1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm

[CentralNebWeather]

That looks like a big dry slot on the radar in Oklahoma and Texas.  NWS Hastings mentioned that this morning in their disco that some amounts will be a lot less where that goes through possibly in some Kansas zones.  Something to look at in the next 24 hours.

[Grizzcoat]

12z EURO=

 

DSM-

SAT 00Z 12-JAN  -0.3    -2.5    1023      72      79    0.01     559     540   
SAT 06Z 12-JAN  -2.0    -3.8    1024      91      97    0.12     557     538   
SAT 12Z 12-JAN  -2.8    -5.1    1024      92      96    0.21     554     535   
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  -1.9    -6.0    1025      88      97    0.17     553     533   
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -1.6    -6.8    1028      91      91    0.09     554     532   
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -2.7    -6.2    1030      90      86    0.01     556     532

 

OMA

-SAT 00Z 12-JAN   0.5    -2.0    1021      81      80    0.01     558     541   
SAT 06Z 12-JAN  -0.4    -3.6    1023      96      96    0.13     556     538   
SAT 12Z 12-JAN  -1.4    -4.4    1023      93      98    0.21     553     535   
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  -1.5    -6.0    1026      88      98    0.17     553     533   
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -1.4    -6.2    1028      89      89    0.05     555     533  

[Grizzcoat]

LNK

 

-SAT 00Z 12-JAN   0.1    -1.6    1021      84      89    0.03     558     542   
SAT 06Z 12-JAN  -0.3    -3.9    1022      97      99    0.19     556     538   
SAT 12Z 12-JAN  -1.2    -4.2    1023      93      96    0.21     553     535   
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  -2.2    -5.6    1026      87      94    0.12     554     533   
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -2.3    -6.5    1029      85      84    0.02     556     533

 

CID-

SAT 06Z 12-JAN  -2.4    -3.3    1026      68      97    0.02     558     538   
SAT 12Z 12-JAN  -3.1    -4.4    1025      88      97    0.14     555     535   
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  -1.5    -6.1    1026      85      98    0.16     553     533   
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -1.3    -6.7    1028      90      93    0.12     554     532   
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -2.2    -5.9    1030      87      89    0.01     555     532

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Loving the euro! We'll see what happens!

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR is trending ever so slightly colder. Still not where we want it to be but it's getting there.

[bud2380]

Grizz can you post IOW?

[FV-Mike]

Euro better for Chi peeps as well. 

[Grizzcoat]

IOW-

SAT 06Z 12-JAN  -2.5    -3.8    1026      74      97    0.03     558     538   
SAT 12Z 12-JAN  -2.9    -4.7    1025      90      96    0.20     555     535   
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  -1.5    -6.4    1026      87      97    0.19     553     533   
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -1.2    -6.7    1027      91      94    0.12     554     532   
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -1.8    -6.0    1029      88      89    0.02     555     532

[Grizzcoat]

ORD-

SAT 12Z 12-JAN  -1.5    -4.7    1028      79      95    0.01     557     535   
SAT 18Z 12-JAN  -0.4    -6.2    1028      78      99    0.05     555     534   
SUN 00Z 13-JAN  -1.0    -7.6    1029      88      92    0.21     553     531   
SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -1.3    -7.2    1029      83      91    0.08     554     531   
SUN 12Z 13-JAN  -2.5    -6.2    1030      78      75    0.01     555     532

[Stormhunter87]

Parents just said change over has happened at their place north of Columbia. Currently showing 39 degrees here though :/

[Grizzcoat]

Seeing a S sag on mid range HRRR / RAP with dry air.(in IOWA) I will say though that RAP busted here pretty bad a few weeks ago - though it was not the kind of bust you want. It had snow and ended up with nothing. So you can put your stock in the EURO (which has highly fluctuated the past 3 runs or the short range. I siding with the short range and saying 2-4" here.

[jzuzphreek]

The drizzle just began here in St. Joseph, MO. And the temp has dropped fairly quickly over the last 2 hours. Wunderground tells me it's 38 degrees, and feels like 32.

 

I've told my boss, first snowflake I see, I'm leaving for the day. All my coworkers know I'm a snow-nerd from the south.

[Stormhunter87]

If my original post goes through I was wrong the hrrr amps up a band here.

[Hawkeye]

Seeing a S sag on mid range HRRR / RAP with dry air.(in IOWA) I will say though that RAP busted here pretty bad a few weeks ago - though it was not the kind of bust you want. It had snow and ended up with nothing. So you can put your stock in the EURO (which has highly fluctuated the past 3 runs or the short range. I siding with the short range and saying 2-4" here.

 

Yeah, the Euro brings decent snow up through Chicagoland and 0.40" to Cedar Rapids.  The HRRR is much more robust with the dry air feed, says CR only gets 0.10-0.15" and Chicagoland gets nothing.

[hlcater]

WWA just issued for Linn County and I sense a WSW for SE IA coming on.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX seems convinced that any 6"+ areas up in this neck of the woods will be too isolated to warrant a WSW, though I think they will issue one for the far Southeastern counties during the next shift.

[Grizzcoat]

Anyone have any opions on how the radar seems to be lining up with HRRR/RAP ? Haven't had the time to do it. 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM initializing about a degree too cold. Bigger on dry air at the onset it looks like but it looks to saturate up here at about 9pm. I'm eager to see how the rest of the run goes because I'm worried about the dry air with this one.

[hlcater]

Anyone have any opions on how the radar seems to be lining up with HRRR/RAP ? Haven't had the time to do it. 

The 18z HRRR didn't budge, which is somewhat worrisome if you were hoping for the globals to be right.

[Minny_Weather]

Anyone have any opions on how the radar seems to be lining up with HRRR/RAP ? Haven't had the time to do it. 

Radar is lining up almost perfectly with HRRR. 

[Minny_Weather]

It's amazing how none of the models have budged one bit since yesterday and the storm is already here.

 

I'm dismissing the NAMily because radar doesn't initialize well on it at all. HRRR is almost completely spot on right now besides being a bit warm.

[Minny_Weather]

There's another Southward trend with the cutoff happening and I am not liking it one bit. Now, even a 5 mile shift South in the cutoff will decrease my totals by an inch or two.

[gabel23]

Yah 18z Nam has my county high and dry by literally 40 miles. I"m so sick of these storms with their sharpe cut offs; we are so over due for a share the wealth storm it's not even funny. 

[gosaints]

St. Louis could really have some nice totals

[Minny_Weather]

3km NAM gives the Northwest corner of the county 0.2" and the Southeast corner 6.5".

[bud2380]

That cutoff on the NAM is something else.  

[jzuzphreek]

The drizzle just began here in St. Joseph, MO. And the temp has dropped fairly quickly over the last 2 hours. Wunderground tells me it's 38 degrees, and feels like 32.

 

I've told my boss, first snowflake I see, I'm leaving for the day. All my coworkers know I'm a snow-nerd from the south.

And we have snow!!

 

Local weather had been calling for snow not beginning until the evening all week. So it looks like we're gonna be in for the long haul! Bring it on!

[CentralNebWeather]

Freezing rain and sleet here. Getting a little slick on some streets

[Tom]

12 EPS snow mean also shifted N quite a bit from previous runs...Chicago back in the 2-4" range...that's a pretty big shift to see on the EPS....

[Stormhunter87]

Wow hrrr really cutting that northern edge.

[jaster220]

I feel like I'm lurking in another sub. Pretty sad state of affairs for us Mitt peeps. Too warm out west, too much blocking cold over here. As usual, most from Chicago west have skin in the game and are active participants. Then later we'll get something just in MI and there will be a nearly dead thread with maybe 3 posters. 

 

Anyways, all who are in this good luck! Just nice to see the CONUS lit up with snow headlines finally! 

 

[Grizzcoat]

At this point in the game - at least time wise here in C.IA for the RAP and HRRR ; they are getting close to their wheelhouse and not lining up with some of the more aggressive global models. Of course ; they could be wrong. But so could the global models. A verdict should be known but sometime around 8-9 Pm tonight. Would be odd to see the EURO bust this bad- but it's really not designed for something this in close.  

[CentralNebWeather]

WWA just 1 county south of me. Unfortunately this time being on the northern side doesn’t look promising for much here.

[Grizzcoat]

From DMX AFD-

 

Zooming into mesoscale, def zone clearly sets up across central
to southern Iowa. Decent 500-300mb q-vector convergence ahead of
this band, with a well-phased clear pocket of low-level moisture
flux convergence. Somewhat of a sharp moisture cut-off on the
northern edge suggests slightly tight gradient, where 15-20 miles
will make a difference in terms of impacts. To put this into some
perspective, the last significant winter weather system that
impacted locations along and south of roughly I-80, bringing 15+
inches of snow to south-central Iowa, had roughly a 8-12 mile
sharp cut-off gradient.

Timing...
Impacts should begin in southern Iowa around 00z tonight, gradually
expanding northward towards I-80 by around 06z tonight lasting
through 00z tomorrow. By 18z, much of the accumulating snow should
be done... just lingering flurries expected to continue. Confidence
fairly high in the timing... most snow will fall overnight tonight,
gradually fading by tomorrow afternoon.

Amounts...
Snow ratios with this system may be a little tricky to pin down.
Moisture/supersaturation levels will be the key as tough right now
to pin down dendrites vs more plates in terms of snow crystal habits.
Feel good with 8-9 in snow ratios early on... gradually increasing
throughout the event.

Confidence is very high that the highest amounts will be in southern
to south-central Iowa. Confidence medium-high as to where the northern
edge will set up. At this time, it appears Highway 30 will be near
the northern edge... Again, a 15 to 20 mile shift will make a difference
in terms of where the more significant impacts are felt.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is taking their sweet time doing anything.

[CentralNebWeather]

Now snowing here. Too bad it is 32 degrees and melting on contact.

[Clinton]

Snow accumulating and started earlier than predicted, glad to be home from work.

[Stormhunter87]

OAX is taking their sweet time doing anything.

As usual they like to play it cautious and wait until the last second. Two storms they done that with this year.

[Madtown]

hrrr nailed our little snow event on new years

[hlcater]

Right now the northward progress of the snow is well ahead of the 18z HRRR. To remove the dry air factor, I used composite reflectivity on the HRRR. I did NOT use composite on DMX or OAX due to high beam height.