Tom Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 It seems like its been ages, but models are now converging on a snowstorm developing late this week into the weekend for parts of our southern sub. I know we don't have many members to our south, but I feel it is worthy of a storm thread for those who want to participate. Let's discuss.... Overnight 00z GEFS are a bit better for even those near the KC region, but I think Clinton is sitting pretty with this one and those in C IL/IN. Those farther north are riding the northern fringe across IA into N IL/S MI. Still some time for adjustments N/S and if there will be any Lehs off of Lake Michigan for those near the western shores. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Excited for this system, hope temps trend just a little bit colder. I'm going to put in a special request for ensemble #1. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 00z Ukie with a sharp gradient to the north and juicy for the S MW... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 00z Ukie with a sharp gradient to the north and juicy for the S MW...If the Ukie is all snow, it puts me in the heavy band south of KC. I turned down tickets to the Chiefs game Saturday I think I will take the game in from home lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 How many systems have missed me to the south this year? Geez 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 If the Ukie is all snow, it puts me in the heavy band south of KC. I turned down tickets to the Chiefs game Saturday I think I will take the game in from home lol.Prob a good idea sitting on your comfy couch watching the game on TV and seeing the snow falling outside. Much better experience IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Hoping for an unlikely north trend with this storm. Otherwise, it's congrats Clinton 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 How many systems have missed me to the south this year? GeezA LOT!!! If it's to the N -- it's too warm and rain even with 540-534 thickness overhead. If it's to the S- the 540 thickness is well S but it still snows where it shoud'nt-- take a look at this MO event and the 1000-500MB thicknesses -- it makes no sense but it does this winter. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 A LOT!!! If it's to the N -- it's too warm and rain even with 540-534 thickness overhead. If it's to the S- the 540 thickness is well S but it still snows where it shoud'nt-- take a look at this MO event and the 1000-500MB thicknesses -- it makes no sense but it does this winter.You are right I have never seen so many storms where it snows south of the 540 thickness line, it makes me a little nervous about this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Hoping for an unlikely north trend with this storm. Otherwise, it's congrats Clinton Man I wish we could all get in on this, but like Tom has been saying, there is some brutally cold air showing up later this month and into Feb. I'm thinking it has to snow up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Feels good to have the NAM on my side. The NAM is also further west which may be a good sign for SE Iowa and Illinois. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010812&fh=81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Plenty of time for changes. All depends on the confluence to the north. Will be keeping an close eye on it. Cold air at that time will be locked in place, so this will be a solid snowstorm (no mixing). Whoever gets hit, will receive some good snows. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z GFS coming back in a little further north through 87 hours from the 06z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 I don't think we're going to see that nice shift north that many of us would like, but we may squeak out an inch or 2. The highest single snow event I've had this year has been 1". I think I'm sitting at around 2.5" for the season and we haven't had any accumulating snow since the end of November I don't think. I cannot recall any accumulations in December, but it's possible I'm forgetting an event that dropped a 1/2". http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010812/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 I don't think we're going to see that nice shift north that many of us would like, but we may squeak out an inch or 2. The highest single snow event I've had this year has been 1". I think I'm sitting at around 2.5" for the season and we haven't had any accumulating snow since the end of November I don't think. I cannot recall any accumulations in December, but it's possible I'm forgetting an event that dropped a 1/2". http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010812/108/snku_acc.us_mw.pngCMC trending north and stronger as well.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=scus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019010812&fh=132 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 On my phone, the 12z Euro showing a bit more snow for SE IA peeps and showing a couple inches or so. MO still looks great into C IL. Maybe 1-2” for N IL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Thanks for the update! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is the weirdest winter ever lol what even. No snow in Minnesota, in January, but Northern Arkansas is about to get buried. Makes sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 The NAM tending better for Iowa and Illinois. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jzuzphreek Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 I'm really excited about the potential for this storm, but trying to not get my hopes up as I'm in St. Joseph, MO, right at the western edge of where all the good stuff seems forecast to begin. We'll see. I'd love to be able to spend a snowy weekend watching the Chiefs with the in-laws, then cheering on my Saints on Sunday! Who Dat! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 I'd be more invested in this if it were to happen during the day. A 1" snowfall at night means nothing. If it slowed down or moved North that'd be nice though. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 Still time for adjustments w this one. As for now, it is a miss for SMI, but that could change. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2019 Report Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is the weirdest winter ever lol what even. No snow in Minnesota, in January, but Northern Arkansas is about to get buried. Makes sense.Tell me about it....... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 I'd be more invested in this if it were you happen during the day. A 1" snowfall at night means nothing. If it slowed down or moved North that'd be nice though. Exactly. It currently looks like midnight to 6am here. What's the point? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Exactly. It currently looks like midnight to 6am here. What's the point? We had that surprise 1" on the night of 12-29. It was nice to wake up to snow covered ground even if it lasted 1 day. LOL that's all I got for a reason.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 00z NAM about 75 miles further north this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yep, NAM's trying to make a real storm outta this. Too early to get excited tho since it's done this with other systems this season only to come back to reality at game time. I'd like to see it regain the skill it had early on. Guess we'll see. More fun than it going dud 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 why not? been so slow.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 This run of the NAM looking more like the Nov 25th version without the wind and fits the LRC. I think the NAM is on the right track, as it has the storm pulling through my area and heading toward Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Any chance SW Wisco gets any love out of this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Any chance SW Wisco gets any love out of this?You and I are in the same boat with this one. We need a shift about 50 miles North if we want anything plowable out of this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Any chance SW Wisco gets any love out of this?Going to be on the edge. I just don't think it will go any further north than Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Nam is so close to goimg neg tilt on that run. Tomorrow could be interesting to see if this thing actually amps even more 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 This run of the NAM looking more like the Nov 25th version without the wind and fits the LRC. I think the NAM is on the right track, as it has the storm pulling through my area and heading toward Chicago. Hoping that it's actually the first to catch onto a trend vs the first to blow smoke. Wasn't somebody on here from KC told to eat crow cuz said storm wasn't happening? LOLz if he ends up feeding the crow to others. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Hoping that it's actually the first to catch onto a trend vs the first to blow smoke. Wasn't somebody on here from KC told to eat crow cuz said storm wasn't happening? LOLz if he ends up feeding the crow to others.LOL I do remember that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 CMC spreading the wealth a little bit, and gives me almost a foot of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 00Z Euro is N with more precip. Pretty in line with UKMET though it seems the UKIE is a tad S, but maybe someone can post those maps in the morning. Warning Snow as far N as very near I-80 in SE IA. GDR?? Crushes St Louis and points E. Posters in E. NE, Chicago and S.MI do better than previous runs. This is getting interesting but seems too far N IMO. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 00Z Euro is N with more precip. Pretty in line with UKMET though it seems the UKIE is a tad S, but maybe someone can post those maps in the morning. Warning Snow as far N as very near I-80 in SE IA. GDR?? Crushes St Louis and points E. Posters in E. NE, Chicago and S.MI do better than previous runs. This is getting interesting but seems too far N IMO. ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.pngIts the King so its hard to fight it but yeah idk if I buy it. It's the furthest north but you never know. It gives me a white backyard and that would be amazing after 6 weeks of little to nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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