Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[james1976]

Some counties in W IA have been dropped from the warning

[indianajohn]

well it's looking like this might be a bust for my area........have to love the highs and lows of model watching LMAO!!!

[james1976]

Sun just came out. Awesome

[East Dubzz]

Sun just came out. Awesome

Good sign for thunderstorm development later!!

 

Oh, wait...

[Hawkeye]

Models still spitting out 4 or 5" for me but I'm not buying it based on radar trends.

 

The HRRR doesn't even have your precip blossoming until mid afternoon.

[WBadgersW]

Things are looking up here. MKX talked about expanding the WSW in their short 10am update.

[Hawkeye]

15z HRRR did inch nw with the southern band.

[East Dubzz]

I would definitely take what the HRRR is showing right now. Assuming ratios are still what DVN originally indicated, would probably be 6” or more.

 

That said, I think my prediction for Dubuque right now would be 4-6”.

[St Paul Storm]

WWA expanded north to the southern TC metro. Rochester gonna rake later this afternoon.

[Hawkeye]

12z FV3

 

[dubuque473]

I am going with 6”. Along Hwy 20 sounds like a decent shot.

[East Dubzz]

I am going with 6”. Along Hwy 20 sounds like a decent shot.

Definitely possible. Most models seem to probably indicate 5-7” for us, but I always like to take off a little bit with the assumption that models are probably slightly overdoing it.

[St Paul Storm]

WWA expanded north to the southern TC metro. Rochester gonna rake later this afternoon.

And just like that...Rochester added the the warning. Gosaints score.

[dubuque473]

And the flurries have begun....

[BMT]

this thing has been an interesting one to track.  liking the HRRR trends for CR though.  

[VMB443]

MKX update says I get 4-8 - they bumped up the high end of the range - liking how that’s happening, rather than the other way around.

[East Dubzz]

And the flurries have begun....

Unfortunately I don’t believe it’ll last long. We’ll maybe get some flurries from getting hit with this initial band, but it’ll scoot past us and we’ll have a lull in snow for a while.

[gosaints]

Point and click up to 4-8

[gimmesnow]

MKX update says I get 4-8 - they bumped up the high end of the range - liking how that’s happening, rather than the other way around.

 

 I'm a little West of you, we were at 5-8 last night with the warning, but they bumped the lower total down an inch. Regardless this looks like it's really shaping up for S WI.

[dubuque473]

Yeah looks like 2 pm I hear. I am on 3 weeks vacation, I can wait lol

[East Dubzz]

Yeah looks like 2 pm I hear. I am on 3 weeks vacation, I can wait lol

HRRR doesn’t have it starting back up until about 5/6ish.

 

Sounds like a good time to go have a daytime snooze

[james1976]

Full blown sun here. C IA dry air is the real deal.

[FV-Mike]

LOT Update: No significant changes for the area

 

In summary, no significant changes to the message for this event
this morning. One element we did alter was the mid-late afternoon
snow potential, confining the highest likelihood of commute
impacts to I-90 and north.

Will have more in the afternoon discussion overall, but will
briefly describe some observational trends tied to onset time and
evolution into the evening. The well-defined northern stream mid-
level wave across southeast South Dakota has been mainly moving
due east, a little further north than guidance indicated last
night. This will start to trend more east-southeast as a gradual
phasing with the southern stream low begins to occur. The active
baroclinic zone draped from the Minnesota/Iowa border region into
southwest Wisconsin this morning is gradually filling in with
snow, some heavy. As this has filled in it has slowed its northern
progress. Extrapolating its current development would bring it
into the northern CWA this afternoon, and more so the far northern
CWA (I-90 and north) as it becomes robust around sunset. High-
resolution guidance generally supports this. There may be a period
mid-afternoon where further south of that does still see snow,
but the stronger frontogenesis (f-gen) and vertical circulation
for appreciable snow looks to be more focused in the far north.

As broader synoptic forcing overspreads the region this evening,
snow should spread from west to east across the area. F-gen
signatures become somewhat transient, but there remains
indications of that as the systems gradually phase in the broad
northern precipitation shield over the area. General snowfall
forecast amounts still look good. Some parts of the I-88 corridor
have been lowered just slightly because of the aforementioned
mid-late afternoon expectations.

While could justify backing up the start time of some of the
warning counties along I-88 that begin at 3 pm, the northern
parts of these counties, including Cook, could certainly still
get into the f-gen driven more moderate snow. So have left as is.

[Tony]

LOT Update: No significant changes for the area

 

In summary, no significant changes to the message for this event

this morning. One element we did alter was the mid-late afternoon

snow potential, confining the highest likelihood of commute

impacts to I-90 and north.

 

Will have more in the afternoon discussion overall, but will

briefly describe some observational trends tied to onset time and

evolution into the evening. The well-defined northern stream mid-

level wave across southeast South Dakota has been mainly moving

due east, a little further north than guidance indicated last

night. This will start to trend more east-southeast as a gradual

phasing with the southern stream low begins to occur. The active

baroclinic zone draped from the Minnesota/Iowa border region into

southwest Wisconsin this morning is gradually filling in with

snow, some heavy. As this has filled in it has slowed its northern

progress. Extrapolating its current development would bring it

into the northern CWA this afternoon, and more so the far northern

CWA (I-90 and north) as it becomes robust around sunset. High-

resolution guidance generally supports this. There may be a period

mid-afternoon where further south of that does still see snow,

but the stronger frontogenesis (f-gen) and vertical circulation

for appreciable snow looks to be more focused in the far north.

 

As broader synoptic forcing overspreads the region this evening,

snow should spread from west to east across the area. F-gen

signatures become somewhat transient, but there remains

indications of that as the systems gradually phase in the broad

northern precipitation shield over the area. General snowfall

forecast amounts still look good. Some parts of the I-88 corridor

have been lowered just slightly because of the aforementioned

mid-late afternoon expectations.

 

While could justify backing up the start time of some of the

warning counties along I-88 that begin at 3 pm, the northern

parts of these counties, including Cook, could certainly still

get into the f-gen driven more moderate snow. So have left as is.

I still like where we are sitting here in N. IL with both system and LES potential. LES potential has focused more inland then previous runs and seems to stay on our side of the lake. Should be a fun couple days here.

[St Paul Storm]

Point and click up to 4-8

Rochester will never be denied. MN’s snow magnet.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

 

I don't like the way it shows the southern band kinda hitting a wall around I-80.

 

[Snowshoe]

Wisco map updated at 11:17am

 

[East Dubzz]

16z HRRR continues to look good. A slight improvement from last time. A majority of the DVN area with .4” QPF.

[james1976]

16z HRRR continues to look good. A slight improvement from last time. A majority of the DVN area with .4” QPF.

What's it look like over here?

[gimmesnow]

Is this stuff coming down nice and powdery or is it wet and heavy?

[gosaints]

Pixie dust so far

[East Dubzz]

What's it look like over here?

Do you live in SE Butler county?

[james1976]

Do you live in SE Butler county?

SW Butler

[james1976]

Sun went back under. Clouds have thickened. Maybe that's a good sign. I kinda forgot the Warning doesnt officially kick in until noon for my area.

[East Dubzz]

SW Butler

Has you right around .3” QPF.

[Hawkeye]

16z HRRR

 

Earlier this morning a few straight runs lowered the qpf in the southern band, but the last few have bumped it back up again.  0.40+" is what I'd like to see from this.

 

[dubuque473]

East Dub are you receiving any of this flurrie activity?

[East Dubzz]

East Dub are you receiving any of this flurrie activity?

I’m actually in Dubuque for work (on cedar cross), and it’s more than flurry activity. I have snow covering my windshield, actually.

[Madtown]

clouds have lowered and thickened...let see some flakes!

[dubuque473]

Ok, it is a nice bonus then. I am up by hwy 52 and the NW Arterial.