Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[ToastedRavs]

Snow ratios must be pretty high provided these totals could actually verify...lots of powda flying around with this system...

Predictions of temps in mid to upper teens, DP in low to mid, I could easily see 17 to 20:1 ratios. Be a ton fluffier than what we just got. Bad news would be the wind. But beggars can't be choosers at this point of Winter

[Minny_Weather]

Do you guys think Kuchera is pretty realistic with this system? I know ratios will be higher than 10:1.

At this moment, Kuchera is probably the best bet. Only hitch is that wind will bog down ratios a bit.

[Stormhunter87]

The cold air will definitely be in place for this storm if it materialises around here. I like the euro run the best but hate being the target this early. Edit: WPC very confident in eastern Nebraska getting hit http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=5

[james1976]

I'll take that 7" that the Euro is showing for mby.

[MudCutter]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Could someone post kuchera ratio of the snow totals from the euro? Thanks!

[Hawkeye]

I'll certainly take the 0.40" the euro is spitting out.  I don't see us getting 8 inches from 0.40" precip, though.

[Grizzcoat]

Craig- see above

[Tony]

Will be curious to see how lake influence will affect this storm. All the global models are latching onto this idea which in itself is quite interesting. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Ahhh ok! Well even .30 qpf at temps in the teens will yield to 6 inches! I think it will stack up quicker then most think

[Tom]

For those living near LM, notice those lolipop totals near the lake, esp near Chitown/NW IN...almost all the models have been showing a nice long fetch, down the wide open lake, with crashing 850's....boy, this set up is one I have dreamed of happening. @IllinoisWx, hope this one pans out so you can get a taste of what true LES really looks like in Chicago!

[Tony]

^ Just look at those totals as you go farther east. We need this to go neg tilt closer to our region so we can cash in on some of those numbers.

[Tom]

^ Just look at those totals as you go farther east. We need this to go neg tilt closer to our region so we can cash in on some of those numbers.

I just looked at the 500mb vorticity and it develops a closed circulation in OK the past 2 runs which is a good trend.  We need the driving N stream to phase a little better and it may in fact trend that way as we get closer.  The problem is, the energy shears out as it progresses east and that is something all the models are seeing.

[indianajohn]

If that can only verify.....not too often does Chicago and Us in NWI get to experience a prolonged “ snowbelt” type LES event...

 

For those living near LM, notice those lolipop totals near the lake, esp near Chitown/NW IN...almost all the models have been showing a nice long fetch, down the wide open lake, with crashing 850's....boy, this set up is one I have dream of happening before. @IllinoisWx, hope this one pans out so you can get a taste of what true LES really looks like in Chicago!

[Hoosier]

I would almost bet my life on a decent snow one way or another. I'm rarely this optimistic this far out, but even if the synoptic system doesn't produce much, it's hard to see the lake effect setup fail too.

[Tom]

12z EPS holding steady...locally speaking, if we get anything above .60qpf to verify, that would easily fluff up to 10"+.  The EPS is suggesting .50-.80 qpf for NE IL which is a great number to begin with this far out in an ensemble.  Many of the individual members are showing big hits in the region.  I'm encouraged to see the Euro/EPS continuing to show some consistency for a widespread major winter storm.

 

Below are the 12z EPS and the last map is the Kuchera for the MW region...

[jaster220]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-126-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

 

D*mn! @ OMA

 

Nice run - so much north from a day ago 

[Tony]

12z EPS holding steady...locally speaking, if we get anything above .60qpf to verify, that would easily fluff up to 10"+.  The EPS is suggesting .60-.80qpf for NE IL which is a great number to begin with this far out in an ensemble.  Many of the individual members are showing big hits in the region.  I'm encouraged to see the Euro/EPS continuing to show some consistency for a widespread major winter storm.

 

Below are the 12z EPS and the last map is the Kuchera for the MW region...

Looking very healthy this far out...could easily see it getting stronger/wetter.

[jaster220]

I just looked at the 500mb vorticity and it develops a closed circulation in OK the past 2 runs which is a good trend.  We need the driving N stream to phase a little better and it may in fact trend that way as we get closer.  The problem is, the energy shears out as it progresses east and that is something all the models are seeing.

 

Meaning what exactly, It just scoots eastward quickly vs a slow mover? Seems like the EPS mean is pretty robust as is

[Niko]

Cannot wait to see what models say tomorrow and the day after and so on. Fun week ahead weatherwise.

[Tom]

Meaning what exactly, It just scoots eastward quickly vs a slow mover? Seems like the EPS mean is pretty robust as is

It's really hard to tell how this system will play out.  The majority of the ensemble members do show the storm sorta phasing early, then shearing out but don't necessarily hold a defo band one would like to see.  Nonetheless, there seems to be a lot of juice potential with this one.

[Bryan1117]

D*mn! @ OMA

 

Nice run - so much north from a day ago

Wow, I would gladly take even half of what this is showing.

 

There is definitely a long way to go until we see actual snow fly with this system, however the trends for at least some snow in Eastern Nebraska are looking good right now.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Attention then turns to a potential Saturday winter system. A
pacific wave is expected move over the continental west and will dig
and amplify into the southwest, where the axis of a positively
tilted trough will set up across TX and into Mexico. In response, an
amplified ridge will develop upstream and will push across the Ohio
Valley. This dynamic system will allow a strong baroclinic zone
across the Ohio Valley and an associated strengthening sheared jet
streak north, which will expand into the Great Lakes area. In terms
of impacts for SE MI... Nearly all long range models in good
agreement of seeing snow. Ensemble
guidance in better agreement regarding accumulating snow chance for
SE MI, with higher amounts closer to OH border. However at this
time, spread is still too wide to confidently give snowfall
estimates. Once the wave driving the system moves over the
Continental U.S. by the midweek, better sampling of the system via
observational stations should greatly increase confidence regarding
snowfall potential and amounts.

[Stormhunter87]

The 18z icon looks better but still splits the heaviest amounts around Omaha.

[Tony]

18z GFS a good bit north with precip compared to 12z. Heading in the right direction at least

 

Edit: Looks like a nice swat of snow and a pretty intense LES event to unfold

[Tom]

18z GFS a good bit north with precip compared to 12z. Heading in the right direction at least

 

Edit: Looks like a nice swat of snow and a pretty intense LES event to unfold

I got a good feeling about this LES set up. That lake plume on the backside could be a whicked setup for us. These scenarios literally dump snow and it seems like the lake band takes its time shifting into N IN.

[Tony]

With the GFS going NW this run and a nice slow mover, I would bet that the FV-3 will be one heck of a run.

[Tom]

With the GFS going NW this run and a nice slow mover, I would bet that the FV-3 will be one heck of a run.

Seems like it tries to dig a bit better. A lot of the EPS members were showing this.

[Tony]

I got a good feeling about this LES set up. That lake plume on the backside could be a whicked setup for us. These scenarios literally dump snow and it seems like the lake band takes its time shifting into N IN.

Should also aid in some lake enhancement to add to the totals. As perfect as it can possibly get on our side.

[hlcater]

Where do yall get the FV3 so fast

[Stormhunter87]

Where do yall get the FV3 so fast

Tropical titbits runs it faster than pivotal but pivotal has better maps.

[Grizzcoat]

Someone else on here gets it faster than TT.

[Stormhunter87]

Someone else on here gets it faster than TT.

Oh that probably is a premium service then.

[james1976]

18z GFS looked pretty sold across N IA. If anyone can post a snowfall map I'd greatly appreciate it. Thanks in advance!

[Hawkeye]

Where do yall get the FV3 so fast

 

The earliest you can see it is at NCEP.  In the url, the regular GFS has "mag" while the FV3 has "mageval".

 

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[GDR]

[Stormhunter87]

DCFF31C7-25D2-4F8F-81DD-095ECC837FC0.png

Yuck. North south split with a meet-up in Iowa. That is the very image of the "Omaha dome"

[East Dubzz]

I’d be just fine with the GFS!

 

My fiancée and I have our engagement phots on Saturday afternoon. We’ve been hoping that there would be snow on the ground, so all I need is a few inches of fresh snow for that to work perfectly. Just 2-3” would be more than ideal!

[Niko]

Hopefully, we can get a negative tilt w this storm and have it move SW-NE movement, instead of W-E. Once that piece of energy moves ashore, models will get a better handle on this.

[jaster220]

Per Hoosier

 

 

The CIPS analog list is a who's who.  108 hours has the following storms on the list:  VD 2007, GHD 2011, Jan 99, PD II.