Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[VMB443]

0z hrrr and still snowing

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012200&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

Yes please.

[gosaints]

You aint kidding!!

Right north of the NAM but jumped south.

[Grizzcoat]

Well the RDPS was one of the derivatives that OMA was banking on-- and others offices I sure ; It's now flipped.

[bud2380]

Extreme cutoff in Johnson County IA on the RGEM. Wow

[james1976]

Anyone have the RGEM?  Thanks!

[gosaints]

Really slowedd

 

Well the RDPS was one of the derivatives that OMA was banking on-- and others offices I sure ; It's now flipped.

Someone was putting out a forecast based on the RGEM???

[Money]

RGEM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012200&fh=39&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=rdps

 

Through 15z Wed

[Madtown]

wow...NAM Euro and now for the most part GFS are on board with a good snow here...the hi res stuff is all in agreement we get plastered. unreal from 24hrs ago!

[East Dubzz]

I figured this storm would have a late curveball. Just didn’t know if it’d be good or bad.

[Grizzcoat]

Still +SN in S.WI-

[Hawkeye]

Extreme cutoff in Johnson County IA on the RGEM. Wow

 

Yeah, but it's a significant shift south, so I'd still be feeling pretty good if I was in IC/NL.

[jcwxguy]

Rgem

[Stormhunter87]

Weeee I had a feeling of a surprise was not wrong. Let's see this play out now

[Iowawx]

Yeah, but it's a significant shift south, so I'd still be feeling pretty good if I was in IC/NL.

I think you said CR would probably only get 1-2 inches from this earlier today. Are you ready to change that?

[Grizzcoat]

Really slowedd

 

Someone was putting out a forecast based on the RGEM???

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

450 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

 

The going forecast

continues to favor the GFS/Canadian (and their derivatives), with

the slower and further south ECMWF deterministic run continuing

to be an outlier as of 12Z model runs.

 

I doubt they bothered to look at or respect the 18Z GFS

[gosaints]

Well even if this things ends up skirting south of here it is a breath of fresh air to see a storm slow down a bit and deliver some goods

[Money]

Well even if this things ends up skirting south of here it is a breath of fresh air to see a storm slow down a bit and deliver some goods

I feel good about this one

[gosaints]

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

450 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

 

The going forecast

continues to favor the GFS/Canadian (and their derivatives), with

the slower and further south ECMWF deterministic run continuing

to be an outlier as of 12Z model runs.

The canadian should be considered a perpetual outlier

[Madtown]

MKX disco no chNhes to headlines till the overnight shift takes a peek at things. People are not expecting a storm here and the start time is horrible. Kids will all be sent to school. Snow starts at 9:30am and it's a mess/dangerous getting everyone home in SN+.Boarderline irresponsible in my opinion. We shall see.

[Stormhunter87]

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

450 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

 

The going forecast

continues to favor the GFS/Canadian (and their derivatives), with

the slower and further south ECMWF deterministic run continuing

to be an outlier as of 12Z model runs.

They definitely want to play it safe if they were going with those runs.

[gosaints]

I feel good about this one

As you should

[Wartburger]

Looks to me like it's not a southern shift that is happening, it's more a broader swath of snow that is probably from the cooler temperatures.  I doubt we see as much rain/freezing rain in the areas that are now seeing snow.

 

My forecast has yet to change for my area further North in Iowa.  Southern shift would have decreased my totals.

[Grizzcoat]

SREF plumes on the rise....

[james1976]

Those N and S cutoffs....dayum

[jaster220]

Too bad no other model looks like this for SMI

 

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc starting to buy in. They have shifted their maps a little. Definitely not playing out how gridded so far. We are at 24 degrees and should be at 29.

[james1976]

Looks to me like it's not a southern shift that is happening, it's more a broader swath of snow that is probably from the cooler temperatures.  I doubt we see as much rain/freezing rain in the areas that are now seeing snow.

 

My forecast has yet to change for my area further North in Iowa.  Southern shift would have decreased my totals.

Agreed. My temp was 15 at suppertime and its now 13. Was supposed to slowly rise.

[Tom]

RPM spitting out 5" for McHenry and about 1.5" for ORD...Lake/McHenry and points NW of the city do very well...

[BMT]

Terry already mentioned more snow, he’s coming up next.

[Madtown]

Sitting at 13 here as well

[East Dubzz]

MKX disco no chNhes to headlines till the overnight shift takes a peek at things. People are not expecting a storm here and the start time is horrible. Kids will all be sent to school. Snow starts at 9:30am and it's a mess/dangerous getting everyone home in SN+.Boarderline irresponsible in my opinion. We shall see.

Irresponsible, IMO, is jumping on things without being able to take them in fully. It sucks for them, but it makes sense to wait.

[bud2380]

Terry already mentioned more snow, he’s coming up next.

I’m not able to watch but I’d be interested to hear what he has to say.

[Grizzcoat]

If you look at surface map temps in SE IA into IL -- the  forecasted WAA is not happening. At least not yet. Snowpack playing a factor?

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON also south, although it continues to be disheveled and weak with the cold sector precip.

 

 

I think you said CR would probably only get 1-2 inches from this earlier today. Are you ready to change that?

 

Well, sure, I can't ignore the trend.  I'm not jumping on the 10" bandwagon, but several inches is now in play.

 

 

[jlp]

What time does the snow let up in SE Wisconsin?

[Madtown]

Irresponsible, IMO, is jumping on things without being able to take them in fully. It sucks for them, but it makes sense to wait.

I am not saying they need to go all in, but do something with your watches.

[Iowawx]

KFXA in Cedar Rapids now says 4-7 inches for Cedar Rapids.

[gosaints]

If you look at surface map temps in SE IA into IL -- the  forecasted WAA is not happening. At least not yet. Snowpack playing a factor?

I am sure the snow pack is playing factor, but I also think it is taking the storm longer to get going and eject.... 

[WBadgersW]

IMO MKX should have mentioned the rising possibility of a significant snowfall. We went from 6-8" to 5-7" to 3-6" to 2-6". People are not expecting more than 3" here.

[Tony]

*cough* Euro called it *cough*

You also have to give credit to the Ukie ad that model has been the farthest South of all modeling