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Weather in 2019

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#1
Phil

Posted 04 January 2019 - 04:37 PM

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Hopefully it’s a fun one!
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#2
Phil

Posted 04 January 2019 - 04:39 PM

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Stagnant pattern continues for a few more weeks with the warm rains and moderate back quadrant breezes.

Rest up for the typically-heavier action from the last week of January to the first week of April. Could be another long winter with the SSW/+ENSO and potential for eastward propagation of low frequency forcing with time.

My hunch is we see at least one solid snow event during the first half of February. Possibly two, but at least one event. Then another one in early/mid March.
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#3
snow_wizard

Posted 04 January 2019 - 10:24 PM

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The million dollar question is did we dissipate enough of the built up heat in the Western Pacific to preclude a long lasting El Nino.  I say it's a 50/50 shot right now.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#4
Phil

Posted 04 January 2019 - 10:51 PM

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The million dollar question is did we dissipate enough of the built up heat in the Western Pacific to preclude a long lasting El Nino. I say it's a 50/50 shot right now.


My hunch is a moderate or strong niño in 2019/20 followed by a powerful multiyear niña lasting through at least the early 2020s. Could be a 3+ year cold ENSO event, in which case a PDO/PMM tank is likely as well.

But I don’t think the system will be ready for it next winter. Could be one last niño to get through.
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#5
iFred

Posted 05 January 2019 - 01:18 AM

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Its enjoyable to watch the snow weenies in the east squirm and prep their winter cancel banners.


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#6
Phil

Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:09 AM

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Its enjoyable to watch the snow weenies in the east squirm and prep their winter cancel banners.


I actually agree. Especially the New England ones.

Spoiled motherf**kers. :lol:
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#7
Andie

Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:32 AM

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In the south we don't look forward to the Niñas as they bring drought. However, that said, this cold weather this year in Texas has bothered a lot of people as well. I think it's the moisture. We've had 63" of rain and the winter continues to be wet or damp and frankly, a lot of us are ready for some moderation. Not drought, but moderation.

So, that said,...what is your prognostication of drought for the south?
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#8
Phil

Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:44 AM

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2018 was probably the wettest year ever for my area.

Total was 84.08”. And over 50” of that fell during the summer months. Had a few training thunderstorms dump some insane totals in very short periods of time.

eKx81Bu.jpg
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#9
Phil

Posted 05 January 2019 - 11:25 AM

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Just had a nice elevated convective squall. Sheets of windswept rain and gusty winds.

What looked like a shallow stable layer kept gusts under 40mph, but the clouds were racing across the sky just off the surface.
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#10
snow_wizard

Posted 05 January 2019 - 12:49 PM

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2018 was probably the wettest year ever for my area.

Total was 84.08”. And over 50” of that fell during the summer months.

eKx81Bu.jpg

 

50 inches of the rain in the summer just sounds miserable.  I hate warm and wet weather with a passion.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#11
Phil

Posted 06 January 2019 - 09:24 AM

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50 inches of the rain in the summer just sounds miserable. I hate warm and wet weather with a passion.


It’s not fun since it comes in 15 minute bursts, yields to blasting sunshine, and contributes to insane humidity for months on end.

And we haven’t had a “good” severe weather season to make it worthwhile since 2014. Hopefully this year delivers otherwise it’s pointless.
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#12
Phil

Posted 06 January 2019 - 09:33 AM

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Beautiful day today, highs in the 50’s with bright sunshine and a deep blue sky. A bit breezy though w/ gusts between 30-40mph, which is a bit higher than forecasted. Gotta love downsloping.
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#13
Phil

Posted 08 January 2019 - 12:39 PM

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Was a beautiful cloudless afternoon to this point, but a solid wall of cumulus is moving is as I type this.

Frontal passage looks timed for ~ 10-11pm here. Should be an initial wall of wind with the front/pressure surge, followed by the typical lull before the CAA/gradient winds kick up later. Should be 40-50mph regionwide, stronger with increasing latitude and elevation. So typical stuff minus the saturated ground.
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#14
Phil

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:36 PM

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About to get nuked. Impressive convective gusts being picked up by a number of stations out west, though nothing too impressive at the official Winchester/Marrinsburg airports yet.

EmJMLil.jpg
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#15
Phil

Posted 08 January 2019 - 06:56 PM

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My station registered to 47mph, decent given all the large trees around here.

Must have been a pre-frontal squall..still waiting for the CAA/pressure surge.
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#16
Phil

Posted 08 January 2019 - 09:57 PM

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Man it’s ripping out there. My station just hit 51mph, so it’s cutting right through the trees.

House is shaking like a mofo too. Watching my glass of diet dr. pepper ripple with each gust, lol.
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#17
Phil

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:36 PM

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That was a nice snow squall, briefly down to ~ 1/4mi visibility with winds between 35-40mph. Some graupel mixed in too. Picked up maybe 1/10th of an inch, lol.

Round 2 moving in now. No graupel, little to no wind, big fluffy flakes.
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#18
Phil

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:17 PM

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Mountain waves. 🌊

RK5l99E.jpg
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#19
Phil

Posted 11 January 2019 - 11:22 AM

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LWX has issued a winter weather advisory for 3-5” of snow for this area. Should be plenty cold enough for everything to stick.

My hunch is it will be a bit less than 3-5” locally and we’ll lose some to virga, but I’d love to be wrong. And the folks at LWX are usually fantastic, so if you’re a betting man/woman, bet on them, not me. 🤓

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions central and north central Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.


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#20
Phil

Posted 12 January 2019 - 02:03 PM

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Light snow falling as the sun sets @ 5pm.

About 1/3”. 30.6/26.

fk10LiH.jpg
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#21
Phil

Posted 12 January 2019 - 04:41 PM

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Went for a walk..beautiful out there. All you can hear is the pitter-patter of the snowflakes hitting the ground.

~1.5” and 29.3 degrees
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#22
Phil

Posted 12 January 2019 - 05:38 PM

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Kudos to LWX..looks like a last minute slowing/deepening trend has taken place across guidance.

Appears as if 4-8” is the most likely outcome now as the comma head pivots overhead tomorrow afternoon.
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#23
Phil

Posted 12 January 2019 - 07:07 PM

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Bumped up to 5-10”.

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches expected.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult due to snow covered and slippery roads.


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#24
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:38 AM

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Bumped up to 5-10”.

big time overachiever a few days ago this looked like only a inch or 2 in our reagion and kelp growing as time went buy impressive.
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#25
Phil

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:58 AM

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Have ~ 6” and counting here even with compaction. Been a long duration light snow..started ~ 230pm yesterday so closing in on 22hrs.

MkoR4th.jpg

DbnBSPW.jpg
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#26
Phil

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:27 AM

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Clouds of snow starting to blow off the evergreens now.

I’m not sure it’s possible to get a completely calm snowstorm here. Has to be a real paste job to hold it.
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#27
Phil

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:51 AM

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That’s a massive ice storm on the 12z ECMWF.

Some snow/sleet followed by 2” of freezing rain then strong NW winds. Yikes.
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#28
K%%

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:53 PM

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That’s a massive ice storm on the 12z ECMWF.

Some snow/sleet followed by 2” of freezing rain then strong NW winds. Yikes.

 

Sounds fun (..ish). I'd take even that over this overcast/partly sunny PACNW nonsense.


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#29
Phil

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:12 PM

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Sounds fun (..ish). I'd take even that over this overcast/partly sunny PACNW nonsense.


This pattern has promise finally. I’m closing in on 10” here. Hard to believe how much this storm is over performing..it looked like a 3-4” type deal just a day and a half ago. Almost reminds me of 2000..and models weren’t nearly as good back then as they are now.
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#30
Phil

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:43 PM

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Still snowing as we approach midnight. Started at approximately 230pm yesterday so it’s been 31.5 hours and counting.

I’m estimating ~ 11” right now. I want to say a foot, but I don’t think we’ve quite made it yet, and I’m too tired to go out and measure. I suppose we could pick up another inch or so, but pending an obvious increase in accumulation I’m sticking with 11”.

A very enjoyable event, all things considered. Big time overperformer. And possibly just an appetizer ahead of some bigger storms later this month and into early February.
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#31
Phil

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:37 PM

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The temperature is plummeting with the clear skies and relatively fresh snowpack.

NWS point & click has a low of 15*F here tonight.
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#32
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 January 2019 - 07:35 AM

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If we are to have a block buster storm my suspension is feburary is the best chance giving El nino climo and the trend of the last few years
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#33
Phil

Posted 15 January 2019 - 10:00 AM

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Low of 14.7*F this morning in a mediocre airmass.

Gotta love fresh snowpack.
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#34
Phil

Posted 15 January 2019 - 04:13 PM

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9 degrees at Dulles, 25 degrees at DCA this morning.

That’s quite a difference.
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#35
Phil

Posted 16 January 2019 - 09:44 AM

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Another chilly morning..16.9*F here, 13*F at Dulles, and of course a toasty 24*F at DCA.

Looks like a quick hitting winter event arrives tomorrow evening, with maybe an inch of snow w/ some glaze on top. Then attention turns to the big weekend storm and Arctic blast behind it.
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#36
Phil

Posted 17 January 2019 - 02:22 PM

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Winter weather advisory for 1-2” this evening, timed right for the evening rush. A few snow flakes just starting to fall as of ~ 520pm. Should be be a quick one.

Still have a decent snowpack here, so hopefully we can add to it before the weekend washout/flash freeze event.
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#37
Phil

Posted 17 January 2019 - 04:28 PM

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Solid moderate snow, I think we’ll hit an inch.

Coating everything like paste. Beautiful.
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#38
K%%

Posted 18 January 2019 - 07:45 PM

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INCREDIBLY jealous of you guys. You have no idea.


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#39
Phil

Posted 18 January 2019 - 07:58 PM

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INCREDIBLY jealous of you guys. You have no idea.


When summer comes around I’m sure the tables will be reversed as usual.

I am craving a deep cyclone, though. We haven’t had a high wind warning event or a blizzard/blowing snow event yet..and desperately desire one. :)
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#40
K%%

Posted 18 January 2019 - 08:52 PM

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When summer comes around I’m sure the tables will be reversed as usual.

I am craving a deep cyclone, though. We haven’t had a high wind warning event or a blizzard/blowing snow event yet..and desperately desire one. :)

 

EURO's your run, shows some very deep cyclones (one of them shows 60-70 widespread gusts across the Mid-Atlantic region). I think you'll get something good, at the very least.


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#41
Phil

Posted 18 January 2019 - 10:44 PM

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EURO's your run, shows some very deep cyclones (one of them shows 60-70 widespread gusts across the Mid-Atlantic region). I think you'll get something good, at the very least.


Tough pattern to get deep storms in though..that cold vortex tends to suppress/flatten waves a bit. We should get winds between 40-50mph Sunday afternoon, but nothing outrageous.

Big winds here usually wait until Feb-Apr. Obviously the 40-50mph stuff can happen anytime, but 60-70+ usually requires a combination of dynamic forcing and vertical instability that isn’t fully present until insolation increases a bit, starting in the middle of February.
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#42
Phil

Posted 19 January 2019 - 11:13 AM

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Intermittent mist this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, not looking like any wintry start.

Wind advisory for gusts to 50mph tomorrow afternoon behind the Arctic front. Wind chills to -10*F appear likely.
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#43
weatherfan2012

Posted 19 January 2019 - 01:46 PM

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Intermittent mist this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, not looking like any wintry start.
Wind advisory for gusts to 50mph tomorrow afternoon behind the Arctic front. Wind chills to -10*F appear likely.

I suspect wind chill advisorys will be needed with those type of wind chill numbers

#44
Phil

Posted 19 January 2019 - 05:01 PM

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I suspect wind chill advisorys will be needed with those type of wind chill numbers


Yeah, probably. First legitimately frigid airmass of the winter too so people may not be used to it.
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#45
Phil

Posted 20 January 2019 - 01:34 AM

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Insane thermal gradient this morning..downtown DC is in the middle 50s with S winds gusting to 30mph while we’re still wedged in at 38 degrees with fog/mist,

Cold front blasts through around midday.
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#46
Phil

Posted 20 January 2019 - 07:54 AM

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Was dead calm all morning with thick fog, now getting slammed with wind and a few snowflakes. Dewpoint plummeting.
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#47
Phil

Posted 20 January 2019 - 10:59 AM

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My station registered a 53mph gust, highest so far this winter. No diurnal temperature cycle either, as CAA has been dominating.
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#48
Phil

Posted 21 January 2019 - 08:24 AM

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Edited this post for sequence instead of writing a new one.

There was a HUGE blast of wind late last night that hit the house like a ton of bricks. It was a blustery night but that gust was a f**king nuke..like a rogue wave. Startled the crap out of me.

It was strong enough to make my ears pop, send our 200 pound grill careening off the deck, rip off three windowscreens, and pelt the house with all kinds of tree debris.

I have no idea what caused it. It was a completely clear night, no snow squalls or anything. Must have been a mountain wave or just a random turbulent eddy. But the effects of it are evident across the neighborhood this morning. Sizeable and pine limbs blown hundreds of yards from the source trees, shingles, and hardwood twigs all over the place.
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#49
Phil

Posted 21 January 2019 - 08:40 AM

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Still roaring like a freight train this morning. Highest gust today has been 49mph (even with the trees). Temps have been hovering in the teens as well. Classic midwinter day for sure.

I think the gust last night came out of the N instead of the NW, because my station didn’t get it (blocked by a 70ft pine). Otherwise it would’ve easily surpassed the 53mph gust registered yesterday afternoon.
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#50
dairyd

Posted 22 January 2019 - 07:37 AM

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Edited this post for sequence instead of writing a new one.

There was a HUGE blast of wind late last night that hit the house like a ton of bricks. It was a blustery night but that gust was a f**king nuke..like a rogue wave. Startled the crap out of me.

It was strong enough to make my ears pop, send our 200 pound grill careening off the deck, rip off three windowscreens, and pelt the house with all kinds of tree debris.

I have no idea what caused it. It was a completely clear night, no snow squalls or anything. Must have been a mountain wave or just a random turbulent eddy. But the effects of it are evident across the neighborhood this morning. Sizeable and pine limbs blown hundreds of yards from the source trees, shingles, and hardwood twigs all over the place.

 

Edited this post for sequence instead of writing a new one.

There was a HUGE blast of wind late last night that hit the house like a ton of bricks. It was a blustery night but that gust was a f**king nuke..like a rogue wave. Startled the crap out of me.

It was strong enough to make my ears pop, send our 200 pound grill careening off the deck, rip off three windowscreens, and pelt the house with all kinds of tree debris.

I have no idea what caused it. It was a completely clear night, no snow squalls or anything. Must have been a mountain wave or just a random turbulent eddy. But the effects of it are evident across the neighborhood this morning. Sizeable and pine limbs blown hundreds of yards from the source trees, shingles, and hardwood twigs all over the place.

 

I know this wind, It was howling all night down in nova.  We lost power for 8 hours around 7pm with that gust.  temp dropped to 13 overnight.


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