New Year's Storm

[Money]

Slower, stronger and colder at 33

 

Low is down to 997 west of Chicago...

 

Centrsl IA hit good

[Money]

12z NAM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018123012&fh=45&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[gimmesnow]

Watch this storm turn out good after a week before it I go "I'm not spending $200 on new torsion springs for my snowmobile, I'm only going to end up riding it for 3 days anyways"

[bud2380]

Not looking good in eastern Iowa. Euro was overly bullish the past couple days. Looks like mostly rain with maybe a sloppy dusting to 1/2” here.

[Hawkeye]

Yep, this is turning into another nothingburger for eastern Iowa in a dud winter.

[hlcater]

Can we please just skip this winter? I’m already ready for spring and we’re not even a month in.

[SE Wisconsin]

From MKE:

 

UPDATE...

Today into tonight will be quiet. Expect more sunshine near the
WI/IL border vs areas up toward Sheboygan/Fond du Lac/Baraboo.

New guidance rolling in for Monday into Monday night still looks
very high on precip amounts. The dynamic, ever changing temperature
profile, near precip type thresholds, will make this a very
difficult forecast to pin down. Be prepared for surprises through
this event. The early onset of the precipitation on Monday will
bring a threat for some freezing precipitation, before temps warm
up. Then temps begin to fall during the afternoon into the
evening, resulting in a switch back to snow. Areas north of
Milwaukee and Madison could see some decent snow accums if temps
fall quick enough. Stay tuned.

[Money]

Euro cut the qpf in half

[Madtown]

ugh

[St Paul Storm]

The King just flopped.

 

This winter is a joke so far.

[Madtown]

Unreal

[bud2380]

Euro has been wrong every time it has shown appreciable snow in my area this season. Bleh.

[badgerwx]

Ready for spring

[badgerwx]

I guess Ill be saving on propane and snow removal costs this winter...thats a plus.

[hlcater]

Euro has been wrong every time it has shown appreciable snow in my area this season. Bleh.

Well so has every model that has shown snow in our area to be fair. 

[gimmesnow]

Wow I keep trying to abuse Murphy's Law with this stuff and it never works. The worst part of owning a snowmobile in SE Wisconsin is that when you give up and are tired of winters, the snowmobiles have no value. And when the snow is good and value is up, you don't want to sell it.

[St Paul Storm]

Models aren’t showing much for the next 2 weeks either. If we get to mid Jan without a snowstorm I’m hoping I don’t fire up the snowblower once this winter. If it’s gonna suck let’s really suck.

[hlcater]

Awful thermodynamic profile for CR tomorrow. 2 degrees too warm through the low levels and no capacity for any mesoscale cooling. Only thing that's gonna get that to cool is CAA, which is going to come in late as we know. Epic.
 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2018123018_022_42.05--91.63.png

[hlcater]

Looking increasingly like the cold sector precip will be there, but the cold air won't. So like 0.5" of rain followed by 1" of slop at best. Can't really say I'm looking forward to that.

[Money]

Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4 for most of southern WI

[Money]

18z runs actually look better

 

RGEM good for Iowa

[Minny_Weather]

I'll be in Dubuque tomorrow. Looks like rain followed by maybe an inch of slop at best. Sorry I had to come here and ruin the storm, Iowans!

[badgerwx]

I'll be in Dubuque tomorrow. Looks like rain followed by maybe an inch of slop at best. Sorry I had to come here and ruin the storm, Iowans!

Was going to come to DBQ for NYE but looks like the weather may keep us closer to home

[St Paul Storm]

Pretty minimal event for all, rain or snow.

[jaster220]

GRR going with "up to 5 inches" but APX's issued at 12:42 doesn't give any amts. You know their confidence is very low. Can't remember seeing a WWA that didn't mention an amount(s).

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI313 PM EST Sun Dec 30 2018MIZ037>040-043>046-310415-/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0026.181231T1500Z-190101T1200Z/Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare,Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, and Mount Pleasant313 PM EST Sun Dec 30 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AMEST TUESDAY...* WHAT...Freezing rain will move in during the late morning to  early afternoon hours on Monday. A transition to snow is  forecasted for Monday evening and the snow could be heavy at  times before tapering off late at night. Total snow  accumulations of up to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around  one tenth of an inch expected.* WHERE...Portions of central and west central Michigan.* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet orfreezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slipperyroads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.&&$$

[Madtown]

Come on everyone! Storm mode!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Come on everyone! Storm mode!!!

It's been so long I don't know what that feels like anymore....

[Madtown]

[Money]

Nam/HRR with 6-10 for GB area

 

 

Really amped up

[badgerwx]

NWS Chat is pretty boring tonight

[Minny_Weather]

Riding the rain/snow line big time here in DBQ tomorrow. The NAMily has the cutoff right on the Dubuque/Jackson county lines. Doesn't really matter, whatever snow falls will be low-ratio, above freezing slop more than likely.

[Andie]

They're actually forecasting freezing rain for North Texas on Wednesday.

High of 34* and Low of 26*.

Light accumulation, but enough to make Texas drivers drive like silly buggers.

[Grizzcoat]

RAP and to a lesser extant, HRRR; seem to be pushing back  ever so slightly to the NW. Good for Central IA and towards Madtown

[Grizzcoat]

Nam also with a more W shift at the last minute. Liking  these last minute trends even if it's only 1-2" -- it's been such a bad winter. DSM still hasn't seen a 1" or more snowfall from any event. 

[Madtown]

still looking like rain with 1in o slop...good ol el nino

[Stacsh]

Beautiful stream of moisture on radar. DEC 31st rain storm. Ugh

[Tom]

After looking at most models and the way this system is developing, I think from MSN to SBM look to be in the prime spot with this one.  Madtown and Money look to be in a good spot, esp when the defo band gets going.  Looks like the models wrap it up quite well later tonight.  Trends this season are for last minute shifts and this system has those characteristics as the storm deepens moving through the GL's.  The dynamics on the Euro and CAM's seem to be pointing to dynamic cooling across S/C WI and into N MI.

 

Here was the 06z Euro run...

[Minny_Weather]

Models haven't handled this well so far. The initial band of rain isn't even close to the QCs yet and models had it to Dubuque by now.

[Snowshoe]

Riding the northern edge. Not sure what to expect. Could see flurries on up to 4".

[bud2380]

Surface temps are holding in the 33-35 degree range here, which of course won't bode well for snowfall and definitely not for accumulating snowfall.  Best case scenario is likely some flakes start to fall on the backside and we get a dusting.