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New Year's Storm


Tom

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UK MET thermals are little dicey in E.IA until Hr 48. Areas further W should be all snow with decent ratios. Still only talking 1-4" in C.IA-- But I will take it.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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UK MET thermals are little dicey in E.IA until Hr 48. Areas further W should be all snow with decent ratios. Still only talking 1-4" in C.IA-- But I will take it.

Also backed off on QPF a tad in Iowa.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Doesn't really get going until it passes Iowa, but once it does, it's more potent. Kind of a win some lose some. I'd like the potency of the 00z with the earlier onset of snow of the 12z. kthx.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Its 2:45 and ARX, MKX, and DVN have yet to put out a disco...wondering if they are thinking about hoisting a watch or something.

That's much different than here at DMX-- they are always last to issue an AFD, especially with a tricky forecast. Handy site for reading AFD's around nation without having to go to each office's web site is found here--

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/disc/

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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She's a tough season for widespread snowfall in this sub forum-- that is for sure. GFS holds steady again with paltry amounts (if any) for most reading this.  

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Great stuff from MPX this morning. They admit they really aren’t sure why the streams don’t phase, but they offer some insight:

 

This set up has all the ingredients in place to be a major winter

storm, but they just don`t come together quite right. The H300 and

H500 maps set the stage for the phasing of the trough from the polar

jet over the northwest with the trough from the subtropical jet over

west Texas. Meanwhile the H850 temperature gradient across the

Dakotas is very impressive, with near 20C separating South Dakota

from North Dakota.

 

However, for reasons that aren`t quite clear, the polar and

subtropical jet never phase, and this storm is never able to tap

into the potential of the thermal profile across the Upper

Midwest that is ripe for cyclogenesis. It appears that perhaps

the cause is an upper level ridge over Alaska that ends up

breaking over the Canadian Rockies, which causes the downstream

upper level trough to take on a positive tilt. Regardless, this

system quickly races off toward New England, and all that the

Upper Midwest will experience is several hours of light snow,

followed by breezy winds, and very cold air.

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