Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[jlp]

Cmc fills the snow hole in Wisconsin. Going to be a long week of inconsistent models.

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE has a nice track for those (assuming) in most of IA (esp E) N.IL and  maybe S.WI. Hard to tell without precip maps. 

[Grizzcoat]

Right now - nearly all the guidance I have see agress pretty good on loc of the L at HR 120. (pretty consistent also)  IT's between that and HR 144 that differences occur. So one would think 24 hours from now..... Yeah right.

[jlp]

Today was a good day. According to the models everyone was a winner at one point.

[jcwxguy]

Ukmet qpf

[hlcater]

Ukmet qpf

 

Very large area of 12+ inches, even the 0.5-0.75" QPF would likely yield 8-12 inches as this storm(for the first time this season) has a solid possibility of higher ratios. GFS says 15:1???

[Money]

Gfs ensembles had a noticable shift north

[Grizzcoat]

FV3 also a good hit for E.NE / most of iA / N.IL into S.MI. Long ways to go on this one but the models are pretty consistent at a pan handle low forming at HR 120 with Arctic air ready to plunge. 

[Niko]

..and 14/0z GGEM with axis NORTH of mby - hahahahaha

 

Gives my area 10+..... ...too bad its not 36-48hrs away.

[Hawkeye]

The storm is there.  We just need the pieces to come together just right... or at least not wrong.  I guess I'll be staying up for the euro this week.

[Niko]

The storm is there.  We just need the pieces to come together just right... or at least not wrong.  I guess I'll be staying up for the euro this week.

Me too....starting on Thursday

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3 looking better but also showing a storm after this one hmmm.

[Minny_Weather]

Fv3 looking better but also showing a storm after this one hmmm.

That would be the best clipper we've ever had here if that next wave comes to fruition. The GFS models have been the only ones to show it thus far though so I'm fully expecting it to disappear. Clippers are a whole different animal and when only one model 9 days out is showing it it's probably best to bet on it not happening.

[jcwxguy]

Euro solid hit for Lincoln/Omaha and points south and east

[Hawkeye]

I can't see the precip maps, yet, but the euro appears to be another crush job for areas just south and east of Iowa... maybe better than 12z.

[Grizzcoat]

Classic IA midwinter storm on the Euro. Alse elsewhere. Will post a map soon but the ratios looks to be unreal in IA> 

[snowstorm83]

Columbus Ohio gets crushed on the Euro. Poor I-95 cities look about 3-5".

[Grizzcoat]

DSM-

 

FRI 18Z 18-JAN  -8.6    -3.9    1025      78      91    0.01     553     534   
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  -8.4    -5.7    1023      83      99    0.01     552     534   
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  -8.3    -8.5    1024      86      97    0.37     551     532   
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  -9.3    -9.9    1025      82      95    0.16     550     531   
SAT 18Z 19-JAN -10.5   -12.3    1028      74      88    0.02     549     528

[jcwxguy]

Remember this is 10:1

[Money]

Remember this is 10:1

Whats it like to the East of that?

[Minny_Weather]

Columbus Ohio gets crushed on the Euro. Poor I-95 cities look about 3-5".

Oh no! How will the East Coast weenies ever live????

[Grizzcoat]

Whats it like to the East of that?

weak in MADTOWN

[Craig-OmahaWX]

EURO looking good for Omaha, Lincoln, Nebraska City, Falls City etc. Gives omaha about 9 inches.

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

Fairly sharp cutoff nw of Omaha and Fremont

[Grizzcoat]

Locations in IA will differ--- but that D**n Hawkeye states looks Golden.

[Hawkeye]

Well, it's improving.  Cedar Rapids' precip doubled from the last run.

[Tom]

00z Euro (Kuchera) which may provide us a clue as to what the snow ratios may look like as the "fluff" factor looks great with this one.  Boy, that Lehs/LES signal into NE IL looks amazing at this range.  This could be a bonafide 1-2 punch for Chicago if trends continue.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS (at this range - just fun to look at)  Never  wanna be in the bulls eye 5 days out. My gut says it keeps going S. 

 

[Tom]

06Z GFS (at this range - just fun to look at)  Never  wanna be in the bulls eye 5 days out. My gut says it keeps going S. 

 

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I could see that happening if its more progressive.  Interestingly, the 00z UKIE digs this storm in the MW and gets down to a 990mb storm in C IL.

[KCSmokey]

This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

 

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.

[Tom]

This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

 

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.

Welcome aboard!  I must ask, what brought you to KC??  What a stark difference living in the mountains of AK/UT and having to deal with the heat/humidity living in the Plains.  I'm sure you miss real winter living in the mountains.

[Tom]

00z EPS coming in juicier and a bit N compared to previous runs.  I glanced through all 51 members and nearly 90-95% have a major winter storm targeting a lot of us in the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  There are some big hits showing up and wound up storms.

 

 

[KCSmokey]

Welcome aboard! I must ask, what brought you to KC?? What a stark difference living in the mountains of AK/UT and having to deal with the heat/humidity living in the Plains. I'm sure you miss real winter living in the mountains.

Thanks Tom! It was a college-driven move in the 90’s and then I met my Iowa native wife and have been grounded here. Still travel a lot back West as I have family in Washington state and Idaho.

[Clinton]

Thanks Tom! It was a college-driven move in the 90’s and then I met my Iowa native wife and have been grounded here. Still travel a lot back West as I have family in Washington state and Idaho.

Welcome, your going to love this forum.  It's great to have another KC area guy aboard!

[Niko]

Nice hit on the Euro last night. W very cold air in place, ratios will be quite high and accumulations will be quite higher. Lets see how the next couple of days play.

[Tom]

Nice hit on the Euro last night. W very cold air in place, ratios will be quite low and accumulations will be quite higher. Lets see how the next couple of days play.

I believe you meant to say quite "high"...12:1 or higher is certainly on the table...

[Niko]

I believe you meant to say quite "high"...12:1 or higher is certainly on the table...

Yes..thanks for the correction....Still did not have my morning coffee.....

[Tom]

Yes..thanks for the correction....Still did not have my morning coffee.....

Yup, been there before...I'm almost done with my "bullet coffee"...keto friendly

[Tom]

All in all, at this range, I like the "share the wealth" look this system is showing....for comparisons here are the Euro/GFS snow maps....