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1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm


Tom

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That cutoff from N to S is again worrisome. Seems that way this year. At this point I'am just glad to have "cutoff" in my vocab.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GFS is better for SE NE, but nothing like the NAM. I think the NAM is probably too juiced, 00z runs will be interesting. But yeah, I'd much rather be in St. Louis at this point. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Yeah NAM is way too juiced. In addition, I think we'll see the higher snow totals being more consolidated to finer areas as soon as tomorrow's model runs. There's no such thing as "share the wealth" anymore.

 

k, just keep punting your snow over my way. Half of 6+ is waaayyy better than half of nada over mby

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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looks pretty share the wealth to my eyes - nice

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The nam slowed down and has more snow farther west, but around here there's still a sharp north edge.

 

The 3k nam doesn't even get the snow north of I-80 in Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5-8" for Omaha/Lincoln and out towards the Tri Cities. It's gone so north this run that even Norfolk gets 2-3". Also an unfortunate dry slot SW of Lincoln. Have a hard time believing this solution.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Not sure what to think. Nov 26 at this range didn't appear to be happening for SWMI. Iirc, all the models showed the snow failing to make it past NIL. Then, about 48 hrs out, things started improving substantially. Feel like I'm riding in that same boat again. Others elsewhere see possible improvements in the phasing that could help us on the northern fringe so I guess it's a wait and see game. Some models have come north some haven't.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The NAM will come true but Lincoln will get the slot.

 

In all seriousness, 3km isn't as cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs with amounts, but it still shifts it North. Still 48hrs out so certainly nothing could possibly go wrong here.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Also, mark my words on this one: This will not be a share the wealth event. We have seen this time and time again from models. They always show a wide swath of snow until a day or two out, then the swath turns into a narrow band and it ends up with a few happy people and a lot of pissed people. We're already seeing it on the models on this one. Notice how in our neck of the woods here, heavier amounts are consolidated to a thinner band. I have a feeling that look is going to shift East in the next suite.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I’m riding right on the 6” line on the Euro which would be great but I don’t like that cutoff. Reminds me of the late November storm that I missed out on by 5 miles.

Yep- and I believe this is the same cycle event of the LRC from that storm. Extreme sharp cut off. Polk Cty (DSM) Northside had zero flakes- 15 miles South of DSM had 4"- 30 miles South of there had 14"

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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06Z nam quite a bit further S in IA with the snow shield compared to 00Z along with much less QPF.-  Another sharp cut off which is concerning considering the consternation many went through with the late NOV event.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I was excited for this event - but now with the track record C.IA has had this winter I see no reason not to get shafted once again. Not being a downer- just a realist. Nature likes to repeat itself and I see no real change. I expect all models to shift S today. The ICON and 3KM NAM (06Z went even further S) seems to have sniffed this out.  Tight gradient is not good news when your on the wrong side.... Good luck to those elsewhere!!! *** EDIT *** (of course 3 minutes after I wrote the above- the 06Z ICON shifts N)  But at this point I will believe accumulating snowfall only when I see it.

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD344 AM EST Thu Jan 10 2019Valid 12Z Thu Jan 10 2019 - 12Z Sun Jan 13 2019The shifting of the trough from a positive to neutral tilt snowproduces the greatest potential for heavy snow across east centralMO to southern IL, left of the 850 mb circulation track. On thenorth end, a tight QPF gradient in southeast NE, southern IA, andcentral IL with the 00Z 3km NAM and ECMWF farther south than the00Z GFS/UKMET.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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  Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

236 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019   Friday night and Saturday: Models similar in depicting low pressure

developing in eastern TX and then tracking to northern MS, with an

inverted trof extending northward to eastern IA. Isentropic

lift/upglide in this cold air on se winds into the cold air should

allow snow to develop over much of the cwa Friday evening,

continuing overnight and into Saturday. Latest model runs are coming

in wetter and also offering more dynamics as a h5 low deepens. Gulf

moisture will also continue to be pushed northward and forecast

soundings indicate moisture/forcing in the dendritic growth zone.

The wet bulb zero height is also below 0c so much of this event will

be in the form of snow, at times moderate to possibly locally heavy.

As of now looking to be at least a solid advisory criteria snowfall

but will hold off on issuing headlines yet.

 

I will punt to the day shift to allow one more look at the latest

model data. As of now the thinking is total snowfall amounts of

around an inch along Hwy 20, around 3 inches along the I-80

corridor, and around 5 inches in se IA/western IL/ne MO. Of course,

these amounts could change if the system shifts farther north or

south. Weekend travelers should continue to monitor latest

forecasts. Luckily, with the inverted trof in our area at least the

winds will be rather light. I have lowered the superblend

temperatures a couple of degrees with highs on Saturday in the lower

30s, so this will make for snow covered and hazardous roadways.

This is basically a snow event due to the entire column below 0C,

wet bulb zero height below 0C, dewpoints in the 20s to around 30,

and an east wind. Therefore, I have removed the mention of rain on

Saturday. The snow should end from nw to se Saturday night as high

pressure builds into the area from the nw, and the storm system

slides well off to our east.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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  Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

308 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 Thursday night and into Friday morning, our next significant system

will begin ejecting out of the southwestern US and into the southern

Plains. Models are continuing to come into better consensus on

timing and placement of precip. The latest run of the GFS has

shifted further north, more in line with the ECMWF and NAM,

bringing our CWA well into the northwestern edge of the

deformation zone on this system. Light rain/drizzle will begin to

move into the southern half of the CWA early Friday afternoon.

Forecast soundings become increasingly saturated Friday night as

precip changes over to snow and Q-vector convergence is maximized

over southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Given the steady rate of

light snow overnight and into Saturday, due to the continued

northward shift of the system, there appears to be some chance for

heavier snow amounts. Initially, the Garcia method shows the

potential for a maximum of 6" across the southern CWA. However,

warm surface temperatures as well as initial liquid precip type

will likely lower that number. For now snowfall totals look closer

to 1" to 3" southeast of a line from central Butler to central

Harrison counties. Highest amounts will likely be in far southeast

Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Light freezing drizzle could develop on

the backside of the system as it exits the region Saturday

afternoon. However, any ice accumulation should be around 0.01" or

less.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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