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Weather in 2019

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#51
Phil

Posted 22 January 2019 - 10:15 AM

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I know this wind, It was howling all night down in nova. We lost power for 8 hours around 7pm with that gust. temp dropped to 13 overnight.


Yikes. Hope you had a way to stay warm.

Luckily we have propane and a backup wood burning stove as well, if necessary.

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#52
dairyd

Posted 22 January 2019 - 10:42 AM

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Yikes. Hope you had a way to stay warm.

Luckily we have propane and a backup wood burning stove as well, if necessary.

We just moved here from WA, need to get a small genset to run the gas furnace at least.  I started a fire in the fireplace but didn't help much. I come from a farm where we had 50kw backup power so I'm a bit spoiled. When I was house shopping I asked everyone how often the power went out and it was as if I was from another planet.  welp got my answer

I was watching the mesoscale map as the power went out, the isobars at 850 and 925 were super tight and straight N/S as the gust hit.  My guess is the convergence was perfect for a wave, but open for your thoughts.


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#53
Phil

Posted 22 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

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We just moved here from WA, need to get a small genset to run the gas furnace at least. I started a fire in the fireplace but didn't help much. I come from a farm where we had 50kw backup power so I'm a bit spoiled. When I was house shopping I asked everyone how often the power went out and it was as if I was from another planet. welp got my answer

I was watching the mesoscale map as the power went out, the isobars at 850 and 925 were super tight and straight N/S as the gust hit. My guess is the convergence was perfect for a wave, but open for your thoughts.


Welcome to the area! I’m glad we have someone new to add to this empty thread, haha. Where in NOVA are you located?

Yeah, that might have been a factor. Our big wind events are almost always out of the W/NW during cold advection/pressure surge events, and are often enhanced by downsloping/mountain waves. You’ll rarely (if ever) see strong winds from the SE, E, or NE unless you live right on the coast.

Depending on exactly where you’re located with respect to the mountains upstream, these W/NW winds can easily surpass 70-80mph during strong frontal passages, and can rage on for days. So hopefully you picked a good spot, haha.

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#54
dairyd

Posted 22 January 2019 - 12:41 PM

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Welcome to the area! I’m glad we have someone new to add to this empty thread, haha. Where in NOVA are you located?

Yeah, that might have been a factor. Our big wind events are almost always out of the W/NW during cold advection/pressure surge events, and are often enhanced by downsloping/mountain waves. You’ll rarely (if ever) see strong winds from the SE, E, or NE unless you live right on the coast.

Depending on exactly where you’re located with respect to the mountains upstream, these W/NW winds can easily surpass 70-80mph during strong frontal passages, and can rage on for days. So hopefully you picked a good spot, haha.

Thanks! near Lorton/Springfield up in the valley a bit.  I'm fascinated by following advection, if you've ever watched the fraser outflow events in the PNW, they are generally similar, different direction (NE tilt).  I'm surprised it is similar coming off a lower height range spread over a larger area but goes to show how much energy is in these continental systems! 

It's pretty interesting here getting a feel for how the lows redevelop and deform across the frontal boundaries vs. a pacific system.  The overruns are very different.


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#55
Phil

Posted 23 January 2019 - 02:02 PM

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Funny, just as I start talking about the rarity of southerly windstorms, we actually have a chance at one early tomorrow morning. Short lived event, but with the very strong LLJ and dynamic forcing ahead of the cold front, it’s a distinct possibility.

If this event materializes, it could be very problematic for the trees. Not only because they don’t experience strong south winds often, but because the ground is saturated, and heavy rain will be falling. Bad combo.

If it was W/NW winds, it’d be no big deal. I’m preparing to lose power, just in case.

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#56
Phil

Posted 24 January 2019 - 02:09 AM

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High wind warning for the Blue Ridge.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect until 6 AM EST Thursday. The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect.

* TIMING...Through tonight.

* WINDS...South 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.


Advisory for 50mph gusts here. We’ll see if it verifies..so far the southerlies haven’t mixed down much.

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#57
Phil

Posted 24 January 2019 - 10:51 AM

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Bust here so far as far as wind is concerned.. ~ 1.1” of rain though, so the wet pattern is still going.

Morning high of 59.4*F, temps dropping thru the mid-40s currently.

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#58
Black Hole

Posted 24 January 2019 - 02:31 PM

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Just checking in on this thread for the 1st time in 2019. How would you summarize winter for you so far Phil?


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Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#59
Phil

Posted 24 January 2019 - 02:55 PM

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Just checking in on this thread for the 1st time in 2019. How would you summarize winter for you so far Phil?


I’d call it a mixed bag. The local weather pattern has been behaving sort of weird since last summer, and this winter has continued that theme to some extent.

- So much rainy, stormy gloom..2018 was our wettest year on record by a long shot and that pattern has continued into 2019, albeit in cold-season form (more sunshine and dry NW flow in-between storms). Still, not even a hint of a warm/dry regime right now.

- One solid 10-12” snowstorm. An early season snowfall back in the second week of November. Other than that, not much else in the winter precip department. A few snow squalls here and there, but nothing impactful.

- Moderate temperatures. No single digit lows or sub-20 highs here yet. Quick hitting waves..haven’t really been punching into the warm sectors of storms much. Lots of quick, pulsey fronts but none of the heavy, overpowering wind events yet (though it’s still a bit early for that). Quick hitting systems in general.

So, sort of a muted/hesitant feel to the pattern so far, almost as if Mother Nature is planning something nefarious down the road. What exactly that might entail..who knows? 🤓
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#60
Phil

Posted 24 January 2019 - 04:02 PM

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Looks like Dulles gusted to 51mph this afternoon.

Hit 40mph here. So under advisory criteria by 5mph.

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#61
Andie

Posted 25 January 2019 - 01:07 PM

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Just checking in on this thread for the 1st time in 2019. How would you summarize winter for you so far Phil?


A lot like early Spring 😒
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#62
Phil

Posted 29 January 2019 - 06:58 AM

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Looking more closely, I think tomorrow could be very interesting during the midday/early afternoon period. A very deep mixing layer/steep mid level lapse rates will be present w/ the passage of the Arctic front.

There could definitely be some dynamic snow squalls across the NW half of the CWA, as well as a brief, 2-3hr window of gusty westerly winds around 50mph (maybe 55-60mph within squalls if some of the BUFKIT soundings are to be trusted).

I think a wind advisory or special wx statement along/west of the Fall Line and DCA-northward might be warranted just in case that pans out.

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#63
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 February 2019 - 11:09 AM

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The last few years march has brought the biggest snow of the entire season I wonder if that trend continues this march as well our biggest storm hits in March once again :lol:

#64
weatherfan2012

Posted 05 February 2019 - 07:16 PM

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The American models and the ecmwf could not be in a more different page the American models are showing warm to record warm while the Ecmwf is showing coast to coast cold certainly has been a rough winter for forecasters as many pro mets have really been scratching there heads on how this winter has played out.it will be interesting how the remainder of this winter gos.regardless how the rest of this winter gos in my opinion eather 2019-2020 or 2020-2021 we will likely get a blockbuster winter season as every solar min we had at least one block buster so odds would point to one pretty soon.

#65
weatherfan2012

Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:06 AM

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The problems so far this winter has been a mjo that has been out of phase with a warm enso event I think many in there fall winter outlooks went with a classic Nino type winter and that's where one could argue many got burnt on this winter as things were giving us clues this was not going to be a typical warm enso type of winter more of a fake boot but was largely missed by most.the fact north Carolina has more snow then alot of places in the northeast this winter is absurd those the 80s did have that quite a few times.

#66
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 07 February 2019 - 09:26 AM

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The problems so far this winter has been a mjo that has been out of phase with a warm enso event I think many in there fall winter outlooks went with a classic Nino type winter and that's where one could argue many got burnt on this winter as things were giving us clues this was not going to be a typical warm enso type of winter more of a fake boot but was largely missed by most.the fact north Carolina has more snow then alot of places in the northeast this winter is absurd those the 80s did have that quite a few times.

Yada yada yada. They call them telisignals now days. Does it get cold because of a signal, turns negitive, or does the signal turn negative because it get cold. Its the chicken or the egg. We are in primetime in the mid Atlantic. Need I mention March 1993, or 1898...


I heard all the el nino drums.....

Capt Jackpot....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#67
Phil

Posted 08 February 2019 - 01:02 AM

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Looks like a decent frontal passage coming this morning.

Toasty morning high in the 60s, then 40+mph winds with temps falling into the 40s by 3pm, mid-20s tonight, and the mid/upper teens tomorrow night.

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#68
Phil

Posted 08 February 2019 - 11:20 AM

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Warm and breezy. Gust of 40mph according to my station with temps still in the 50s thanks to downsloping.

Upcoming pattern looks active as we ride the gradient.
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#69
weatherfan2012

Posted 08 February 2019 - 09:16 PM

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Warm and breezy. Gust of 40mph according to my station with temps still in the 50s thanks to downsloping.
Upcoming pattern looks active as we ride the gradient.

we are due for a big march blizzard maybe this will be the year

#70
Phil

Posted 15 February 2019 - 10:26 AM

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Been a tranquil week here, minus those 2 icy days.

Mid 60’s here with a stiff south wind as of 130pm. Hard to believe it could be snowing tonight.

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#71
Phil

Posted 22 February 2019 - 02:54 PM

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This weekend looks dynamic. Large Great Lakes cyclone blasts front through here on Sunday afternoon, with a vigorous wind field aloft. The component is somewhat more Wrly than NWrly initially, which climatologically favors areas along/north of I-70 for the strongest gusts.

As modeled now, it would not surprise me to see a few isolated gusts surpass 60mph around Parr’s Ridge, from N-MD down to the favored areas of Damascus, Mt. Airy, Germantown, Leesburg, etc. Less certain south of there, since there could be a cutoff of sorts as you head south of DC.

Also questionable whether we’ll be fully warm sectored or partially wedged in before the frontal passage, but in either case we’ll see a big temp spike beforehand, either via downslope/compressional warming or from the WAA itself behind the warm front.
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#72
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 February 2019 - 01:42 AM

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Looks like a wind storm for sure.

Could be a severe weather outbreake including a tornado, SE quad of high plains blizzard.
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#73
Phil

Posted 23 February 2019 - 03:13 PM

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LWX is mentioning the poor diurnal timing as a reason for hedging in the lower elevations during the overnight hours.

Personally that’s baffling to me, given both the crashing thermals at the top of the mixing layer and the pressure rises. Usually W/NW winds mix down very well in these situations N of I-70, unless there’s precipitation falling or a muted pressure surge.

I think if there’s a “lull” it will be brief (in the 4AM to 7AM period) and wouldn’t warrant a discontinuation of the advisories except maybe along/south of I-70. I’d personally run it straight through until around 12-2pm on Monday just to be safe, but they’re the experts.

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#74
Phil

Posted 23 February 2019 - 04:13 PM

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That’s a 75mph mountain-wave on the 18z 3km NAM on Monday morning, in the classic location (this is 900mb, so well within the climatological boundary layer for that area as insolation increases).

Whether or not that verifies (to such an extreme and atbthe modeled timeframe) remains to be seen, but I’m thinking there will be isolated cases where stronger wind gusts that meet HWW criteria mix down east of the terrain, assuming the model solutions hold.

I’m sure LWX is keeping an eye on this one. Saturated soil + no serious wind events yet this winter could be problematic for the Monday morning rush hour if the worst comes to pass.

AF85Vo4.png
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#75
Phil

Posted 23 February 2019 - 04:19 PM

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These 850mb winds..at least it’s 12z and not 18z, or we’d be in huge trouble. Still, when you have 70-80kts @ 850mb in a CAA/pressure rise regime downstream and perpendicular to terrain, right as insolation increases following sunrise, that’s a recipe for at least a few isolated pseudo mountain-wave type gusts (or just strong gusts in general) in the favored locations.

K1S9ze0.png
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#76
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 24 February 2019 - 01:45 AM

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With the saturated ground this could get ugly.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#77
Andie

Posted 24 February 2019 - 08:46 AM

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You guys keep safe.

Texas is a snoozer right now.
Clear, no wind, 60*. No rain, just nothin'
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#78
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:56 AM

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Huge gusts in the mountains.

88mph at Snowshoe, and 83mph at a nearby station. Of course, that won’t all reach the surface out here, but that’s still legit.

https://www.wundergr...SNOWS11#history
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#79
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 24 February 2019 - 12:05 PM

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Forecast highs 2 days ago, 67. Today 62. At 20Z 46.7F. That would be a bust. Welcome to CADville....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#80
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 03:09 PM

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Starting to roar here. Dulles already at 49mph, further west Martinsburg is at 62mph, Leesburg at 53mph.

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#81
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:15 PM

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Yikes, 66mph at MRB now.

Roar starting to get more frequent but it hasn’t gone big just yet. Some quick pulses to 50mph starting just as the first wind advisory is expiring, lol (next one starts up at 4AM). Tomorrow morning will probably be crazy looking at the modeled upper level winds.

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#82
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:20 PM

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Wow..75mph in Streby, WV. Also a few stations in Winchester just downwind of Back Mountain are reporting gusts to 75mph. The 88mph in Snowshoe is the strongest of anywhere in this storm so far. Hagerstown also to 65mph as well.

Man, when that gradient moves over us tomorrow morning..it will take no prisoners.

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#83
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:36 PM

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Wintergreen to 81mph.

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#84
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:40 PM

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Martinsburg having a rough night.

mLu5H8T.jpg

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#85
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 07:42 PM

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Series of transformer explosions to my west. Lit up the sky like lightning followed by that “woooomp-pop” sound.

I assume that gust is heading this way.
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#86
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 10:52 PM

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And there it is. Probably a smart move by LWX.

WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening.

* TIMING...Strong winds will continue through this afternoon.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. The highest winds are expected this morning.


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#87
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:06 PM

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Another 73mph gust in Grant County, Martinsburg is roaring again with 61mph, and Dulles just hit 54mph. To think this is well before the peak gradient, and also in the middle of the night (when mixing is poor).

I’m on edge about tomorrow morning now..I think there could be isolated swaths of serious wind gust between 8AM and 11AM, probably in the favored corridor across NE VA into Northern and Central MD.

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#88
Phil

Posted 24 February 2019 - 11:30 PM

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Wintergreen just gusted to 81mph for the 2nd time, lol.

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#89
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 01:14 AM

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Downtown DC 58mph, Silver Spring 60mph.

High Wind Warning should include DC for the morning rush hour, IMO.

(Update: LWX just expanded it to include the entire DC metro).
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#90
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 01:29 AM

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Even Hyattsville with a 63mph gust now.
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#91
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 25 February 2019 - 01:48 AM

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Last hour peak wind 42mph W Baltimore.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#92
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 02:25 AM

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70mph Shady Grove, VA. 65mph Lost River, VA.

We’ve lulled out for now, so maybe I’ll try to get some shuteye before the house starts shaking again. Lol.

Strongest gust so far is the 48mph yesterday evening behind the front. I’m thinking we’ll surpass that easily after the Sun rises.
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#93
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 25 February 2019 - 03:05 AM

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Reports of trees coming down, traffic lights out. Fun times...
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#94
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 05:54 AM

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Holy crap, had a 15 minute period of insane wind around 830AM..had to be sustained close to 50mph, gusting well over 60mph.

My station has trees blocking it and still recorded a gust of 54mph, 52mph, 51mph, and a multitude of 40-50mph gusts within that stretch.

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#95
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 06:25 AM

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This is nasty. My ears are popping..that hasn’t happened in a windstorm since last March. It feels like the house is going to explode at the seams from the pressure.

Big, old trees are bent over double and staying that way for extended periods of time.

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#96
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 25 February 2019 - 07:26 AM

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Starting to rock and roll. Peak wind 53mph
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#97
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:24 AM

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BGE 15000 with out power as of 10am. Ugly....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#98
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:35 AM

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The wind somehow got under the Silver Spring metro overhang, blasted this sign into bits and pieces, and then threw the pieces across multiple rows of train tracks.

yxfSJ1y.jpg
ApY8sED.jpg
Kc27Dl0.jpg

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#99
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:38 AM

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Go Snowshoe! Still in the lead. #representin’

iiIMwjZ.png

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#100
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 08:58 AM

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Looks like we’ve lost three screens off the porch and one off the house. And they’re nowhere to be found.

Of course.

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