1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

[jcwxguy]

Just started flurrying in Papillion

here in Gretna as well

Surprised nebraska city isn't in a wsw. Here is point forecast

tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog after 9pm. Low around 30. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow, mainly before 4pm. Areas of fog between 2pm and 3pm. Areas of freezing fog between 10am and 2pm. High near 32. North wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[Minny_Weather]

Dry air is mutilating returns here once again.

 

Any accumulations out there? I'm at the Stars game.

[Stormhunter87]

Dry air is mutilating returns here once again.

Any accumulations out there? I'm at the Stars game.

Roads and sidewalks no, grass yes now. Coming down decently now.

[Grizzcoat]

Dry air finally overcome here just WSW of DSM. Radar really blew up in last 30 minutes and is actually snowing OK-- especially when it wasn't supposed to start until after 10PM. I just hope the dry air doesn't form a coup for the same deal later on.

[DSM WeatherNut]

Started snowing in Des Moines about 15 mintues ago.  Looked like it was going to take much longer to saturate because it pushed back south.

[Bryan1117]

Lightly snowing in southwest Omaha now. Went out in the hot tub to relax and have an adult beverage and it started to snow here. Looks like the snow has won out over the dry air, at least for the time being.

 

On a side note, going out in a hot tub on a cold and snowy night is a little slice of heaven to me.

[jaster220]

KSTL has a legit shot at a top-5 storm for those interested. I guess Columbia as well.

 

ISSUED AT 334 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019  
  
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EVENTS (INCHES) AT KSTL AND KCOU:  
ENDING DATE IN PARENTHESES.  
  
          KSTL                    KCOU  
 1. 15.6 (1912-02-21)  1. 19.7 (1995-01-20)   
 2. 13.9 (1982-02-01)  2. 18.0 (2011-02-03)   
 3. 13.5 (1910-02-17)  3. 15.3 (2006-12-01)   
T4. 13.0 (1914-02-13)  4. 13.9 (1900-03-01)   
    13.0 (1978-01-17)  5. 13.1 (1993-02-25)

[jaster220]

I'm sorry, but these 50 shades of blue that the NWS decided to go with is just silly imho. Get a box of Crayola's and note how many colors there are guys. Just needlessly hard on my sore eyes. This IS a half-rant btw

 

[Tom]

It looks like the Euro may have been onto something as latest guidance is suggesting the accumulating band of snow to make it up into Chicago.  I'd be happy with 2" riding the northern fringe....might squeak out 2-3"???  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011200/033/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019011200/036/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

[Grizzcoat]

Started snowing in Des Moines about 15 mintues ago.  Looked like it was going to take much longer to saturate because it pushed back south.

Welome aboard Dsm_Weather_Nut !!!

[Iowawx]

I will gladly take 2 inches here, but I am very disappointed to not be in the bullseye of this storm across Northern Missouri and Central Illinois.

[Stormhunter87]

Appears dry air is fizzling the band on radar but still coming down good here. Roads and sidewalks are starting to get covered.

[Jaycee]

Talk about being shafted every storm! I’m on the north side of Chicago, almost every storm here has went west, north, and now south. Hope this thing nudges north. I haven’t seen anything here this year

[Niko]

Yep. We finally get a cold HP to the north and it positions poorly. We get to join MN & WI peeps on the side-lines unless there's a drastic shift when the wave gets onshore and into the ROAB network.

 

But. not. holding. breath. on. that. 

 

Meanwhile, gonna ride my 1" line like there's no tomorrow 

[bud2380]

Radar starting to fill in and lift north near Iowa city

[bud2380]

GFS with 5” for my area.

[Minny_Weather]

Not a fan of radar trends right now. More and more returns being castrated. Right now, we're stuck with pixie dust. 32.7*F and about 1.5" OTG.

[snowstorm83]

Not a fan of radar trends right now. More and more returns being castrated. Right now, we're stuck with pixie dust. 32.7*F and about 1.5" OTG.

 

I think were doing OK at this point, it's only 10. I'm just happy we're getting snow and Norfolk isn't. 

[Minny_Weather]

I think were doing OK at this point, it's only 10. I'm just happy we're getting snow and Norfolk isn't. 

Thank you for reminding me of that. I am way happier now.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Nice maps and hope you score amigo! GEM/RGEM literally the only models giving me more than mood flakes. Per my grid I have a 50-50 shot at a dusting. Interesting on KSTL historic storm list - whoops! there it is! 1-17-78. You're gonna score again my man. Nice work

[Minny_Weather]

Just got home from the Stars game. Roads were slush, but sidewalks and parking lots were snow covered. I almost slid into a parked car in my complex's parking lot.

[Clinton]

5 in on the ground. I would be thrilled if I can land 5 more,double digit snow falls don't happen down here every year. Hope everyone gets what they are expecting or more.

[jaster220]

5 in on the ground. I would be thrilled if I can land 5 more,double digit snow falls don't happen down here every year. Hope everyone gets what they are expecting or more.

 

Congrats! Pulling for ya

[Stormhunter87]

Dry air is really working to kill the northern edge.

[gabel23]

I just went out and checked my snow board and things are a surprise around here.....I officially have 0.0" of snow. 

[Niko]

5 in on the ground. I would be thrilled if I can land 5 more,double digit snow falls don't happen down here every year. Hope everyone gets what they are expecting or more.

Wow....hope you can beat that 12" mark as that would put ya in the 5th place for most snow in a single storm if I am not mistaken. Not often does your area get a major snowstorm of  12"+ magnitude. Good luck man, hope you break a record.

[NH4NU]

More moderate snow filling nicely now right along and south of I-80

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah coming down moderately now and nice to see it filling in on radar. Have about 2" of concrete here on the far Southeast side of Lincoln.

[Stormhunter87]

More moderate snow filling nicely now right along and south of I-80

Wow yeah that band really developed fast. Love it

[Stormy]

15 minutes ago I was thinking about saying the snow is on my doorstep and about like that it began snowing here. Coming down decent & already have a light coating.

[Stormy]

It looks like the Euro may have been onto something as latest guidance is suggesting the accumulating band of snow to make it up into Chicago. I'd be happy with 2" riding the northern fringe....might squeak out 2-3"???

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011200/033/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019011200/036/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

It's kinda neat how this & most models show snow making it the furthest north in my part of Ia, & the Midwest for that matter!

[Hawkeye]

I just got back onto my computer.  I'm really liking the model trend this evening.  The HRRR was robust with the dry feed earlier today, but it has dropped that and has more than doubled my precip.  All models except the Canadian have gone wetter tonight.  Instead of 0.20" average, now it's more like 0.35".

 

It's still going to take a few more hours for the snow to crawl up to Cedar Rapids, so I'm not staying up for it.  Models suggest the best rates will be after sunrise.

[jcwxguy]

Latest hrrr

[Stormy]

Started snowing in Des Moines about 15 mintues ago.  Looked like it was going to take much longer to saturate because it pushed back south.

Welcome to the board! Always nice to see more Ia. posters!

[Stormhunter87]

I just got back onto my computer.  I'm really liking the model trend this evening.  The HRRR was robust with the dry feed earlier today, but it has dropped that and has more than doubled my precip.  All models except the Canadian have gone wetter tonight.  Instead of 0.20" average, now it's more like 0.35".

 

It's still going to take a few more hours for the snow to crawl up to Cedar Rapids.

Definitely agree after hrrr and radar started trending down, but now it looks alot better here. Hrrr brought us back to 6 just south of Omaha.

[hlcater]

I just got back onto my computer.  I'm really liking the model trend this evening.  The HRRR was robust with the dry feed earlier today, but it has dropped that and has more than doubled my precip.  All models except the Canadian have gone wetter tonight.  Instead of 0.20" average, now it's more like 0.35".

 

It's still going to take a few more hours for the snow to crawl up to Cedar Rapids, so I'm not staying up for it.  Models suggest the best rates will be after sunrise.

 

Even then it looks to arrive 2-3 hours ahead of schedule. Schedule meaning the 12z run of everything.

[hlcater]

Also worthy of noting, despite relatively low returns, there are many stations in southern IA reporting SN+ with under 1 mile vis.

[Minny_Weather]

D**n I'd be pissed if I lived in Falls City. They've been in a donut hole since the onset. They were forecasted to get the highest amounts.

[Hawkeye]

00z euro a touch wetter again.

 

CR: ~0.42"

IC: ~0.58"

 

The snow is expected to continue through 8pm Saturday, quite a bit longer than it had looked a couple days ago.

[DSM WeatherNut]

Latest hrrr

Liking this and it looks like DMX is upping the totals that look more like this.