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1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

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#1
Tom

Posted 08 January 2019 - 04:32 AM

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It seems like its been ages, but models are now converging on a snowstorm developing late this week into the weekend for parts of our southern sub.  I know we don't have many members to our south, but I feel it is worthy of a storm thread for those who want to participate.  

 

Let's discuss....

 

Overnight 00z GEFS are a bit better for even those near the KC region, but I think Clinton is sitting pretty with this one and those in C IL/IN.  Those farther north are riding the northern fringe across IA into N IL/S MI.  Still some time for adjustments N/S and if there will be any Lehs off of Lake Michigan for those near the western shores.  


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#2
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:02 AM

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Excited for this system, hope temps trend just a little bit colder.  I'm going to put in a special request for ensemble #1.


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#3
Tom

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:06 AM

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00z Ukie with a sharp gradient to the north and juicy for the S MW...


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#4
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:13 AM

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00z Ukie with a sharp gradient to the north and juicy for the S MW...

If the Ukie is all snow, it puts me in the heavy band south of KC.  I turned down tickets to the Chiefs game Saturday I think I will take the game in from home lol.


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#5
james1976

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:18 AM

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How many systems have missed me to the south this year? Geez
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#6
Tom

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:19 AM

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If the Ukie is all snow, it puts me in the heavy band south of KC.  I turned down tickets to the Chiefs game Saturday I think I will take the game in from home lol.

Prob a good idea sitting on your comfy couch watching the game on TV and seeing the snow falling outside.  Much better experience IMO.


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#7
jaster220

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:35 AM

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Hoping for an unlikely north trend with this storm. Otherwise, it's congrats Clinton  ;)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#8
Grizzcoat

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:37 AM

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How many systems have missed me to the south this year? Geez

A LOT!!!   If it's to the N -- it's too warm and rain even with 540-534 thickness overhead. If it's to the S- the 540 thickness is well S but it still snows where it shoud'nt-- take a look at this MO event and the 1000-500MB thicknesses -- it makes no sense but it does this winter.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#9
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:55 AM

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A LOT!!!   If it's to the N -- it's too warm and rain even with 540-534 thickness overhead. If it's to the S- the 540 thickness is well S but it still snows where it shoud'nt-- take a look at this MO event and the 1000-500MB thicknesses -- it makes no sense but it does this winter.

You are right I have never seen so many storms where it snows south of the 540 thickness line, it makes me a little nervous about this system.



#10
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:58 AM

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Hoping for an unlikely north trend with this storm. Otherwise, it's congrats Clinton  ;)

Man I wish we could all get in on this, but like Tom has been saying, there is some brutally cold air showing up later this month and into Feb.  I'm thinking it has to snow up there.



#11
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 06:43 AM

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Feels good to have the NAM on my side.  The NAM is also further west which may be a good sign for SE Iowa and Illinois.

 

https://www.tropical...019010812&fh=81



#12
Niko

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:02 AM

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Plenty of time for changes. All depends on the confluence to the north. Will be keeping an close eye on it. Cold air at that time will be locked in place, so this will be a solid snowstorm (no mixing). Whoever gets hit, will receive some good snows.


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#13
bud2380

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:48 AM

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12z GFS coming back in a little further north through 87 hours from the 06z run.  


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#14
bud2380

Posted 08 January 2019 - 08:02 AM

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I don't think we're going to see that nice shift north that many of us would like, but we may squeak out an inch or 2.  The highest single snow event I've had this year has been 1".  I think I'm sitting at around 2.5" for the season and we haven't had any accumulating snow since the end of November I don't think.  I cannot recall any accumulations in December, but it's possible I'm forgetting an event that dropped a 1/2". 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#15
Grizzcoat

Posted 08 January 2019 - 08:09 AM

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Attached File  USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_102.gif   40.86KB   1 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#16
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 08:24 AM

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I don't think we're going to see that nice shift north that many of us would like, but we may squeak out an inch or 2.  The highest single snow event I've had this year has been 1".  I think I'm sitting at around 2.5" for the season and we haven't had any accumulating snow since the end of November I don't think.  I cannot recall any accumulations in December, but it's possible I'm forgetting an event that dropped a 1/2". 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

CMC trending north and stronger as well.

https://www.tropical...19010812&fh=132



#17
Tom

Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:53 AM

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On my phone, the 12z Euro showing a bit more snow for SE IA peeps and showing a couple inches or so. MO still looks great into C IL. Maybe 1-2” for N IL.
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#18
Hawkeye

Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

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Attached File  us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010812_132_5660_323.png   171.51KB   2 downloads

Attached File  us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019010812_132_5703_323.png   187.2KB   1 downloads


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#19
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 11:11 AM

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Thanks for the update!



#20
Illinois_WX

Posted 08 January 2019 - 11:11 AM

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This is the weirdest winter ever lol what even. No snow in Minnesota, in January, but Northern Arkansas is about to get buried. Makes sense.
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'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 


#21
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 12:57 PM

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The NAM tending better for Iowa and Illinois.

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png


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#22
jzuzphreek

Posted 08 January 2019 - 01:23 PM

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I'm really excited about the potential for this storm, but trying to not get my hopes up as I'm in St. Joseph, MO, right at the western edge of where all the good stuff seems forecast to begin. We'll see. I'd love to be able to spend a snowy weekend watching the Chiefs with the in-laws, then cheering on my Saints on Sunday! Who Dat! 


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#23
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 January 2019 - 01:36 PM

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I'd be more invested in this if it were to happen during the day. A 1" snowfall at night means nothing. If it slowed down or moved North that'd be nice though.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#24
Niko

Posted 08 January 2019 - 01:55 PM

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Still time for adjustments w this one. As for now, it is a miss for SMI, but that could change.



#25
Niko

Posted 08 January 2019 - 02:00 PM

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This is the weirdest winter ever lol what even. No snow in Minnesota, in January, but Northern Arkansas is about to get buried. Makes sense.

Tell me about it....... :lol: :rolleyes:



#26
Hawkeye

Posted 08 January 2019 - 04:05 PM

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I'd be more invested in this if it were you happen during the day. A 1" snowfall at night means nothing. If it slowed down or moved North that'd be nice though.

 

Exactly.  It currently looks like midnight to 6am here.  What's the point?


season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#27
jaster220

Posted 08 January 2019 - 05:33 PM

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Exactly.  It currently looks like midnight to 6am here.  What's the point?

 

We had that surprise 1" on the night of 12-29. It was nice to wake up to snow covered ground even if it lasted 1 day.

 

LOL that's all I got for a reason..


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#28
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 06:38 PM

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00z NAM about 75 miles further north this run.



#29
jaster220

Posted 08 January 2019 - 06:58 PM

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Yep, NAM's trying to make a real storm outta this. Too early to get excited tho since it's done this with other systems this season only to come back to reality at game time. I'd like to see it regain the skill it had early on. Guess we'll see. More fun than it going dud


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#30
jaster220

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:00 PM

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why not? been so slow..

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#31
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:01 PM

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This run of the NAM looking more like the Nov 25th version without the wind and fits the LRC.  I think the NAM is on the right track, as it has the storm pulling through my area and heading toward Chicago.



#32
badgerwx

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:02 PM

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Any chance SW Wisco gets any love out of this?

#33
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:05 PM

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Any chance SW Wisco gets any love out of this?


You and I are in the same boat with this one. We need a shift about 50 miles North if we want anything plowable out of this.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#34
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:06 PM

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Any chance SW Wisco gets any love out of this?

Going to be on the edge.  I just don't think it will go any further north than Chicago.  



#35
Tony

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:10 PM

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Nam is so close to goimg neg tilt on that run. Tomorrow could be interesting to see if this thing actually amps even more
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#36
jaster220

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:14 PM

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This run of the NAM looking more like the Nov 25th version without the wind and fits the LRC.  I think the NAM is on the right track, as it has the storm pulling through my area and heading toward Chicago.

 

Hoping that it's actually the first to catch onto a trend vs the first to blow smoke. Wasn't somebody on here from KC told to eat crow cuz said storm wasn't happening? LOLz if he ends up feeding the crow to others.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#37
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 07:28 PM

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Hoping that it's actually the first to catch onto a trend vs the first to blow smoke. Wasn't somebody on here from KC told to eat crow cuz said storm wasn't happening? LOLz if he ends up feeding the crow to others.

LOL I do remember that!



#38
Clinton

Posted 08 January 2019 - 08:02 PM

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CMC spreading the wealth a little bit, and gives me almost a foot of snow.

 

gem_asnow_ncus_20.png


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#39
Grizzcoat

Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:33 PM

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00Z Euro is N with more precip. Pretty in line with UKMET though it seems the UKIE is a tad S,  but maybe someone can post those maps in the morning.  Warning Snow as far N as very near I-80 in SE IA.  GDR??  Crushes St Louis and points E. Posters in E. NE, Chicago and S.MI do better than previous runs.   This is getting interesting but seems too far N IMO. Attached File  ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png   55.54KB   1 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#40
james1976

Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:55 PM

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00Z Euro is N with more precip. Pretty in line with UKMET though it seems the UKIE is a tad S,  but maybe someone can post those maps in the morning.  Warning Snow as far N as very near I-80 in SE IA.  GDR??  Crushes St Louis and points E. Posters in E. NE, Chicago and S.MI do better than previous runs.   This is getting interesting but seems too far N IMO. attachicon.gifecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

Its the King so its hard to fight it but yeah idk if I buy it. It's the furthest north but you never know. It gives me a white backyard and that would be amazing after 6 weeks of little to nothing.


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#41
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:39 AM

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06Z NAM fwiw-Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif   54.04KB   2 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#42
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 12:48 AM

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Fwiw- I believe Instant Weather Maps (IWXM) snow maps are far more accurate than those on TT or PW. IWXM redid their snow algorithms this past DEC and even beforehand, they have seemed over the years to be more accurate even though IWXM claims they used to use the Kuchera. - hence- the differences you see. You can read about the changes here ---  

 

https://twitter.com/IWXM


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#43
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:13 AM

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DMX with one of their better AFD's this morning. Imagine that. Will not post the entire AFD, but they mention better phasing and NW trend.

 

By Friday morning a 500 mb trough will be moving slowly eastward
off the Rockies, and subsequently this trough will progress across
the central U.S. with its axis crossing Iowa around Saturday. It
appears several shortwave impulses will initially move through and
into the larger trough, slowly phasing into a more consolidated
system just after it passes our area, in the latter half of the
weekend. However, these solutions have changed since last night
and the phasing is a bit better/faster than it had been.

 

With the somewhat
better phasing of the 500 mb trough in recent model solutions, it
appears more likely that we will see fairly significant moisture
advection into this region, and that it will curl a bit further
northwestward compared to previous solutions.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#44
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:20 AM

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From DVN AFD-

 

Friday night and Saturday: Models similar in depicting low pressure
developing in eastern TX and then tracking to northern MS, with an
inverted trof extending northward to eastern IA. Isentropic
lift/upglide in this cold air on se winds into the cold air should
allow snow to develop over much of the cwa Friday evening,
continuing overnight and into Saturday. Latest model runs are coming
in wetter and also offering more dynamics as a h5 low deepens. Gulf
moisture will also continue to be pushed northward and forecast
soundings indicate moisture/forcing in the dendritic growth zone.
The wet bulb zero height is also below 0c so much of this event will
be in the form of snow, at times moderate to possibly locally heavy.
This is now looking to be at least a solid advisory criteria
snowfall in the 1-4 inch range, possibly higher in our far southern
counties. With the inverted trof in our area at least the winds will
be rather light. While it is too soon for any headlines,
weekend travelers should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#45
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:26 AM

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LOT with a great write up. one of the best I've read in a long time--

 

Fairly complex set-up looks to bring accumulating snow to most, if
not all, of the CWA. Longwave trough currently digging south into
the Great Lakes and new England region will begin to lift out
Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, a not terribly strong, but full
latitude trough extending from northern Mexico north into Canada
with both northern and southern stream shortwave components is
progged to move bodily eastward into the Great Plains Friday. To
varying degrees, guidance is decent agreement in consolidating
this wave into a more coherent system across the central and/or
southern Plains into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
region Friday night into Saturday.

The forecast track of the surface low and 500mb vort max would
generally result in minimal threat of accumulating snow as far
north as northern IL, with even our southern CWA being out of
range of accumulating snow with a typical system depending on the
model forecast track you look at. The latest ECMWF and NAM are
farther north with the 500mb vort max, while the GFS and GEM are
farther south. All the models maintain weak troughiness and some
degree of interaction between this system and the departing
northern stream long wave trough that will be exiting the region.

What appears to be driving the precipitation over northern IL that
the majority of models are producing looks to be driven more by
jet dynamics. Models depict building heights with some downstream
ridging in advance of the trough moving out of the Plains. These
building heights result in a tightening of the geopotential height
gradient on the southern flank of the departing long wave trough,
resulting in a strengthening upper level jet (130kt+ at 250mb)
over the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. Strengthening
upper level divergence in the entrance region of this jet appears
to be one of the driving factors in the QPF the models produce in
our area.

While the exact evolution of the developing trough is low
confidence, the idea of downstream ridging aiding in the
development of a jet streak over the region seems pretty likely.
The categorical PoP from the blended model solution look right on
target. Overall the large scale forcing over the area doesn't look
terribly impressive and precipitation will initially be battling
dry low levels that will require top-down saturation. On the
synoptic scale, really would appear that we are in for a about a
12 hour period of modest forcing, likely sufficient to support
mostly light snow over the area. Currently looks like around an
inch over snow (+/- 0.5") is likely north of I-80.

Farther south across the southern CWA the forecast confidence is
lower. The potential closer proximity to a farther north tracking
system does raise the specter of potentially more meaningful
snowfall totals (like depicted in the 00Z NAM and EC). For now,
at this distance with models still struggling to resolve the
complex interaction of features, so no reason to deviate from the
blended model solution which would favor 1-3" of snow south.
However, it is strongly advisable that everyone in area keep an
eye on later forecasts as non-trivial changes in model forecasts
could still occur and result in changes (up or down) in these very
preliminary forecast snowfall amounts.

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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#46
Grizzcoat

Posted 09 January 2019 - 01:52 AM

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06Z GFS = weak sauce and S. Not even worth a map upload. Hoping that it's bad like the article I posted yday says it is.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#47
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 04:04 AM

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Last night's Euro certainly spreads the wealth farther west and north this run and would even make NE peeps happy.  The 00z EPS snow mean has also shifted NW and N quite a bit over the last 3 runs. This is getting pretty interesting for many folks on here and hope trends continue.

 

SREF's through Noon on Saturday....FWIW, the snow shield looks very similar to the 00z Euro from last night and spread the wealth farther west and north.

 

sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif


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#48
Clinton

Posted 09 January 2019 - 04:23 AM

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Hope the trend continues, I'm starting to feel confident about a 5 in or more snow and in my area thats a very good storm.


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#49
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 04:28 AM

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Took a glance at the EPS members and many of them were decent hits for members in the KC area, SE NE, IA, IL, IN and even into S MI.  Even the last couple runs off the FV3 have trended farther NW and N with the snow shield.

 

00z FV3...

 

fv3p_asnow_us_20.png


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#50
Tom

Posted 09 January 2019 - 04:31 AM

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Hope the trend continues, I'm starting to feel confident about a 5 in or more snow and in my area thats a very good storm.

IMHO, I think your in a good spot to see a Winter Storm Warning and your 2nd 5"+ storm of the season.  There are some big hits for MO off the EPS members and GEFS ensembles.  The trend this season has been for juicier systems and we know how this system has trended over the past few days from "zilch" to now possibly a widespread snow system.  I might have to change the Title and include the Plains peeps!


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