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1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

Euro- 

Tony
Tony

Nam pushes snow line past the border on 12z

Bryan1117
Bryan1117

Lightly snowing in southwest Omaha now. Went out in the hot tub to relax and have an adult beverage and it started to snow here. Looks like the snow has won out over the dry air, at least for the time

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
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FV3 with a great run!

fv3p_asnow_us_13.png

This run showing Atlanta and NW South Carolina getting a pretty good snow. If this were to happen it would shut it down for a couple days. Only reason I mention SC is my son goes to Clemson and while he was home on Christmas break there was no snow to be found and now that he goes back to school he might see snow...crazy.

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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This run showing Atlanta and NW South Carolina getting a pretty good snow. If this were to happen it would shut it down for a couple days. Only reason I mention SC is my son goes to Clemson and while he was home on Christmas break there was no snow to be found and now that he goes back to school he might see snow...crazy.

That's crazy!  I heard The Weather Channel talking about this possibility this morning.  Strange pattern but things will return to normal soon.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Ok if the Nam wins out we are gonna have a lot of surprised people around my area. Nobody is even talking about this storm! @Tom, crazy how the LRC is working to a T my man. Expect another major storm sometime next week as my area got blasted by a storm the week after the Blizzard in Kansas back in November! 

 

This system is NOT the Nov 25-26 bliz. Sorry, but do the math peeps. Take Nov 25 and add 55 days = Jan 18th. Otherwise, happy tracking to everyone! Nice to see excitement for a change across (most of) our sub.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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12z UK, nearly identical to 00z.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Confluence is killing this storm for MI peeps.

 

For those that do get it, enjoy it! ;)

 

Edit: My niece who is in Vanderbilt, University in Tennessee told me this morning that a couple of inches are likely there. Trucks are preparing w salt.

 

Yep. We finally get a cold HP to the north and it positions poorly. We get to join MN & WI peeps on the side-lines unless there's a drastic shift when the wave gets onshore and into the ROAB network.

 

But. not. holding. breath. on. that. 

 

Meanwhile, gonna ride my 1" line like there's no tomorrow  :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted

This system is NOT the Nov 25-26 bliz. Sorry, but do the math peeps. Take Nov 25 and add 55 days = Jan 18th. Otherwise, happy tracking to everyone! Nice to see excitement for a change across (most of) our sub.

Gary stated a few weeks ago that the cycle length is 45 days, so that would actually match up perfectly.

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

Posted
Posted

This run showing Atlanta and NW South Carolina getting a pretty good snow. If this were to happen it would shut it down for a couple days. Only reason I mention SC is my son goes to Clemson and while he was home on Christmas break there was no snow to be found and now that he goes back to school he might see snow...crazy.

Haha no doubt. My brother lives by Raleigh, NC and everything is shut down when they get an inch of snow. He gets a kick out of it.
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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Gary stated a few weeks ago that the cycle length is 45 days, so that would actually match up perfectly.

 

Tom also posted that that estimate seemed quite a bit off. STL didn't get hit by the bliz, but they did score big with the earlier closed low. Don't recall exact dates tho. Same day NYC got smacked unexpectedly with a thump snow. I do remember that. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Man, this happens a lot and it's annoying.  One model will be the most bullish for days while others are weaker/drier.  Then, as we approach the event, the dry models will suddenly become stronger and wetter, but the formerly bullish model goes back the other way and is now the weakest.  This new euro is a bummer, has CR down to 0.20 again.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

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Posted

Man, this happens a lot and it's annoying.  One model will be the most bullish for days while others are weaker/drier.  Then, as we approach the event, the dry models will suddenly become stronger and wetter, but the formerly bullish model goes back the other way and is now the weakest.  This new euro is a bummer, has CR down to 0.20 again.

 

I think the dry air to the north wins out.  I wouldn't expect much if you are on the northern fringe.   

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

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This system is NOT the Nov 25-26 bliz. Sorry, but do the math peeps. Take Nov 25 and add 55 days = Jan 18th. Otherwise, happy tracking to everyone! Nice to see excitement for a change across (most of) our sub.

This storm is related. Thing to remember is when storms cycle back they are the same but different as they always say. Here was Gary's blog from this morning. 

LRC.png

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Bah.  The 12z NAM gives us the farthest north and wettest run so far, but then follows it up with an 18z run that barely even gets the snow to Cedar Rapids again.  This flip-flop crap really gets annoying.

 

With the euro going south on the northern edge, I suppose we should expect the other models to back off, too.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Posted

Bah.  The 12z NAM gives us the farthest north and wettest run so far, but then follows it up with an 18z run that barely even gets the snow to Cedar Rapids again.  This flip-flop crap really gets annoying.

I think some of this is do to the the lack of upper air injested in the 18Z and 06Z runs. IF you compare this 18Z run to the 6Z run- they are quite similar. I have always believed there is a difference no matter the being 6 hours closer to the event. This is from 20 years of forecasting experience. If the 00Z does- than I would be concernced,

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Gary stated a few weeks ago that the cycle length is 45 days, so that would actually match up perfectly.

 

Tom also posted that that estimate seemed quite a bit off. STL didn't get hit by the bliz, but they did score big with the earlier closed low. Don't recall exact dates tho. Same day NYC got smacked unexpectedly with a thump snow. I do remember that. 

 

From my post on 11-15-18

 

 

 

Note: saw an 8.7" report from STL region. Beat NYC...in a November snow competition, lol 

 

Thus, Jan 11th would be 57 days later. Very close to Tom's estimate of the LRC @ approx. of 55 days

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

This storm is related. Thing to remember is when storms cycle back they are the same but different as they always say. Here was Gary's blog from this morning. 

 

Thx for sharing. Guess we'll see. 10 days is not a huge difference,  and if you allow a +/-5% tolerance on any given "repeat" the gap narrows further. Nonetheless, I'm thinking the next system around the 18-20th period would/will align better with the bliz in both strength and track. Fun to follow this either way.  ;)

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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