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Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??


jaster220

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No headlines yet from the NWS, but I am thinking perhaps by the 4pm package later today, they might put SEMI in the WWA. Currently expecting 3-5".

 

Edit: Hopefully I can score some LES from Port Huron Sunday and add to my totals.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah, the HRRR is way north with that band.... into southern MN and WI and mostly out of Iowa.  On the plus side, the HRRR has pulled the southern band back nw into my area.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Good morning, I wanted to wish everyone good luck on the upcoming storm.  I have enjoyed everyones conversation and I wanted to share a video Gary Lezak made this morning in discussing the models and what he believes they are doing and not doing correctly.  It is a KC based forecast of course but I think it is still relevant to many.

https://weather2020.com/2019/01/18/a-storm-approaches-todays-video-blog/

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Wonder if that snow in NW Iowa is actually verifying. Seems to be a touch further south than what the HRRR is initializing with. Not really further south as a whole, but the snow shield seems to extend further south than shown on the HRRR. Could just be something that isn’t producing snow, though.

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12z NAM

 

From 00z to 12z, the wet band it had from Waterloo to Chicago has been replaced by a dry moat.  I also don't like how Cedar Rapids is on the nw edge of the southern band.

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z NAM

 

From 00z to 12z, the wet band it had from Waterloo to Chicago has been replaced by a dry moat.

 

namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

Very curious about that. Based on how the radar looks right now, I’d like to say that dry moat could be wrong, but the fact is that I’m probably going to be the one that’s wrong.

 

If you look at the snow shield on the radar right now compared to what the NAM has at this time (or even hours later), it seems to extend further south over in NW Iowa. That is, of course, assuming snow is actually occurring over there as it shows.

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Dang, Johnson County (my area near Iowa City) is looking like the place to be in Eastern Iowa.  The Euro and now the 12z NAM and 3K NAM hit my area hard. 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019011812/024/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Man, I’m in the lollipop jack zone on this one!
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Another 3k nam map.  Because the northern band has been moved up into Wisconsin, Chicagoland gets less.  Again, Cedar Rapids is dangerously on the nw precipice of the southern band, which has veered further southeast again.  Snow geeks in northern Iowa have to be sweating this one a bit.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_9.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Common for WAA wing to extend slightly further south and east than model depict. Right now the HRRR seems to be initializing pretty well

So is that actually snow falling that may continue to develop? That could make a pretty big difference in my area, as I’m right on the southern edge of that northern band of snow.

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The Green Bay office talks about LES potential. LES on the west shore of L. Mich. is so finicky and relatively infrequent that it's hard to model and hard to focus. When those plumes form the usually start from the north and then slide to the south. How quickly they move is anyone's guess really. It will be fun to watch.

The second facet of the system is the potential for lake-effect
snow near the Lake Michigan shoreline late tonight and Saturday as
winds turn northeast. The high-res models were generally in
agreement that a lake band would eventually form, though as usual
they differed on where it would come ashore. Manitowoc is the
most likely area, though some brought it inland as far north as
the Door peninsula. Dry air above an inversion around 5K ft will
work against the development of an intense band, but conditions
still look favorable for 2-5 inches (system snow and lake-effect)
from Algoma south near the lake. The current snow amount forecast
would support an advisory for Manitowoc County, but given the
remaining uncertainty over the northern extent of the system snows
and the always tricky lake-effect forecast for east-central
Wisconsin, held off on posting one with the morning forecast.

 

Boy, the 3km NAM is really showing a clear signal that there will be multiple plumes coming in off the lake...IMO, I could see some spots near the lake hit 15"+...if seen this movie before and the reason why is bc I think the models are underplaying the potential.  Last storm that hit the northern burbs with a lake enhanced band that dumped more snow than was anticipated while the models showed a marginal set up.  I remember 850's were barely -5C.  We have not seen that much cold since then that would have lowered lake temps.  This go around, 850's are much colder and my gut is telling me to look out for Lehs to be better during the synoptic event and when the LES event kicks in Sat pm - Sun this should be fun watching it unfold. 

 

Just by gauging what the 3km NAM is showing, I could see 2"+/hr snowfall rates if indeed a lake plume does develop which is looking like it will be due to strengthening convergence into NE IL.  Prob one of the more ideal set ups we have seen in a long while.  Heck, I think MKE is in the game to as ENE winds are ideal for them as well.

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Its never good to be in the jackzone at any time unless it's when the storm is over with.

Yup lol. You start to get a general idea of where it’ll end up right now, but you don’t really know for sure until it actually starts to spread over your area and you can see where the heavy stuff is setting up. Especially with a storm like this. It’s been a tricky one, that’s for sure.

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Well, I'm still on target to get anywhere from 0"-12" of snow later today and tonight. The setup seems to favor the extremes in my area - slightly stronger storm, maybe a foot - slightly weaker storm, maybe nothing - with no happy middle. Temps will be critical as well. At least it's finally game day...  :) 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Yup lol. You start to get a general idea of where it’ll end up right now, but you don’t really know for sure until it actually starts to spread over your area and you can see where the heavy stuff is setting up. Especially with a storm like this. It’s been a tricky one, that’s for sure.

The second band is where you could make bank.  I think the fronto band skirts to your north

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