[Phil]

Not much of a diurnal cycle today. Midnight high of 45*F under the blustery CAA regime.

Down to 38.1*F as the sun sets, should be a hard freeze tonight once we decouple. Mid-20s seem doable.

[Phil]

Down to 13*F out at Spruce Knob. Brrr.

[Phil]

Dropped to 24*F here the other night. The 21*F at Dulles was the coldest low this early in the season since 1976 when it hit 19*F, IIRC.

Another cold shot moves in this week..could be just as cold if not colder.

[Phil]

First snowflakes of the season today. Precip built back in under CAA, and there was just enough wet bulb potential to pull it off. Gusty too, station registered 40mph while the snow was falling.

No accumulation. And no diurnal temp cycle either..should drop into the low/mid 20s tonight and tomorrow night.

[Mr Marine Layer]

No more dewpoints in the 70s for a while.

[Phil]

No more dewpoints in the 70s for a while.

Knock on wood.

[Phil]

[OKwx2k4]

That would be a great warning to be in!

Incredible to see that this time of year.

[Andie]

Low of 21* this morning. Clear and sunny now. We had a tiny amt. of sleet, but the sleet and snow went to central and south Texas. A real treat for them. Hill Country is gorgeous in the snow.

Looking forward to whether North Texas will see any action on the Thanksgivng break.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Over 200 record lows with that wave. Phill laughed when I said, "epic cold."

You see what I go through folks....

[Phil]

Dulles dropped to 17*F with that last cold shot. Not bad.

Hit 21*F here. Though I suppose if I relocated my temp/humidity sensor to a better location it might have been closer to 19*F..it’s currently on my porch roof under a pine tree which is pretty sh*tty/not recommended.

[Wxmidatlantic]

November 12th. 21/2 miles in S- for about 15 minutes. Precip lighten up and turned to L-.

Winds gusted to 30 mph. It was a great frontal passage. Great to see the snow fly...

[Wxmidatlantic]

Winds gusting to 40 mph in Norfolk. An an an old navy weather man.
..

[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like a zonal flow for a while. Hints of a Rocky Mountain trof 180_240 hrs. Could be in response to mid level cooling. Midwest and High Plains look primed for winter storm. Great Snowpack developing eastern Canada. Great trend for when the rubberband snaps back.

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[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like a zonal flow for a while. Hints of a Rocky Mountain trof 180_240 hrs. Could be in response to mid level cooling. Midwest and High Plains look primed for winter storm. Great Snowpack developing eastern Canada. Great trend for when the rubberband snaps back.

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[Wxmidatlantic]

Tried to get US Air Force snow depth but it was unavailable. NOAA snow cover illistrates Snowpack. It's allmost primetime folks. 34 days to the Winter Solstice! Sorry I get off the chain folks, it happens every Spring. I live for "primetime."

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[Wxmidatlantic]

"Amarillo by Morning"

[Wxmidatlantic]

48 hour wave takes a dive. Rain and 36F in West Baltimore. I had to change a tire in that weather in West Virginia. Cold.

Mid range is now suspect. Definitely some, "Smokey Mountain Rain."

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[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like a good NE wind in Greenville/Spartanburg. Looks like a bonified South Carolina low. 12Z NAM a little further  SE of BWI. NWS still clinging to warmer solution. Tight gradeant but I think BWI will fall below 40.

 

A good pattern.

 

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[Wxmidatlantic]

Nimbostratus moving in. Hot Springs Va. 33F now. Interesting....

 

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[Wxmidatlantic]

CAD seems to be the pattern. We will see...

 

 

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[Wxmidatlantic]

Temp now at 32F at Hot Srrings Va. 

 

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[Wxmidatlantic]

NWS forecast 48F at BWI. 43F at 17Z.  Still 32F at Hot Srrings. Temps continue to fall in Western North Carolina.

 

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.

 

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

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43 F at BW.?.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Max heating  

 

43 F at BWI....

 

 

 

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

John Anderson,.

 

"simonal wind.....n.??

[Wxmidatlantic]

I could have missed the pain, but I would have missed  the dance....

[Wxmidatlantic]

Remember when, Allen Jackson.....

[Wxmidatlantic]

Heavy snow in hot springs...

[Phil]

Looks like some cold weather possible in early December..some flakes/mix possible too. Could see temps in the low teens/upper single digits with a hard NW wind if the colder solutions pan out.

[Phil]

Some more rain tonight in the meantime. Maybe 0.5”-0.8” followed by a breezy day tomorrow..gusts 35-40mph off the mountains as cold/dry air is advected under/just ahead of pressure rises at the peak of the diurnal cycle.

FWIW, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving could be really gnarly pending the evolution of that system as it ejects out of the Rockies. Given the -NAO in tandem with the Bermuda High and the depth of that trough over the Rockies..my hunch is there’s gonna be some tight a** pressure gradients with this one. A very anomalous, “combative” situation in the atmosphere.

[Phil]

Wind is blowing harder than I expected this morning, funneling right through the Cabin John Creek Valley. Topping 40mph as of 9AM.

[Phil]

Wednesday evening/overnight looks like solid wind advisory criteria along/west of the Fall Line at least. Little precip to stabilize the boundary layer during the day then a heavy pressure surge/CAA regime initiates at sundown +/- 1hr with a non saturated profile in place.

Thanksgiving travelers might be in for some white knuckle driving.

[Phil]

Some intense wind fields being depicted on the HRRR/NAM/GFS for late tonight and tomorrow. The 06z ECMWF was less ridiculous but still has ~ 60kts overhead @ 850mb by 10-11z. If the 12z run bumps up to 65-70kts, LWX would pull the trigger for the I-95 corridor, I’d think.

Pressure rises/dry advection occurs overnight behind the cold front, which should cross the I-95 corridor around 00z +/- 1hr.

More of a westerly component than a NWerly one initially which might keep the best mixing along/north of a line from Leesburg to Dulles to DCA. But I’m not 100% sure on this.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Second Winter Storm digs SE 84 to 120 hrs. Transfer and secondary development off DELMARVA seems likely.

There may be a few pingers or wet snow to herald in the precip shield Saturday or 0Z Sunday. Thermal profiles need to be monitored.

Keep in mind we have a neutral SPO. The hammer drops late.

[Wxmidatlantic]

More importantly is the the pressure combined with thermal gradient of the current storm in the Great Lakes. This could produce wind gust of 45-50 mph above 500 ft in Maryland.

Back home we called this a wind storm. I always hated them....

[Phil]

Roaring like a freight train. Woke us up and our guests are awake too, lol.

Looks like 53mph is the peak gust so far on the rooftop anemometer. Secondary pulse likely after sunrise.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Interesting storm. Some front side mix. BWI Mets have abandoned. The warm guy must have been on the night shift. The back side is more interesting now with a band of rain or snow digging down. NAM and EURO most aggressive. CMC and GFS coming around.

 

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[Wxmidatlantic]

The noise you hear is from  a lost love. I wish I could  stop it, but I can't.,..'

[Wxmidatlantic]

Alen Jackson,, remember when.

 

.

 

 

 

 

..

[Wxmidatlantic]

NAM is dripping the hammer.

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[Wxmidatlantic]

Crosby Stills and Nash. Southern Cross...

[Wxmidatlantic]

C!lit Black. A better Man .

[Wxmidatlantic]

Willy  Nelson " You were always on my mind*....

[Wxmidatlantic]

I could have told you Vincent . This world was never ment  for those as beautiful as you.

 

 

Starry starry night,..,

[Wxmidatlantic]

Blackhawk

I can't see a single storm cloud in the sky but I sure can smell the rain.

[Phil]

Some pics and screen grabs during/following the windstorm on Wed night/Thurs.

Saw some trees topped and mailbox casualties while walking about the following morning:




Rough night at Petersburg, Dolly Sods, and MRB.

[Phil]

Crisp morning. Dropped to 23.2*F here. Dulles to 19*F.

Looks like 30*F at the DCA hotbox.

[Phil]

Fog and rain, 46*F. Sleepy weather.

[Phil]

Had 1/2” of slush Wednesday morning with the anafrontal system. Often times those fail completely here so was nice to get a taste of winter, at least.

In the meantime, crappy weather for these last few days. Cold 35-40 degree rain and thick fog continues but NW winds are finally beginning. Should scour this crap out as the low departs to the north.