Snowfall decrease over past 30 years

[Scott]

https://www.craigdailypress.com/news/snowpack-has-declined-by-an-average-of-41-percent-in-rocky-mountains-over-past-3-decades/

[Phil]

In other words, the East Pacific ITCZ and Hadley Cell have been migrating northward over time, sending the storm track poleward and reducing cold season precipitation.

 

This process is complicated, nonlinear, and state dependent in totality. It doesn’t require an external trigger to initiate, and it’s just as much a driver of climate change as it is an effect of it.

 

Oh, and it’s been ongoing since the 1700s (before the beginning of the industrial revolution).

[Phil]

IE: The system has (ironically) moved into a preferential La Niña esque antecedent state with time (more off-equator convection, broadening z-cells/ITCZ, drying across SW North America, expanding warm pool, weakening STJ).

 

This winter is trying to go the other way just a tiny bit, but it’ll have to fight through a lot of systematic inertia to turn the tide. You don’t lock in trends for 300+ years unless there’s a powerful, intertia-laden driver.

[snow_wizard]

The decrease in snowfall in the NW certainly has a lot to do with the winter mid point getting so incredibly early in recent years.  The mid point (or the date of the average coldest temperature) in Seattle used to be Jan 18, but now it's in December.  

 

Maybe this winter not being front loaded will work out for us in the end.