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Weather in 2019

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#401
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 06 November 2019 - 05:59 PM

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This will be fun. I think I will call you Tom. LMFAO...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#402
Phil

Posted 08 November 2019 - 02:24 PM

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Not much of a diurnal cycle today. Midnight high of 45*F under the blustery CAA regime.

Down to 38.1*F as the sun sets, should be a hard freeze tonight once we decouple. Mid-20s seem doable.

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#403
Phil

Posted 08 November 2019 - 09:25 PM

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Down to 13*F out at Spruce Knob. Brrr.

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#404
Phil

Posted 10 November 2019 - 07:50 PM

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Dropped to 24*F here the other night. The 21*F at Dulles was the coldest low this early in the season since 1976 when it hit 19*F, IIRC.

Another cold shot moves in this week..could be just as cold if not colder.
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#405
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 10:03 AM

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First snowflakes of the season today. Precip built back in under CAA, and there was just enough wet bulb potential to pull it off. Gusty too, station registered 40mph while the snow was falling.

No accumulation. And no diurnal temp cycle either..should drop into the low/mid 20s tonight and tomorrow night.

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#406
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 12 November 2019 - 06:42 PM

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No more dewpoints in the 70s for a while.
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#407
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 07:05 PM

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No more dewpoints in the 70s for a while.


Knock on wood.

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#408
Phil

Posted 12 November 2019 - 09:23 PM

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9msk5L6.png
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#409
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 November 2019 - 06:56 AM

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9msk5L6.png


That would be a great warning to be in!

Incredible to see that this time of year.
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#410
Andie

Posted 13 November 2019 - 10:02 AM

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Low of 21* this morning. Clear and sunny now. We had a tiny amt. of sleet, but the sleet and snow went to central and south Texas. A real treat for them. Hill Country is gorgeous in the snow.

Looking forward to whether North Texas will see any action on the Thanksgivng break.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#411
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:58 AM

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Over 200 record lows with that wave. Phill laughed when I said, "epic cold."

You see what I go through folks....
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#412
Phil

Posted 15 November 2019 - 03:10 PM

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Dulles dropped to 17*F with that last cold shot. Not bad.

Hit 21*F here. Though I suppose if I relocated my temp/humidity sensor to a better location it might have been closer to 19*F..it’s currently on my porch roof under a pine tree which is pretty sh*tty/not recommended.
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#413
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 16 November 2019 - 02:36 AM

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November 12th. 21/2 miles in S- for about 15 minutes. Precip lighten up and turned to L-.

Winds gusted to 30 mph. It was a great frontal passage. Great to see the snow fly...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#414
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 16 November 2019 - 05:42 AM

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Winds gusting to 40 mph in Norfolk. An an an old navy weather man.
..

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#415
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 November 2019 - 12:15 PM

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Looks like a zonal flow for a while. Hints of a Rocky Mountain trof 180_240 hrs. Could be in response to mid level cooling. Midwest and High Plains look primed for winter storm. Great Snowpack developing eastern Canada. Great trend for when the rubberband snaps back.

Attached File  GZ_PN_216_0000.gif   179.68KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#416
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 November 2019 - 12:16 PM

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Looks like a zonal flow for a while. Hints of a Rocky Mountain trof 180_240 hrs. Could be in response to mid level cooling. Midwest and High Plains look primed for winter storm. Great Snowpack developing eastern Canada. Great trend for when the rubberband snaps back.

Attached File  GZ_PN_216_0000.gif   179.68KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#417
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 November 2019 - 12:35 PM

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Tried to get US Air Force snow depth but it was unavailable. NOAA snow cover illistrates Snowpack. It's allmost primetime folks. 34 days to the Winter Solstice! Sorry I get off the chain folks, it happens every Spring. I live for "primetime."

Attached File  snowNESDISus.gif   22.03KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#418
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 18 November 2019 - 04:24 PM

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"Amarillo by Morning"

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#419
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 21 November 2019 - 07:29 AM

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48 hour wave takes a dive. Rain and 36F in West Baltimore. I had to change a tire in that weather in West Virginia. Cold.

Mid range is now suspect. Definitely some, "Smokey Mountain Rain."

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#420
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 07:22 AM

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Looks like a good NE wind in Greenville/Spartanburg. Looks like a bonified South Carolina low. 12Z NAM a little further  SE of BWI. NWS still clinging to warmer solution. Tight gradeant but I think BWI will fall below 40.

 

A good pattern.

 

Attached File  2019112315_metars_clt.gif   43.19KB   0 downloads

 

 


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#421
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 07:45 AM

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Nimbostratus moving in. Hot Springs Va. 33F now. Interesting....

 

Attached File  IMGv_0.jpg   119.18KB   0 downloads

 

 


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#422
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 08:33 AM

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CAD seems to be the pattern. We will see...

 

 

Attached File  GFSUS_prec_ptype_183 (1).png   147.54KB   0 downloads

 

 


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#423
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 08:41 AM

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Temp now at 32F at Hot Srrings Va. 

 

Attached File  2019112316_metars_clt.gif   42.83KB   0 downloads


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#424
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 09:20 AM

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NWS forecast 48F at BWI. 43F at 17Z.  Still 32F at Hot Srrings. Temps continue to fall in Western North Carolina.

 

Attached File  2019112317_metars_clt.gif   43.83KB   0 downloads

.

 

 


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#425
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 11:07 AM

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Attached File  2019112318_metars_bwi.gif   43.2KB   0 downloadsMg

  

 

43 F at BW.?.


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#426
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 11:24 AM

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Max heating  

 

43 F at BWI....

 

 

 

 


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#427
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 11:34 AM

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John Anderson,.

 

"simonal wind.....n.??


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#428
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 12:28 PM

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I could have missed the pain, but I would have missed  the dance....


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#429
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 12:39 PM

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Remember when, Allen Jackson.....


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#430
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 23 November 2019 - 01:50 PM

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Heavy snow in hot springs...


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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#431
Phil

Posted 23 November 2019 - 02:55 PM

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Looks like some cold weather possible in early December..some flakes/mix possible too. Could see temps in the low teens/upper single digits with a hard NW wind if the colder solutions pan out.

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#432
Phil

Posted 23 November 2019 - 03:03 PM

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Some more rain tonight in the meantime. Maybe 0.5”-0.8” followed by a breezy day tomorrow..gusts 35-40mph off the mountains as cold/dry air is advected under/just ahead of pressure rises at the peak of the diurnal cycle.

FWIW, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving could be really gnarly pending the evolution of that system as it ejects out of the Rockies. Given the -NAO in tandem with the Bermuda High and the depth of that trough over the Rockies..my hunch is there’s gonna be some tight a** pressure gradients with this one. A very anomalous, “combative” situation in the atmosphere.
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#433
Phil

Posted 24 November 2019 - 06:09 AM

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Wind is blowing harder than I expected this morning, funneling right through the Cabin John Creek Valley. Topping 40mph as of 9AM.
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#434
Phil

Posted 25 November 2019 - 06:11 PM

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Wednesday evening/overnight looks like solid wind advisory criteria along/west of the Fall Line at least. Little precip to stabilize the boundary layer during the day then a heavy pressure surge/CAA regime initiates at sundown +/- 1hr with a non saturated profile in place.

Thanksgiving travelers might be in for some white knuckle driving.

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#435
Phil

Posted 27 November 2019 - 07:39 AM

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Some intense wind fields being depicted on the HRRR/NAM/GFS for late tonight and tomorrow. The 06z ECMWF was less ridiculous but still has ~ 60kts overhead @ 850mb by 10-11z. If the 12z run bumps up to 65-70kts, LWX would pull the trigger for the I-95 corridor, I’d think.

Pressure rises/dry advection occurs overnight behind the cold front, which should cross the I-95 corridor around 00z +/- 1hr.

More of a westerly component than a NWerly one initially which might keep the best mixing along/north of a line from Leesburg to Dulles to DCA. But I’m not 100% sure on this.

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#436
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 27 November 2019 - 09:15 AM

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Second Winter Storm digs SE 84 to 120 hrs. Transfer and secondary development off DELMARVA seems likely.

There may be a few pingers or wet snow to herald in the precip shield Saturday or 0Z Sunday. Thermal profiles need to be monitored.

Keep in mind we have a neutral SPO. The hammer drops late.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#437
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 27 November 2019 - 09:32 AM

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More importantly is the the pressure combined with thermal gradient of the current storm in the Great Lakes. This could produce wind gust of 45-50 mph above 500 ft in Maryland.

Back home we called this a wind storm. I always hated them....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#438
Phil

Posted 28 November 2019 - 01:17 AM

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Roaring like a freight train. Woke us up and our guests are awake too, lol.

Looks like 53mph is the peak gust so far on the rooftop anemometer. Secondary pulse likely after sunrise.

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#439
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 03:36 AM

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Interesting storm. Some front side mix. BWI Mets have abandoned. The warm guy must have been on the night shift. The back side is more interesting now with a band of rain or snow digging down. NAM and EURO most aggressive. CMC and GFS coming around.

 

Attached File  P1_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif   270.47KB   0 downloads


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#440
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 06:21 AM

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The noise you hear is from  a lost love. I wish I could  stop it, but I can't.,..'


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#441
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 07:08 AM

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Alen Jackson,, remember when.

 

.

 

 

 

 

..


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#442
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 07:26 AM

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NAM is dripping the hammer.

Attached Files


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#443
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 10:28 AM

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Crosby Stills and Nash. Southern Cross...


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#444
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 10:45 AM

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C!lit Black. A better Man .


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#445
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 11:01 AM

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Willy  Nelson " You were always on my mind*....


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#446
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 11:31 AM

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I could have told you Vincent . This world was never ment  for those as beautiful as you.

 

 

Starry starry night,..,


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#447
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 29 November 2019 - 05:26 PM

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Blackhawk

I can't see a single storm cloud in the sky but I sure can smell the rain.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#448
Phil

Posted 01 December 2019 - 03:52 AM

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Some pics and screen grabs during/following the windstorm on Wed night/Thurs.

Saw some trees topped and mailbox casualties while walking about the following morning:

riyl561.jpg
fPMh1P6.jpg

Rough night at Petersburg, Dolly Sods, and MRB.

tTEqwnr.jpg
Ts9maVA.jpg
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#449
Phil

Posted 08 December 2019 - 06:06 AM

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Crisp morning. Dropped to 23.2*F here. Dulles to 19*F.

Looks like 30*F at the DCA hotbox.
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#450
Phil

Posted 09 December 2019 - 08:07 AM

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Fog and rain, 46*F. Sleepy weather.

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NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
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