularly Monday and
Monday evening. Amounts in these areas will be ligher.

#140
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 December 2018 - 02:39 PM

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DMX with a long detailed disco only to say a light glazing of ice and less than an inch of snow. Lol

I rarely read their AFD's anymore. Their winter forecasting skills as of late have been seriously lacking and warm bias has always been evident. Case in point today's high was supposed to be 27F from the morning forecast, so far it's been only 20F. also ; The WWA that most of C.IA was put in yesterday AM was only issued because of the reports of FZDZ-- not a forecast but a nowcast. THe previous day a SWS was issued for a line of TS's for gusty winds and small hail, which never materialized. I can do better on my own and with the info provided here.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#141
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 December 2018 - 03:06 PM

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FV3 caving to the Euro.

#142
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 04:26 PM

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EPS Control very similar to the Euro Op, even slightly more robust with the snow in Iowa.  

 

Attached File  Capture.PNG   134.27KB   1 downloads


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#143
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 04:30 PM

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How’s it look in WI? (Euro control)

#144
bud2380

Posted 29 December 2018 - 04:52 PM

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How’s it look in WI? (Euro control)

 

very good.

 

https://weather.us/m...0102-1800z.html


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#145
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 December 2018 - 04:54 PM

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How’s it look in WI? (Euro control)

Attached File  ecmwfa1ec-null--usnc-84-C-frozentot10k.png   44.49KB   1 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#146
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:15 PM

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NAM just caved to the euro big time in terms of phasing/precip etc
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#147
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:16 PM

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really liking the NAM....


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#148
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:19 PM

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https://www.tropical...018123000&fh=48

Solid.

#149
Money

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:26 PM

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Nam with nearly 10 inches of snow in eastern WI (lakeshore counties)

http://www.pivotalwe...7&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#150
Hawkeye

Posted 29 December 2018 - 06:37 PM

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NAM is so far nw this run that east-central and southeast Iowa get rain while Des Moines gets snow.  :P


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"