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Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

Snow Storm Raging Chicago
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#1
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:24 AM

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A little further out then we normally do a thread but signal strength and models can't be ignored, lol. For some just grazed by yesterday's storm, the excitement is palpable. While GFS and FV3 seem progressive and rush a N Stream wave thru in <24 hrs, I much prefer the 13/12z GGEM's portrayal of a slower more mature storm forming a bit south. Going to be a fun week. Let's roll.. :)

 

Attached File  20190113 0z GGEM h162.PNG   189.03KB   3 downloads

 

 

 

 


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#2
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:05 AM

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A little further out then we normally do a thread but signal strength and models can't be ignored, lol. For some just grazed by yesterday's storm, the excitement is palpable. While GFS and FV3 seem progressive and rush a N Stream wave thru in <24 hrs, I much prefer the 13/12z GGEM's portrayal of a slower more mature storm forming a bit south. Going to be a fun week. Let's roll.. :)

 

attachicon.gif20190113 0z GGEM h162.PNG

 

 

 

Both the Euro/ICON slow this system down like the GGEM is showing and dig the storm a lot better.  Nice to see 12z guidance thus far today painting a sweet west/east storm track and one that practically can have many of us again cherish in the snow dept.  Might I also add, temps look ideal for higher snowfall ratios.  Not to mention, the Lehs/LES set up for SE WI/NE IL/N IN is about as good as one could ask 5-6 days out on the models.  A wide open lake with crashing 850's gives me goosebumps in terms of potential with this one.

 

12z GGEM...

 

gem_asnow_ncus_30.png

 

12z ICON...

 

icon_asnow_ncus_61.png


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#3
FV-Mike

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:11 AM

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wow, ready to track the next one!


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#4
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:12 AM

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A little further out then we normally do a thread but signal strength and models can't be ignored, lol. For some just grazed by yesterday's storm, the excitement is palpable. While GFS and FV3 seem progressive and rush a N Stream wave thru in <24 hrs, I much prefer the 13/12z GGEM's portrayal of a slower more mature storm forming a bit south. Going to be a fun week. Let's roll.. :)

 

attachicon.gif20190113 0z GGEM h162.PNG

 

 

 

Ty lord....finally! :D



#5
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:13 AM

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Storm train is rolling!

#6
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:15 AM

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This storm will have some strong winds to content with and also it will be a cold storm at that. Boy o boy, a very fun week coming up. I want to add also that after this big dog, brutally cold air follows.


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#7
gabel23

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:19 AM

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LRC says this one tracks further north than this past storm. The storm that hit Kansas the weekend after Thanksgiving produced blizzard conditions, the storm the following weekend hit my area. I just hope this time around it doesn’t go to far north!! With the NAO being neutral we should expect a west/east track.
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#8
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:33 AM

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LRC says this one tracks further north than this past storm. The storm that hit Kansas the weekend after Thanksgiving produced blizzard conditions, the storm the following weekend hit my area. I just hope this time around it doesn’t go to far north!! With the NAO being neutral we should expect a west/east track.

The remarkable consistency of the global models all showing this storm reminds me of storms from the past that we tracked before and how they all panned out.  I do like the northerly track and would expect to see both you and Clint's are scoring a hit from this one.  For some reason, this storms track reminds of the Nov 24th-25th Blizzard.  It's not out of the realm of possibility this one gets wound up into one.  Fun times tracking this week!


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#9
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:38 AM

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LRC says this one tracks further north than this past storm. The storm that hit Kansas the weekend after Thanksgiving produced blizzard conditions, the storm the following weekend hit my area. I just hope this time around it doesn’t go to far north!! With the NAO being neutral we should expect a west/east track.


Hopefully this pans out for us. Time to replenish the snowpack around here.

#10
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:16 AM

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12z Ukie also on board....taking a northerly track...one would expect the Euro to come north as well....crazy how every model is showing a large system...


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#11
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:21 AM

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Ty lord....finally! :D

 

Can say that again amigo


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#12
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:24 AM

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12z Ukie also on board....taking a northerly track...one would expect the Euro to come north as well....crazy how every model is showing a large system...

 

GGEM snow map and this qpf map, you can clearly see a northern component that hits NE/SD region and (hopefully) merges a bit east with a piece coming up from the the S. I think that the sooner those two get together the bigger/slower/stronger it can be. As for model agreement, yeah this one's on GHD-1 levels imho


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#13
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:26 AM

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GGEM snow map and this qpf map, you can clearly see a northern component that hits NE/SD region and (hopefully) merges a bit east with a piece coming up from the the S. I think that the sooner those two get together the bigger/slower/stronger it can be. As for model agreement, yeah this one's on GHD-1 levels imho


You can rest assure, your seeing what I’m seeing amigo. This one has Bigly potential. With that in mind, looks like the 12z Euro came back north this run.

#14
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:29 AM

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GGEM snow map and this qpf map, you can clearly see a northern component that hits NE/SD region and (hopefully) merges a bit east with a piece coming up from the the S. I think that the sooner those two get together the bigger/slower/stronger it can be. As for model agreement, yeah this one's on GHD-1 levels imho


Actually, I think this one looks more like the Super Bowl Blitz in ‘15 which is one of this years analogs.

#15
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:35 AM

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Check that, 12z Euro is the only model showing the southerly route....not quite as phased as it tracks east and almost sheers out a bit.


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#16
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:46 AM

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Actually, I think this one looks more like the Super Bowl Blitz in ‘15 which is one of this years analogs.

 

For sure, tho iirc, the orig GHD storm was "seen" by the models further out, no? At any rate, you're correct in the type of ingredients and W to E track on this guy.

 

GFS brothers continue to focus on the N energy and ignore and S snow swath.

 

Attached File  20190113 12z FV3 SN total at h162.PNG   150.44KB   6 downloads

 

 

I prefer to sit with some S (Euro) and some N (GGEM) at this range


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#17
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:48 AM

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For sure, tho iirc, the orig GHD storm was "seen" by the models further out, no? At any rate, you're correct in the type of ingredients and W to E track on this guy.

GFS brothers continue to focus on the N energy and ignore and S snow swath.

20190113 12z FV3 SN total at h162.PNG


I prefer to sit with some S (Euro) and some N (GGEM) at this range


Yup, your right about the GHD-1 storm. I remember the Euro 9 days out showed a PanHandle Hook and then within 6-7 days, all the other models caught up. Similar situation here. Models certainly seeing the energy.
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#18
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:51 AM

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Yup, your right about the GHD-1 storm. I remember the Euro 9 days out showed a PanHandle Hook and then within 6-7 days, all the other models caught up. Similar situation here. Models certainly seeing the energy.

 

How are you able to get an ICON snowfall map out to h180? TT cuts off about h120. My pay site also seems to stop there..


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#19
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:57 AM

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In regards to this cold storm, some record cold follows. More series of snowstorms thereafter. Hello Winter!


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#20
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:58 AM

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UKmet at h144 leaning GGEM's way vs the progressive GFS portrayal.

 

Attached File  20190113 12z UKmet h144.GIF   170.07KB   1 downloads


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#21
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:58 AM

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For sure, tho iirc, the orig GHD storm was "seen" by the models further out, no? At any rate, you're correct in the type of ingredients and W to E track on this guy.

 

GFS brothers continue to focus on the N energy and ignore and S snow swath.

 

attachicon.gif20190113 12z FV3 SN total at h162.PNG

 

 

I prefer to sit with some S (Euro) and some N (GGEM) at this range

Am I seeing a foot there?!



#22
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:00 AM

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13/12z FV3 does get the SLP down to 994mb as it passes just south of here. For the debate on whether this is Nov25-26 or Dec1-2 you know what my answer will be without even asking :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#23
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:02 AM

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Am I seeing a foot there?!

 

Yes, your eyes are NOT playing tricks. GGEM has widespread 12+ for even more of The Mitt but slightly north of our backyards. Attm, strength is more important than placement. That'll get dialed in as we go..


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#24
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:08 AM

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From a rather conservative Met in SEMI ;)

 

 

100% there is blizzard potential with this one. The pressure gradient is very stout with this system.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#25
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:30 AM

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From a rather conservative Met in SEMI ;)

Yes..would not be surprised at all as this major storm will be a windmaker. Strong pressure gradient HP will be to our west crashing w this LP will cause a very tight pressure gradient.



#26
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:40 AM

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I will be focusing attm on the ensembles as I think that is the best way to go. IMO, it is just too soon to get fixated on any one OP run.



#27
Money

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:47 AM

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From a rather conservative Met in SEMI ;)


Stebo is not “conservative met” and he’s one of the biggest snow weenies around

#28
gosaints

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:29 PM

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In regards to this cold storm, some record cold follows. More series of snowstorms thereafter. Hello Winter!


record??

#29
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:34 PM

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Stebo is not “conservative met” and he’s one of the biggest snow weenies around

 

I find him to be, but whatever. Ricky from LOT talks up snow potential much more fwiw. Also, I'm not including warmista Met's that only begrudgingly mention a snowstorm after it's imminent. Those Met's aren't even "fair and balanced"


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#30
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:38 PM

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Here's your Encyclopedia Britannica definition of conservative Met. Almost all of 'em at GRR. Funny how that phrase is a constant wrt synoptic events until we're already have 6-8" OTG somewhere in their CWA

 

 

High uncertainty remains, and likely will for at least a few more
days, regarding the track and timing of another big synoptic
system with accumulating snow next weekend. Operational ECMWF
maintains the theme of a system eerily similar to the one that
just tracked by to our south on Saturday. However the latest
Canadian GEM and GFS deterministic solutions, as well as a few of
the EC ensemble members, are farther north with that system and
bring the swath of heavy snow across srn Lwr MI.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#31
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:42 PM

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Hey guys, In regards to the track of this next system I just wonder what affects the current snow cover will have on the track?

#32
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:49 PM

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How are you able to get an ICON snowfall map out to h180? TT cuts off about h120. My pay site also seems to stop there..

Both 00z/12z go out to hr180, 06z/18z only out to hr120...


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#33
Money

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:03 PM

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Hey guys, In regards to the track of this next system I just wonder what affects the current snow cover will have on the track?


Very minimal
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#34
gosaints

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:07 PM

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I find him to be, but whatever. Ricky from LOT talks up snow potential much more fwiw. Also, I'm not including warmista Met's that only begrudgingly mention a snowstorm after it's imminent. Those Met's aren't even "fair and balanced"


are their really NWS mets that do this?? There is a difference between being conservative and a warminista

#35
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:09 PM

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Hey guys, In regards to the track of this next system I just wonder what affects the current snow cover will have on the track?

 

nsm_depth_2019011305_Midwest.jpg

 

My light covering is melting under 32F and sun. 33F for a high tomorrow. This came after weeks or even months of warmth so it's covering unfrozen ground. I fully expect the southern end of this to shrink quite a bit by Friday morning, perhaps up to around I-70 in SIL on into SIN and SOH. Thus, it should not have much stopping a SLP from tracking that far north if it wants to. Hopefully tho, it could aid in keeping WAA at a minimum unlike the bare ground we started with back in Nov. That's my 2-cents. Others may feel differently.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#36
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:24 PM

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Wow! This could be another good one. And this time we will have amazing ratios with temperatures so cold. Even just .30 of QPF would give us 6 inches in that type of cold air!


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#37
Stormhunter87

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:43 PM

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Wpc already jumping the chances for the next storm. Starting to get fun this winter. My dad is kinda freaking out because of the last storm. Worried about the weight of the snow collapsing the roof.

#38
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:45 PM

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My highs might now be getting outta the low teens for highs, if not colder. Nighttime lows will easily drop subzero IMBY, especially, w snowcover. Very cold air is poised to follow this storm. I can definitely see some record low temps being broken.



#39
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:47 PM

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18z ICON (only goes to h120) has a SLP in the classic panhandle location with a large snow shield breaking out to it's north across Neb and S Dakota

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#40
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:49 PM

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Wpc already jumping the chances for the next storm. Starting to get fun this winter. My dad is kinda freaking out because of the last storm. Worried about the weight of the snow collapsing the roof.

 

Not sure what their typical time-frame is, but for y'all out in Neb it's only about 120 hrs out..just sayin'


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#41
gimmesnow

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:50 PM

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Yes please, I got my snowmobile suspension all figured out.


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#42
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 01:57 PM

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@Jaster

 

how do the ensembles look?



#43
Stormhunter87

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:00 PM

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Not sure what their typical time-frame is, but for y'all out in Neb it's only about 120 hrs out..just sayin'


It's their 4-7 day outlook for winter weather.http://origin.wpc.nc..._medr.php?day=6
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#44
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:04 PM

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13/18z GFS = same SLP in the P-handle but already 998 mb, couple deeper than that ICON above. EDIT - it's also 6 hrs later timestamp I noticed.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#45
Stormhunter87

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:06 PM

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13/18z GFS = same SLP in the P-handle but already 998 mb, couple deeper than that ICON above.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

Oh that is looking good. 540 line well south and the low is looking beefy.
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#46
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:07 PM

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NOAA:

 

Upper-level troughing will then develop east of the Rockies on
Friday and quickly amplify as the trough deepens and carves into
northern Texas early Saturday. A resulting ridge will develop east
and will expand into the Ohio Valley as a sheared jet streak
positioned from TX into southern MI intensifies. Quite a big jump
regarding position of this system relative to yesterday`s guidance,
as now the GFS (including FV3), GEM, ECMWF have this system
impacting parts if not all of SE MI at some point during the
weekend with heavy snow.


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#47
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:08 PM

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Wpc already jumping the chances for the next storm. Starting to get fun this winter. My dad is kinda freaking out because of the last storm. Worried about the weight of the snow collapsing the roof.

 

Nice look already from this range

 

Attached File  Screenshot_2019-01-13 WPC Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook.png   639.07KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#48
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:10 PM

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GFS wants to crush me at hr144

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_24.png


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#49
Money

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:11 PM

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Hits the same areas that just got hit

#50
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:12 PM

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There are major 500 mb changes showing on the GFS the last few runs.  First and foremost is the slowing of the main energy coming in from the west.  It's trending toward the slower euro.  What Iowa needs is for the Hudson Bay vort lobes to back off a bit so the main energy doesn't get suppressed.

 

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_us_fh144_trend.gif   760.59KB   1 downloads


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"






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