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New Year's Storm


Tom

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One can only imagine what this system would have been like if temps were about 5 degrees colder. That radar looks amazing and juiced....nice comma shape look has developed. Oh well, you win some, you loose some. See you back in late Feb.

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One can only imagine what this system would have been like if temps were about 5 degrees colder. That radar looks amazing and juiced....nice comma shape look has developed. Oh well, you win some, you loose some. See you back in late Feb.

Yeah, this could have been a nice 4-6" snowfall for many of us.  Oh well.  At least roads will be in good shape for all the holiday traffic.  

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After looking at most models and the way this system is developing, I think from MSN to SBM look to be in the prime spot with this one.  Madtown and Money look to be in a good spot, esp when the defo band gets going.  Looks like the models wrap it up quite well later tonight.  Trends this season are for last minute shifts and this system has those characteristics as the storm deepens moving through the GL's.  The dynamics on the Euro and CAM's seem to be pointing to dynamic cooling across S/C WI and into N MI.

 

Here was the 06z Euro run...

 

Guess APX finally likes what the models are showing. Upgrade!

 

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

 

 

MIZ018-021>024-026>030-312330-

/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/

Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Grand Traverse-

Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-

Including the cities of Rogers City, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta,

Alpena, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville

1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

7 AM EST TUESDAY...

 

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing to

all snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 6

to 9 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible.

 

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

 

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.

Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet

and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

 

&&

 

$

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Guess APX finally likes what the models are showing. Upgrade!

If only it was just a tad colder...it would have been our WSW as well. Not our Winter buddy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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If only it was just a tad colder...it would have been our WSW as well. Not our Winter buddy.

 

That's what was nice about NMI, at least inland away from the coasts, during MET winter it almost never rained. Occasionally you'd get a sleeter, but plain rain was super rare. 

 

(Gaylord) what I wouldn't give to see this in my local grid:

 

 20181231 Gaylord icons.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That's what was nice about NMI, at least inland away from the coasts, during MET winter it almost never rained. Occasionally you'd get a sleeter, but plain rain was super rare. 

 

(Gaylord) what I wouldn't give to see this in my local grid:

 

 attachicon.gif20181231 Gaylord icons.PNG

Man, missed those forecast words. Thats how my local grid looked like last year from all those intensified clippers passing on by my area and a few storm systems.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There's a batch of heavy precip in NW Missouri that looks like it will rotate through into eastern Iowa. If temps are cooled enough by then, it could drop an inch or so of snow as the band looks pretty strong.  If it's still rain by the time it gets here though, then that's all she wrote.  

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Like everyone else is saying..... you know it's bad when you are solidly in the deformation zone on New Year's Eve and it's rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Screw the CAMs, I like what the 12z Euro has so I'm just gonna ride that. On a serious note, the HRRR, RAP and Euro drop 3-4" wherever that axis of heavy precip in KS goes. Euro likely has the wrong idea with the size, but if that heavy axis pivots over a given location for awhile, there could be some locally enhanced amounts there.

 

411ea65e52d5e43c1f155caaadf87172.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Screw the CAMs, I like what the 12z Euro has so I'm just gonna ride that. On a serious note, the HRRR, RAP and Euro drop 3-4" wherever that axis of heavy precip in KS goes. Euro likely has the wrong idea with the size, but if that heavy axis pivots over a given location for awhile, there could be some locally enhanced amounts there.

 

That's interesting.  The euro says the snow will begin in Cedar Rapids after 2pm, so we'll see how that goes.  It's still 34 degrees here in town.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That's interesting.  The euro says the snow will begin in Cedar Rapids after 2pm, so we'll see how that goes.  It's still 34 degrees here in town.

It's snowing in Marshalltown and Newton. Ptype and snow plow cameras in S IA say that big blob of precip in S IA is switching to snow as well. Obviously to have any shot at the Euro's solution that needs to be snow when it gets here. Either that or a localized band of snow sets up somewhere and pivots as the system departs, there's some historical merit for that. Not entirely sure how those work synoptically, but one of those bands dropped like a foot in SE WI last winter, with that being a proof of concept and in no way a prediction, our system would probably have to be twice as amped for that to realistically be in the cards.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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It's snowing in Marshalltown and Newton. Ptype and snow plow cameras in S IA say that big blob of precip in S IA is switching to snow as well. Obviously to have any shot at the Euro's solution that needs to be snow when it gets here. Either that or a localized band of snow sets up somewhere and pivots as the system departs, there's some historical merit for that. Not entirely sure how those work synoptically, but one of those bands dropped like a foot in SE WI last winter, with that being a proof of concept and in no way a prediction, our system would probably have to be twice as amped for that to realistically be in the cards.

f42cdd01c2729f960933513fab8315b3.jpg

 

Plow cam in between Osceola and Chariton.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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28F and a few flurries starting here. The precip associated with the northern piece is farther south than modeled. Areas in the winter storm warning north of the twin cities might bust hard. Meanwhile -9F in Fargo. Here comes the blast.

I must have stolen Tom's magnet... That thin band is absolutely ripping right on top of me.

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There is a bright band just about to move into Cedar Rapids.  There must be snow flakes up in the clouds at least.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a bright band just about to move into Cedar Rapids.  There must be snow flakes up in the clouds at least.

I've got rain and snow mixed here. Not nearly 50/50, more like 80/20. Just a couple of fat flakes mixing in.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I've got rain and snow mixed here. Not nearly 50/50, more like 80/20. Just a couple of fat flakes mixing in.

 

I am now seeing the first slushy raindrops as well.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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