Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z NAM is slower and stronger. It is juiced! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 18Z NAM-- again N. NICE!!! But still too much time. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 I think the Euro is onto something..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 That cutoff from N to S is again worrisome. Seems that way this year. At this point I'am just glad to have "cutoff" in my vocab. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 NAM and Euro beginning to come together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Zoomed in http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019010918/084/snku_acc.us_c.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 18Z GFS NOrth- compared to 12Z. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 GFS is better for SE NE, but nothing like the NAM. I think the NAM is probably too juiced, 00z runs will be interesting. But yeah, I'd much rather be in St. Louis at this point. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 18Z GFS NOrth- compared to 12Z.Baby-Stepping it's way towards the other models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2019 Report Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah NAM is way too juiced. In addition, I think we'll see the higher snow totals being more consolidated to finer areas as soon as tomorrow's model runs. There's no such thing as "share the wealth" anymore. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Yeah NAM is way too juiced. In addition, I think we'll see the higher snow totals being more consolidated to finer areas as soon as tomorrow's model runs. There's no such thing as "share the wealth" anymore. k, just keep punting your snow over my way. Half of 6+ is waaayyy better than half of nada over mby Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z Canadian. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z Canadian. 24639A33-CDCA-48E6-9B10-02BD0CBEF8D6.gif looks pretty share the wealth to my eyes - nice 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 0z NAM looks north and is giving me snow in Central Nebraska. What in the world? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Well well well the nam says I should be paying attention. Quiet the development on the north side 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 The nam slowed down and has more snow farther west, but around here there's still a sharp north edge. The 3k nam doesn't even get the snow north of I-80 in Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 5-8" for Omaha/Lincoln and out towards the Tri Cities. It's gone so north this run that even Norfolk gets 2-3". Also an unfortunate dry slot SW of Lincoln. Have a hard time believing this solution. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 ICON still doesn't get the snow up to CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 8AD0036E-4BF5-4742-B880-9B3184F09081.pngIf the NAM were to verify it would add to my good fortune this winter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 WOW. Some good things are happening here folks. Lets do this. 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Go pound sand El nino....another one to the south!!!! Looks like a fun weekend storm though for those that get it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS is going in the right direction... 0.20" up to Omaha and Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z Canadian very similar to the GFS, 0.20" line from Omaha to CR. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Lezak tonight going with 00z NAM, likes how if fits the LRC. Temps will be a factor on how snow ratios go for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Not sure what to think. Nov 26 at this range didn't appear to be happening for SWMI. Iirc, all the models showed the snow failing to make it past NIL. Then, about 48 hrs out, things started improving substantially. Feel like I'm riding in that same boat again. Others elsewhere see possible improvements in the phasing that could help us on the northern fringe so I guess it's a wait and see game. Some models have come north some haven't. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 The NAM will come true but Lincoln will get the slot. In all seriousness, 3km isn't as cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs with amounts, but it still shifts it North. Still 48hrs out so certainly nothing could possibly go wrong here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Also, mark my words on this one: This will not be a share the wealth event. We have seen this time and time again from models. They always show a wide swath of snow until a day or two out, then the swath turns into a narrow band and it ends up with a few happy people and a lot of pissed people. We're already seeing it on the models on this one. Notice how in our neck of the woods here, heavier amounts are consolidated to a thinner band. I have a feeling that look is going to shift East in the next suite. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z UK north and juiced. Cedar Rapids gets 0.30" and Omaha 0.40". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 The ICON and the 3km NAM, name a better duo... 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 wasn't a good run for here. Northern edge of the snow moved South, but there's also a monster dry slot introduced so the band is maybe 50 miles. 1.5" for my balcony, but a**-clenchingly close to no snow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Euro not quite as wet / N as 12Z- but still nice for S.IA. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 PA_000-072_0000.gifWow that is definitely juiced up. Either the models can't figure out this storm or it definitely is going be a nice surprise. Edit: just saw the euro post very interesting. Not as strong here as the nam but it is seeing some development up north. Guess we will see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I’m riding right on the 6” line on the Euro which would be great but I don’t like that cutoff. Reminds me of the late November storm that I missed out on by 5 miles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I’m riding right on the 6” line on the Euro which would be great but I don’t like that cutoff. Reminds me of the late November storm that I missed out on by 5 miles.Yep- and I believe this is the same cycle event of the LRC from that storm. Extreme sharp cut off. Polk Cty (DSM) Northside had zero flakes- 15 miles South of DSM had 4"- 30 miles South of there had 14" 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 06Z nam quite a bit further S in IA with the snow shield compared to 00Z along with much less QPF.- Another sharp cut off which is concerning considering the consternation many went through with the late NOV event. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I was excited for this event - but now with the track record C.IA has had this winter I see no reason not to get shafted once again. Not being a downer- just a realist. Nature likes to repeat itself and I see no real change. I expect all models to shift S today. The ICON and 3KM NAM (06Z went even further S) seems to have sniffed this out. Tight gradient is not good news when your on the wrong side.... Good luck to those elsewhere!!! *** EDIT *** (of course 3 minutes after I wrote the above- the 06Z ICON shifts N) But at this point I will believe accumulating snowfall only when I see it.Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD344 AM EST Thu Jan 10 2019Valid 12Z Thu Jan 10 2019 - 12Z Sun Jan 13 2019The shifting of the trough from a positive to neutral tilt snowproduces the greatest potential for heavy snow across east centralMO to southern IL, left of the 850 mb circulation track. On thenorth end, a tight QPF gradient in southeast NE, southern IA, andcentral IL with the 00Z 3km NAM and ECMWF farther south than the00Z GFS/UKMET. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 236 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 Friday night and Saturday: Models similar in depicting low pressure developing in eastern TX and then tracking to northern MS, with an inverted trof extending northward to eastern IA. Isentropic lift/upglide in this cold air on se winds into the cold air should allow snow to develop over much of the cwa Friday evening, continuing overnight and into Saturday. Latest model runs are coming in wetter and also offering more dynamics as a h5 low deepens. Gulf moisture will also continue to be pushed northward and forecast soundings indicate moisture/forcing in the dendritic growth zone. The wet bulb zero height is also below 0c so much of this event will be in the form of snow, at times moderate to possibly locally heavy. As of now looking to be at least a solid advisory criteria snowfall but will hold off on issuing headlines yet. I will punt to the day shift to allow one more look at the latest model data. As of now the thinking is total snowfall amounts of around an inch along Hwy 20, around 3 inches along the I-80 corridor, and around 5 inches in se IA/western IL/ne MO. Of course, these amounts could change if the system shifts farther north or south. Weekend travelers should continue to monitor latest forecasts. Luckily, with the inverted trof in our area at least the winds will be rather light. I have lowered the superblend temperatures a couple of degrees with highs on Saturday in the lower 30s, so this will make for snow covered and hazardous roadways. This is basically a snow event due to the entire column below 0C, wet bulb zero height below 0C, dewpoints in the 20s to around 30, and an east wind. Therefore, I have removed the mention of rain on Saturday. The snow should end from nw to se Saturday night as high pressure builds into the area from the nw, and the storm system slides well off to our east. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 308 AM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 Thursday night and into Friday morning, our next significant system will begin ejecting out of the southwestern US and into the southern Plains. Models are continuing to come into better consensus on timing and placement of precip. The latest run of the GFS has shifted further north, more in line with the ECMWF and NAM, bringing our CWA well into the northwestern edge of the deformation zone on this system. Light rain/drizzle will begin to move into the southern half of the CWA early Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings become increasingly saturated Friday night as precip changes over to snow and Q-vector convergence is maximized over southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Given the steady rate of light snow overnight and into Saturday, due to the continued northward shift of the system, there appears to be some chance for heavier snow amounts. Initially, the Garcia method shows the potential for a maximum of 6" across the southern CWA. However, warm surface temperatures as well as initial liquid precip type will likely lower that number. For now snowfall totals look closer to 1" to 3" southeast of a line from central Butler to central Harrison counties. Highest amounts will likely be in far southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa. Light freezing drizzle could develop on the backside of the system as it exits the region Saturday afternoon. However, any ice accumulation should be around 0.01" or less. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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