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Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

Snow Storm Raging Chicago
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#101
TOL_Weather

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:35 PM

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Columbus Ohio gets crushed on the Euro. Poor I-95 cities look about 3-5".


Oh no! How will the East Coast weenies ever live???? :(
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season: 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#102
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:37 PM

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Whats it like to the East of that?

weak in MADTOWN


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#103
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:40 PM

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EURO looking good for Omaha, Lincoln, Nebraska City, Falls City etc. Gives omaha about 9 inches.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#104
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:40 PM

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Attached File  ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-162-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png   66.91KB   1 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#105
jcwxguy

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:46 PM

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Fairly sharp cutoff nw of Omaha and Fremont
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#106
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:55 PM

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Locations in IA will differ--- but that d**n Hawkeye states looks Golden.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#107
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:55 PM

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Well, it's improving.  Cedar Rapids' precip doubled from the last run.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#108
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:46 AM

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00z Euro (Kuchera) which may provide us a clue as to what the snow ratios may look like as the "fluff" factor looks great with this one.  Boy, that Lehs/LES signal into NE IL looks amazing at this range.  This could be a bonafide 1-2 punch for Chicago if trends continue.


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#109
Grizzcoat

Posted 14 January 2019 - 02:52 AM

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06Z GFS (at this range - just fun to look at)  Never  wanna be in the bulls eye 5 days out. My gut says it keeps going S. 

 

Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_138.gif   73.89KB   4 downloads


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#110
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:03 AM

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06Z GFS (at this range - just fun to look at)  Never  wanna be in the bulls eye 5 days out. My gut says it keeps going S. 

 

attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_138.gif

I could see that happening if its more progressive.  Interestingly, the 00z UKIE digs this storm in the MW and gets down to a 990mb storm in C IL.


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#111
KCSmokey

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:14 AM

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This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.
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#112
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:17 AM

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This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.

Welcome aboard!  I must ask, what brought you to KC??  What a stark difference living in the mountains of AK/UT and having to deal with the heat/humidity living in the Plains.  I'm sure you miss real winter living in the mountains.


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#113
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:28 AM

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00z EPS coming in juicier and a bit N compared to previous runs.  I glanced through all 51 members and nearly 90-95% have a major winter storm targeting a lot of us in the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  There are some big hits showing up and wound up storms.

 

 


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#114
KCSmokey

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:48 AM

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Welcome aboard! I must ask, what brought you to KC?? What a stark difference living in the mountains of AK/UT and having to deal with the heat/humidity living in the Plains. I'm sure you miss real winter living in the mountains.


Thanks Tom! It was a college-driven move in the 90’s and then I met my Iowa native wife and have been grounded here. Still travel a lot back West as I have family in Washington state and Idaho.
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#115
Clinton

Posted 14 January 2019 - 03:56 AM

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Thanks Tom! It was a college-driven move in the 90’s and then I met my Iowa native wife and have been grounded here. Still travel a lot back West as I have family in Washington state and Idaho.

Welcome, your going to love this forum.  It's great to have another KC area guy aboard!


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#116
Niko

Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:28 AM

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Nice hit on the Euro last night. W very cold air in place, ratios will be quite high and accumulations will be quite higher. Lets see how the next couple of days play.


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#117
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:33 AM

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Nice hit on the Euro last night. W very cold air in place, ratios will be quite low and accumulations will be quite higher. Lets see how the next couple of days play.

I believe you meant to say quite "high"...12:1 or higher is certainly on the table...



#118
Niko

Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:40 AM

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I believe you meant to say quite "high"...12:1 or higher is certainly on the table...

Yes..thanks for the correction....Still did not have my morning coffee.....


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#119
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:41 AM

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Yes..thanks for the correction....Still did not have my morning coffee.....

Yup, been there before...I'm almost done with my "bullet coffee"...keto friendly


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#120
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:42 AM

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All in all, at this range, I like the "share the wealth" look this system is showing....for comparisons here are the Euro/GFS snow maps....

 

 

Dw31EesW0AAFA1p.jpg


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#121
mlgamer

Posted 14 January 2019 - 05:43 AM

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Hey guys. I had to take a road trip to south KC (Overland Park) this past Saturday morning so luckily I got in on the heavy snowfall there while it was doing nada at my house in SW Topeka. Man, nothing beats being out in a good snowstorm!

 

Hopefully this next storm pans out and is share the wealth for much of the sub. After Saturday I'm jonesing for more snow so gotta keep the storms coming. :)


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#122
East Dubzz

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:01 AM

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On the northern edge again... come on storm, show me the money!!

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 30.93"

September rainfall total: 8.07"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 3.21" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3


#123
westMJim

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:32 AM

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This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.

Welcome nice to see new people 


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#124
Clinton

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:39 AM

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This is from Gary Lezaks blog this morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Snow flurries this morning.  Expect a cloudy sky with a few flurries.  High:  33°
  • Tuesday:  Cloudy early with some sun finally breaking out. High: 42°
  • Wednesday:  Increasing clouds and turning colder. High:  36°
  • Thursday’s storm:  Cloudy with a chance of rain-sleet-snow for a short period of time as a system zips by early in the day.  High: 37°
  • Friday:  Cloudy and breezy with rain likely developing during the day. The rain will change to snow Friday night.  High:  39°
  • Saturday:  Snow likely, possibly heavy early in the day.  It will be windy with blowing snow and crashing temperatures dropping into the teens.  Accumulations of snow are likely.
  • Sunday:  Becoming mostly sunny, cold, with the wind dying down.  Temperatures in the single digits to teens.
  • Sunday night for the game:  Dry and cold with light south winds. Temperatures between 5 and 12 degrees.

Temperatures Sunday morning:



#125
Stormhunter87

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:46 AM

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This is definitely going to be fun one to watch. WPC keeping a wide area under the gun. And of course the local guys are getting pissed that people are sharing snow maps on social media.
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#126
gosaints

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:47 AM

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GEFS trend would be leaning towards the southern midwest again.  Will be interesting where they head at 12z.



#127
Tony

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:48 AM

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Just catching up on this thread and boy does the Euro and Ukmet really blossom the qpf for this storm for our sub-forum and continues to increase going east of us. Track is way up in the air but many will get nailed with this system and LES and Lehs a very good possibility for our area. Fun tracking the rest of the work week. 


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#128
someweatherdude

Posted 14 January 2019 - 06:59 AM

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Welcome, your going to love this forum.  It's great to have another KC area guy aboard

Welcome from me too!



#129
FarmerRick

Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:11 AM

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This is definitely going to be fun one to watch. WPC keeping a wide area under the gun. And of course the local guys are getting pissed that people are sharing snow maps on social media.

Who is that?



#130
Stormhunter87

Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:21 AM

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Who is that?

Rusty Lord calling people dumb for sharing snow maps.

#131
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:29 AM

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12Z ICON at hour 105 looking great for us Nebraskans on here. 


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#132
Stormhunter87

Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:39 AM

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12Z ICON at hour 105 looking great for us Nebraskans on here.

Looks like decent snow bands but it is being forced south really quickly. I won't be super lucky about getting more snow but man the ICON is really pushing this storm.
Edit: Central Nebraska does great on this run

#133
Snowshoe

Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:50 AM

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Looks like i'm sitting this storm out yet again. Winter better not show up in April like it did last year!


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#134
GDR

Posted 14 January 2019 - 07:59 AM

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Looks like it blows up in Iowa on gfs

#135
jzuzphreek

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:00 AM

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This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.


Greetings KCSmokey! I'm a Southern, bayou-raised kid (New Orleans), recently relocated to St. Joe, MO. And I also say, "Bring it on!"

#136
TOL_Weather

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:01 AM

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Rusty Lord calling people dumb for sharing snow maps.

Rusty Dawkins too. I'm not a fan of either. Both get way too emotional on social media. I'm all for anti-hype, but they both legit go after people.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season: 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#137
bud2380

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:01 AM

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GFS starting to look like a strong clipper coming through now.  Still a solid hit for many though.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#138
james1976

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:05 AM

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GFS has been pretty consistent with this solution.
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#139
Stormhunter87

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:06 AM

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Rusty Dawkins too. I'm not a fan of either. Both get way too emotional on social media. I'm all for anti-hype, but they both legit go after people.

Yeah I thought he was alright up until this year. He just keeps calling out people or saying he is better. He was wrong in the last storm and he changed his forecast as the snow was falling. Anywho just annoying that they do that. What they should do is reply with input or provide their line of thinking not call people dumb. Atm they are the dumb looking ones.

#140
Hawkeye

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:07 AM

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Yeah, it's a decent storm, but the northwest flow over the lakes won't allow it to really wrap up.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#141
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:22 AM

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Looks like decent snow bands but it is being forced south really quickly. I won't be super lucky about getting more snow but man the ICON is really pushing this storm.
Edit: Central Nebraska does great on this run

Unfortunately not so well on GFS or Canadian.  Still many things to happen during this week.


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#142
dubuque473

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:30 AM

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Bodes well I am not in the bullseye this far out.

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#143
Hawkeye

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:34 AM

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FV3 is an improvement vs the 00z run.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#144
Grizzcoat

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:39 AM

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Ukie pretty much in line with others. Will be interesting to see precip shield if someone can post. Thanks in advance.

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#145
hlcater

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:42 AM

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Last night's ukie was super impressive with over 2" of QPF(likely as snow) in some spots.


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2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#146
Hawkeye

Posted 14 January 2019 - 09:10 AM

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12z UK has taken a big step back... now much closer to the other weaker, more progressive models.  Cedar Rapids only gets 2-3 inches.

 

Frankly, it doesn't appear the setup is right for Iowa to get a biggie out of this.  I'm just hoping for a 3-6-incher.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#147
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 09:18 AM

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12z GEFS total qpf....

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_27.png


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#148
hlcater

Posted 14 January 2019 - 09:23 AM

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12z UK has taken a big step back... now much closer to the other weaker, more progressive models. Cedar Rapids only gets 2-3 inches.

Frankly, it doesn't appear the setup is right for Iowa to get a biggie out of this. I'm just hoping for a 3-6-incher.


Though to be fair, I do have higher than normal confidence in at least *some* snow.

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#149
jaster220

Posted 14 January 2019 - 09:48 AM

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00z EPS coming in juicier and a bit N compared to previous runs.  I glanced through all 51 members and nearly 90-95% have a major winter storm targeting a lot of us in the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  There are some big hits showing up and wound up storms.

 

I think the Euro is catching on. That WGN map does not match what you posted for the Op Euro very well which had much more in SMI, at least it looked that way. 14/12z Ukie took a step back and GEFS are lame. I still feel there's time for this to trend slower, stronger, bigger as some runs of each model have flashed. I think the suppressed/squished storm portrayal will correct itself in due time. Time will tell my gut if it's right or not, lol. In the meantime happy tracking! This is a fun stretch of #winter

 

All in all, at this range, I like the "share the wealth" look this system is showing....for comparisons here are the Euro/GFS snow maps....

 

 

Dw31EesW0AAFA1p.jpg


  • Tom likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#150
Illinois_WX

Posted 14 January 2019 - 09:50 AM

Illinois_WX

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I’m not worried. Still super far out, plenty of time for it to change back. If you think about it, it’s better when it does this 100+ hours, and it’s always pretty inevitable for it to do just that. Hopefully models will pick back up on it, I’m not losing hope for a solid snowstorm for a lot this forum.
  • Tom, jaster220 and Bryan1117 like this

'18-'19 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SNOWFALL TOTAL: ~20" (as of 02/05/19) 

 

 

 

 

 






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