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Weather in 2019

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#101
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 09:13 AM

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Go Snowshoe! Still in the lead. #representin’

iiIMwjZ.png


BTW, this should be updated with new a ranking for Dulles since they gusted to at least 58mph.

So far I have recorded 54mph on the mechanical anemometer and 62mph on the ultrasonic unit. Both are obstructed by trees to some extent, but not excessively either.

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#102
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 10:44 AM

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Mount Washington already gusted to 144mph, there’s a chance they could approach 180mph.

yBQCUnw.jpg

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#103
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 02:45 PM

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Sustained at 134mph, gusting to 162mph, and still increasing as of 545pm on Mt. Washington.

TaKZfXr.jpg
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#104
Phil

Posted 25 February 2019 - 10:44 PM

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Now 171mph. Wow.

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#105
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 26 February 2019 - 01:07 AM

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It was a bad windstorm for sure. 53mph here yesterday. I never liked winds. Growing up in the South, the first thing they teach is, "black cloud bad."

That's why I started studying them at age 6...
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#106
Andie

Posted 26 February 2019 - 10:14 AM

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Have to agree on the winds. Texas gets a lot of wind in March/April and again in October. But no thanks.
Black cloud bad is so true down here. They can just be one to pound you with rain, or change its mind and rip your roof off.

Far too fickle for me. But it's a great place to live.

We're experiencing the doldrums right now. 58*. Overcast. Mild wind.
70* tomorrow and a front moves through this weekend with Low 40's and rain.
No big whoop, it's Texas in late February.

Our seasons tend to be Winter, Weird, Spring, Summer, and Weird again.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#107
Phil

Posted 26 February 2019 - 01:01 PM

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Driving around, I noticed some houses missing siding on Bannockburn Drive, and one of the new houses had the central bay window frame (not the glass) blown in partially on the front, which could have been a flaw in the carpentry.

Also there are homes with shutters missing and a few with shutters that are *partially* missing (like, half is missing, but the other half is fully attached). Sort of hard to envision how that could happen lol...I guess they came partially detached and snapped off in turbulent eddies or something. Been mulling that one over.

Also, I’m once again impressed with the trees. Seems there is little if any weak wood remaining based on the relative lack of carnage around here after both the ice storm and now these 60+mph winds. A few evergreens were uprooted on River Road, probably thanks to the saturated soil conditions. Also, some larger crown branches were down on side streets and yards in the highly exposed areas near the Potomac River itself (mostly Glen Echo on the hill south of the bend, where the wind funnels very hard from the west). However, overall I didn’t see too many tree issues compared to what you’d typically see in a 55-65mph windstorm under saturated soil conditions. At least that is the case locally.

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#108
Andie

Posted 27 February 2019 - 06:52 AM

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I've been stunned at the wind in your area.
It's just been amazing. We get wind here, but your totals are just crazy!
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#109
Phil

Posted 27 February 2019 - 10:58 PM

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I've been stunned at the wind in your area.
It's just been amazing. We get wind here, but your totals are just crazy!


The last few years have definitely had some persistently windy patterns, and from a direction that just happens to favor us.
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#110
weatherfan2012

Posted 06 March 2019 - 08:52 PM

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Strange winter according to stats Dca had all 3 months with Above average temperatures precipitation and snow fall I simply can't recall a stat quite like that then this winter.

#111
weatherfan2012

Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:54 AM

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Phil a question for you.could one of the reasons why el ninos sucked and la ninas and cold neutul gave us big winters in the little ice age times could have played a part of the locations of the enso events meaning we had more often times east basin El ninos and La ninas as to oppose to the more recent trends?

#112
Phil

Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:25 PM

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Phil a question for you.could one of the reasons why el ninos sucked and la ninas and cold neutul gave us big winters in the little ice age times could have played a part of the locations of the enso events meaning we had more often times east basin El ninos and La ninas as to oppose to the more recent trends?


That, as well as the structure of the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool, annular/meridional modes and their seasonality, cooler climate etc. It’s all interwoven.

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#113
weatherfan2012

Posted 30 March 2019 - 05:22 PM

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Better enjoy nice weather days like this as you know our suckage season is only a few months away.
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#114
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 April 2019 - 01:02 PM

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Leave it up to the NAO to go negative just in time for April data is pin pointing another negative nao trend mid month that would really suck moose balls :lol:

#115
Phil

Posted 02 April 2019 - 01:30 PM

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Wish we could combine the two threads for synoptic banter. Most of the Feb/Mar stuff is in the other thread.

Mid-40s and drizzly this afternoon as the coastal skirts offshore. Snow fell in parts of Central NC this morning including Charlotte, which was its first April snow since 1982, or 37 years ago.

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#116
Andie

Posted 05 April 2019 - 04:44 AM

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........another negative nao trend mid month that would really suck moose balls :lol:

Can I quote you on that?
You're right though. This has been one odd winter and spring is looking wonky.

Storms this weekend with highs in the 80's.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#117
Phil

Posted 13 April 2019 - 12:38 PM

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Nice gentle thunderstorm last night. Highs in the mid-70s again today.

Tomorrow evening/overnight looks interesting. Strong windfield and anomalously high moisture fluxes/PWATs with high shear could make for a severe weather threat even beyond peak heating.

Then Monday looks like a gusty day too..mid-April insolation + downsloping/CAA/pressure rises should lead to an overperformance in mixing based on history..~45mph looks doable west of the fall line per guidance despite winds not being ideally aligned with height.

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#118
weatherfan2012

Posted 14 April 2019 - 02:10 PM

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Nice gentle thunderstorm last night. Highs in the mid-70s again today.
Tomorrow evening/overnight looks interesting. Strong windfield and anomalously high moisture fluxes/PWATs with high shear could make for a severe weather threat even beyond peak heating.
Then Monday looks like a gusty day too..mid-April insolation + downsloping/CAA/pressure rises should lead to an overperformance in mixing based on history..~45mph looks doable west of the fall line per guidance despite winds not being ideally aligned with height.

Tornado watch out for our reagion and there our tonado warnings with the line to the southwest also must watch for any discrete supercells that forum ahead of the line it self.also on top of that we got very strong winds aloft any of these storms could tap those winds at the surface tonight certainly has a shot to be legit tonight.

#119
weatherfan2012

Posted 14 April 2019 - 02:28 PM

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Possable tornado on the ground in Fredrick county and Carroll county Maryland radar is showing legit tornadic signatures in that locations in fact radar was showing winds over 100 so any body in the path really should be taking this seriously.

#120
Phil

Posted 14 April 2019 - 02:39 PM

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Tornado watch issued. Overnight QLCS possible with damaging winds and imbedded tornadoes.

I’m also interested in the potential for strong gradient winds tomorrow afternoon.

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#121
weatherfan2012

Posted 14 April 2019 - 07:24 PM

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Tornado watch issued. Overnight QLCS possible with damaging winds and imbedded tornadoes.

I’m also interested in the potential for strong gradient winds tomorrow afternoon.

          Yeah there are reports of 70 + mail winds being reported of course the Mountains out there may be enhancing the winds in the storms as well but it just gives you an indication to not sleep on these storms tonight.



#122
Phil

Posted 14 April 2019 - 09:14 PM

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That was loud.

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#123
Phil

Posted 14 April 2019 - 10:45 PM

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This was underwhelming locally. Some claps of thunder and a few hard gusts under the LLJ as some showers passed overhead and mixed it down (maybe 45mph).

A few 60+mph gusts elsewhere across the region..DCA and IAD each gusted to 48mph, but so far it doesn’t look like a worst-case outcome.

The strongest winds here will likely come from the cold advection/downsloping tomorrow afternoon.

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#124
Phil

Posted 15 April 2019 - 05:32 AM

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Wind is ripping this morning. Hitting 50-55mph repeatedly on my station as of 930AM.

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NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
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#125
Phil

Posted 15 April 2019 - 08:14 AM

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Hellacious gusts again after a lull. One of them got into the creek gulley and blew spray off the water and high into the air.

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NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
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#126
weatherfan2012

Posted 15 April 2019 - 02:09 PM

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This was underwhelming locally. Some claps of thunder and a few hard gusts under the LLJ as some showers passed overhead and mixed it down (maybe 45mph).
A few 60+mph gusts elsewhere across the region..DCA and IAD each gusted to 48mph, but so far it doesn’t look like a worst-case outcome.
The strongest winds here will likely come from the cold advection/downsloping tomorrow afternoon.

the storms seemed to have got stronger on the Eastern Shore as del had a confermed ef2 tornado last night and another possable tornado that is being investigated on the Eastern shore.it seemed here the storms were in there beginning stages and really got going once they cross the bay.

#127
weatherfan2012

Posted 19 April 2019 - 10:06 AM

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Another round of possible severe thunderstorms and heavy rain today and tonight tornado watch until midnight tonight.were see what happens.

#128
Phil

Posted 19 April 2019 - 11:06 AM

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Tornado watch and a flash flood watch in effect, the former goes until midnight, this latter until 5AM.

Dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 60s now as the LLJ cranks up. Definitely more mini-couplets today on velocity than last time.

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#129
Phil

Posted 19 April 2019 - 11:07 AM

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First (appetizer) round of downpours just rolled through here. Can’t call it a thunderstorm since I did not observe any thunder or lightning, but had a few gusts to ~ 30mph and sheets of rain.

The more organized stuff is congealing to the southwest and should roll through this evening.

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#130
weatherfan2012

Posted 20 April 2019 - 08:03 AM

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First (appetizer) round of downpours just rolled through here. Can’t call it a thunderstorm since I did not observe any thunder or lightning, but had a few gusts to ~ 30mph and sheets of rain.
The more organized stuff is congealing to the southwest and should roll through this evening.

yesterdays event literally crapped the bed here nothing to really write home about at all the real storms tracked to our west and east.

#131
Phil

Posted 20 April 2019 - 10:07 AM

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Tornado went through Reston last night, just a few blocks west of my Grandmother’s place. Houses condemned, trees snapped, etc. But luckily her place was fine. Just some minor tree damage.

Another brief couplet passed a half mile to my south. Was very weak but winds did start from the E/NE with an onslaught of pouring rain, then winds blasted in from the S/SW, taking some small limbs and new leaves/needles off the trees. But nothing too strong. No thunder or lightning either, since temps were so warm aloft and convection was relatively shallow. All driven by shear/dynamics.

Here’s an image as that thing just missed me..was probably off the ground too. Very weak circulation (I’m inside the circle).

fZgyFMI.jpg

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#132
weatherfan2012

Posted 20 April 2019 - 06:35 PM

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Tornado went through Reston last night, just a few blocks west of my Grandmother’s place. Houses condemned, trees snapped, etc. But luckily her place was fine. Just some minor tree damage.
Another brief couplet passed a half mile to my south. Was very weak but winds did start from the E/NE with an onslaught of pouring rain, then winds blasted in from the S/SW, taking some small limbs and new leaves/needles off the trees. But nothing too strong. No thunder or lightning either, since temps were so warm aloft and convection was relatively shallow. All driven by shear/dynamics.
Here’s an image as that thing just missed me..was probably off the ground too. Very weak circulation (I’m inside the circle).fZgyFMI.jpg

tornados are worse at night and especially in this case when the storms were not producing much if any lighting so you really have very little warning in realiseing one could be on the ground until it hits you.
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#133
Phil

Posted 25 April 2019 - 06:02 AM

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Tomorrow evening looks interesting..classic setup for a forced squall line around these parts with one gap in it.

Also surprised how bearish LWX is on gradient winds tomorrow night/Saturday forenoon. Looks like 40-50mph west of the Fall Line following the frontal passage and possibly again Saturday AM between 8-11AM. Mixing is almost never an issue w/ these CAA/NW flow setups. Will be more than mean-layer for sure.

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#134
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 April 2019 - 11:06 AM

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This is the 3rd tornado watch this month pretty strong storms about to come through no doubt no tornado warnings out as of yet all severe thunderstorm warnings.tornado warning Baltimore and Harford county Maryland doppler radar shows a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado there.

#135
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 April 2019 - 12:36 PM

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Line is east severe threat over here but eastern shore looks to be getting slammed line is clearly bowing out now on the eastern shore which is a sign of strong winds ahead and along the line.

#136
Phil

Posted 26 April 2019 - 01:43 PM

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Big stuff missed me (again) but man, some nasty stuff being reported to the north and east of here. Trees down, poles snapped, roofing, etc. A 76mph gust was reported at sparrow’s point.

Wind advisory for the gradient tomorrow morning. Wise move by LWX based on the 18z 3km NAM et al, which depicts terrain enhanced 850mb winds around 60kts. Not all of that will mix down, but enough will.

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#137
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 April 2019 - 01:55 PM

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Big stuff missed me (again) but man, some nasty stuff being reported to the north and east of here. Trees down, poles snapped, roofing, etc. A 76mph gust was reported at sparrow’s point.
Wind advisory for the gradient tomorrow morning. Wise move by LWX based on the 18z 3km NAM et al, which depicts terrain enhanced 850mb winds around 60kts. Not all of that will mix down, but enough will.

got heavey rain but not much wind the storms really intensified when they hit the bay.

#138
Phil

Posted 27 April 2019 - 06:17 AM

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Edit: It was Racoon Point, not Sparrow’s Point, that measured the 76mph wind yesterday. Whoops.

Gusting hard today under the gradient..fairly consistent around 45mph so far. Not as strong as the mid-April event yet but noticeably more stress on the trees with the leaves maturing.

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#139
Phil

Posted 27 April 2019 - 06:51 AM

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Big gust just now, 51mph through the trees. Took a moderate sized limb off one of the tulip poplars, which looks to have heartwood rotting upon closer inspection.

Gonna have to break out the pruning seal and chainsaw tomorrow.

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#140
Phil

Posted 29 April 2019 - 03:24 AM

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Low of 39.6*F this morning. Crisp.

Might have our first 90+ high this week, so the cool temps won’t last long.

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#141
Phil

Posted 02 May 2019 - 12:30 PM

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Decent storm blew through here. Outflow winds were around 35-40mph, followed by ~ 50mph inside the rain core itself. Wind was pretty long lasting too..went on for a solid 10 minutes. Not much close lightning, but lots of distant thunder..like a constant rumble.

High of 88*F occurred about an hour before the arrival of the storms, which popped up individually but subsequently congealed and cold-pooled into the high CAPE/low shear environment.

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#142
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Gonna be a wet night. Rain with imbedded thunderstorms will dump 1-3” between 10pm and 10AM, with localized jackpots to 4”, according to LWX.

fIH3C6F.png

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#143
weatherfan2012

Posted 05 May 2019 - 09:58 AM

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Gonna be a wet night. Rain with imbedded thunderstorms will dump 1-3” between 10pm and 10AM, with localized jackpots to 4”, according to LWX.fIH3C6F.png

never got the thunderstorms which is likey the reason the very high end rain tottels has fallen sorter then forecasted it has turned out to be an prolonged light to moderate rain marine layer cool event which we are more use to seeing here in the spring I suspect that negative nao block is doing its dirty work .funny how all winter we could not by a -nao now in may we get an all out strong one :lol:

#144
Phil

Posted 05 May 2019 - 01:33 PM

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Had some thunder here last night, but yeah nothing intense and no heavy downpours. Mostly a steady, moderate rain.

About an inch here so far. Still coming down steadily though, maybe we can reach 1.5”.
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#145
weatherfan2012

Posted 06 May 2019 - 10:42 AM

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Had some thunder here last night, but yeah nothing intense and no heavy downpours. Mostly a steady, moderate rain.
About an inch here so far. Still coming down steadily though, maybe we can reach 1.5”.

that - nao is pretty impressive right now its like a rubberband snap after the months and months on end of the Positive nao.something has certainly swich and it could well have a play in with the narrow Hadley cells.
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#146
Phil

Posted 10 May 2019 - 02:45 PM

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Downpours on and off this afternoon ahead of the cold front and pattern change.

Dewpoint is 70*F currently. Swampy.

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#147
Phil

Posted 10 May 2019 - 02:47 PM

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Nice cooldown coming this week. Lots of N/NE flow and stratiform rain, highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s some nights...850mb temperatures might even drop below zero midweek. Reminds me of May 2016.

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#148
Phil

Posted 10 May 2019 - 05:33 PM

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Just picked up ~ 0.6” of rain in 15 minutes, with the latest downpour. Just enough to turn our backyard walkway into a small creek.

Still raining, but not quite as hard. Some thunder and lightning as well.

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#149
weatherfan2012

Posted 18 May 2019 - 08:51 PM

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Storms moving north north east from the south not severe but could get nosey in some places over night.

#150
Phil

Posted 19 May 2019 - 11:34 AM

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First legitimately nasty day of the summer.

91/75, heat index 102. Storms firing up along the ridgetops..hopefully they propagate down here.

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