Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[Iowawx]

I'm not feeling good about this weak cutter.  Like hlcater, I'd hate to see rain ruin the insulating snow ahead of the arctic cold.

How could you not feel good about it? The GFS and Euro have CR getting all snow. 12Z GFS had CR right in the heaviest of the snow. 

[BrianJK]

Actually, there is over .50” of rain across N IL...

Right now yes, but hoping for either a weaker solution and/or more southerly track.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nebraskans should like the 18z Icon run. Nice storm shaping up if this verifies.

[Stormhunter87]

Nebraskans should like the 18z Icon run. Nice storm shaping up if this verifies.

Warm slotted here based on the icon, nam completely disagreeing. Should be fun . Edit: decent track for us based on the nam but doesn't place the bands well. Sigh

[Grizzcoat]

[hlcater]

Slight 25 mile tick south on the GFS. 

[VMB443]

MKX suggesting 3-5 for us, kind of surprised they are already putting numbers to it, their afternoon forecast discussion seems fairly confident at this point that we are going to have a decent snow event, more than I would say is usual for them still three days out.

[Grizzcoat]

If this dumps a plowable amount on some of the same areas that just got hit here in Central to Southern IA-- A LOT of people are going to cry uncle and say / think this has been a long winter. With little to no memory how it was up till Jan 12-13th.

[St Paul Storm]

18z GFS with a bit more juice area wide. I’m thinking 0.5” total snow here. Being stuck between 2 areas of forcing is rarely a good spot to be. Prove me wrong, Ma Nature.

[snowstorm83]

I'd be happy with 2-4" here after yesterday's failure. Just really want something on top of this old crust and mud now. 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX blending the 12Z GFS and NAM-- no clue how that just = FZDZ and PL in C.IA - but hey - they could be right. Zero mention of the Euro.

[Grizzcoat]

12Z Euro Kuchera -

[clintbeed1993]

Thanks for not forgetting about me.  I've been missed in literally every direction this entire winter. I haven't had a snowpack above 2 inches at any 1 time and it's been extremely disheartening.

[Grizzcoat]

UKMET at HR 72-- 850 and 2M from what I can tell would favor mostly SN. if anyone has precip maps past 72 that would be great--

[Grizzcoat]

[GDR]

[jcwxguy]

UKMET at HR 72-- 850 and 2M from what I can tell would favor mostly SN. if anyone has precip maps past 72 that would be great--P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Minny_Weather]

I'd be happy with 2-4" here after yesterday's failure. Just really want something on top of this old crust and mud now.

I just want to cover the thinned out areas/areas of bare ground that have developed for some reason. What we have now would be better than bare grass for the upcoming cold spell, but still not ideal.

[jaster220]

12km wants to spare those of us east the full-monte liquid rinse-off of our fresh snow blanket. Hope it's a trend

 

[Grizzcoat]

[jaster220]

Keeps the liquid stuff south of the state line.

 

[jcwxguy]

00z nam close up

[jaster220]

GEFS seem set on a Chicago to Georgian Bay track for the SLP, so it'll come down to low-level cold to save SMI from the total warm rainer scene.

 

 

Meanwhile, GGEM gives me some front-end snow followed by plain rain fwiw

 

[jaster220]

00z nam close up

 

Hard to tell what's noise from the current system here. Be tomorrow's maps til it's more clear I guess

[St Paul Storm]

screw zone. Pound town north and south. But I’d take it I guess.

[jcwxguy]

Hard to tell what's noise from the current system here. Be tomorrow's maps til it's more clear I guess

here is a fix, add both together

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Icon with another great run from Southwest to Central to Northeast Nebraska. Time frame is late Monday through most of Tuesday.

[Stormhunter87]

Nam keeping the good band north. 4 inches ain't bad though.

[jcwxguy]

18z euro

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Icon

[St Paul Storm]

^ the ICON seems to be a little tipsy tonight. That map isn’t even close to any other models. At least not up this way.

[jaster220]

here is a fix, add both together

 

Thx. I guess I was thinking more subtraction, lol but I see how those 24 hr increments could work. Question is how much of the h72 map south of the snow line is rain or at least other than snow? I don't know if there's a way to "parse" precip types for a given model run? Obviously the NAM is the cold and snowier solution outlier for SMI at this point. Just hafta hope it's leading the way. I was fully expecting to lose a good bit of my fresh snow vs adding to it. Would be a huge win if NAM's leading on this.

[hlcater]

Icon is cutting the storm too hard. Per storm disclaimer that the icon sucks.

[St Paul Storm]

GFS stronger and north through hr 54. Reverting back to its stronger runs.

[Grizzcoat]

Good run for IA

[Grizzcoat]

[Iowawx]

Areas north of interstate 80 in Iowa look good for this. 

[hlcater]

Looks like rain in CR that run. Positively awful.

[jaster220]

Icon is cutting the storm too hard. Per storm disclaimer that the icon sucks.

 

LOL, then has a coastal low at h177 - THE GULF COAST

[Iowawx]

Looks like rain in CR that run. Positively awful.

Looks like the GFS has freezing rain to start then snow on the backside. Really only a 15 mile shift south puts CR in the heaviest band of snow.