Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[gosaints]

[Hawkeye]

12z euro not as sw/extreme as 00z, but still great.

[St Paul Storm]

You’re gonna get whacked.

[BMT]

Holy arctic outbreak after this storm on the euro....

[hlcater]

Holy arctic outbreak after this storm on the euro....

-40*c across Iowa on 168. Wow.

[Stacsh]

No offense, but that’s not exactly what I was talking about.

 

Haha I know.  Just I'm finally excited here in Michigan.  Been a dud of a winter here.  This is really getting my hopes up.  

[snowstorm83]

Super tight gradient with the extreme cold near the Nebraska/Iowa border. From record shattering cold to moderately below average in a fairly short distance.

[East Dubzz]

The cold the GFS shows after the passing of this clipper is just insane lol

[Yerf]

[Money]

Looks like euro is .8-1.0 qpf for N IL

 

.4-.6 in IA/WI and MN

[james1976]

Tom is gonna get rocked. How's the LES signal?

[Money]

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190129-1200z.html

 

Subtract about .1-.2 of this in WI/IL from today’s storm

[East Dubzz]

I’m in a great spot this far out??

 

This is sure to end well...

[gosaints]

wherever the pivot ends up will be the jack....

[Tom]

Tom is gonna get rocked. How's the LES signal?

Hard to say at this point but with temps so cold I’d imagine they will trend better as we get closer in time. Ideally, Chitown needs a track into C IL for a good Lehs set up and then the backend LES signal.

[Niko]

This clipper has great potential....and then, the true Arctic Express roars in (coldest of the season most likely). It will be absolutely brutal, almost near or if not as cold as 2013-14' season.

[gosaints]

This clipper has great potential....and then, the true Arctic Express roars in (coldest of the season most likely). It will be absolutely brutal, almost near or if not as cold as 2013-14' season.

GFS mex has lows in the mid 20's below zero a week from now.  Quite a strong signal.  If the clipper is as strong as advertised it should be some impressive cold

[Niko]

GFS mex has lows in the mid 20's below zero a week from now.  Quite a strong signal.  If the clipper is as strong as advertised it should be some impressive cold

The temps are going to be extremely low and w that snowcover around once the clipper passes, its going to feel like Barrow, AK.

[Stormgeek]

GFS 12z (using kuchera) rocks us here. Would be more than happy to just have an event where we get 4 inches and temps aren't 32 at the onset. However, could do without this insane cold due to work concerns.

[gosaints]

GFS 12z (using kuchera) rocks us here. Would be more than happy to just have an event where we get 4 inches and temps aren't 32 at the onset. However, could do without this insane cold due to work concerns.

 

The vortex signal on the EPS shouldnt be ingnored.  We have seen cold show up in the long range only to go away. I think this one could come through

[Minny_Weather]

Super tight gradient with the extreme cold near the Nebraska/Iowa border. From record shattering cold to moderately below average in a fairly short distance.

We'll be lucky to even get below zero while people a 90 minute drive East will be in the double digits below zero. Wow.

[St Paul Storm]

Regardless of where the best snows hit, it looks like most of us might take a direct hit with the brutal cold. St Paul schools might not even be closed though. Gotta hit a WC of -40F.

[Sciascia]

From LOT:

 

The timeframe of highest concern for potentially significant (6"+)

snow accumulations is Sunday night through Monday. Models and

ensembles are in unusually good agreement this far out in a strong

clipper/Pacific hybrid type system affecting the region. This

system will have a very impressive thermal gradient/baroclinic

zone to work with, along with possibly up to 150-200% of typical

PWAT for late January, also eye-openingi considering the cold

antecedent air mass. Ultimately the track of the system will

dictate who gets how much snow, but felt comfortable with the

categorical PoPs in blended guidance given strong guidance

agreement. A somewhat northward displaced track could even

introduce p-type concerns into portions of the area considering

aforementioned thermal gradient over the region, with a low track

over northern IL favoring Wisconsin for highest snowfall. It also

appears that it will become windy/breezy with the snow, so

blowing/drifting snow could become an issue. We will certainly be

watching this period closely.

 

Finally, in the wake of the potential Sunday night-Monday snow

event, the concern is what could be a brutally cold shot of Arctic

air in the middle of next work week. While the GFS suite of

guidance is cold, the ECMWF/ensemble suite is particularly

concerning for extreme/record cold. To highlight this, the

ensemble mean of 51 member European ensemble is indicating 850 mb

temperature anomalies of 20+ degrees Celsius below normal next

Wednesday. If a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex can move

over the region as shown on the 12z operational ECMWF, that would

help maximize how cold it gets. Still plenty of time for changes

in this period, but even less cold GFS suite would favor some type

of wind chill headlines next Tuesday night through Wednesday

night.

[hlcater]

The forecaster on the DVN long range desk this afternoon is *very* excited. Excerpt from perhaps the longest AFD I've ever read from them.

 

 

 

Tuesday through Wednesday: In the wake of this system (and the much
deeper snowpack that will be in place) this will set the stage for
brutally cold arctic airmass to plunge southward into the Midwest.
If the ECMWF is correct this may be historic (record) cold as the
POLAR VORTEX drops into the Great Lakes region. 850 mb temperatures
drop to an incredible -34 to -36c down to northern IL!. The GFS is
not as brutal keeping the vortex up towards James Bay with 850 mb
temps only to -26c. Either way you look at it this will be extreme
cold with record temperatures possible. The grids indicate lows well
below zero early Thursday morning, as low as 20 below in our north.
However, this is heavily weighted on the GFS model, so if the ECMWF
is correct it will be much colder than currently forecast, possibly
to 30 below zero or colder ambient temperature!

[hlcater]

GFS coming in a good bit north.

[jaster220]

This might be the first storm thread this whole season that I won't be a part of. What a Winter.

 

This might just be "the one" 

[Iowawx]

That’s an awful GFS run. It has rain in Iowa and also across northern Illinois.

[Money]

GFS coming in a good bit north.

Yup

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012318&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Money]

-20 to -25 for high temps on gfs following the clipper

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019012318&fh=168&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[East Dubzz]

That’s an awful GFS run. It has rain in Iowa and also across northern Illinois.

Yeah, but it’s one run. As long as this doesn’t start a trend of it going more and more north, it’s no biggie.

[Bellona]

GFS must have drank the kool-aid on that run. My forecast high that day is 11. Better hope it doesn't rain at 11.

[Minny_Weather]

That’s an awful GFS run. It has rain in Iowa and also across northern Illinois.

North Dakota too though. That isn't happening.

[East Dubzz]

-20 to -25 for high temps on gfs following the clipper

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019012318&fh=168&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

Wind chill of -58 here in Dubuque on Wednesday morning that run. Hahaha holy Christ

[East Dubzz]

GFS must have drank the kool-aid on that run. My forecast high that day is 11. Better hope it doesn't rain at 11.

That’s not how it works. The warmer temps would be if the storm was further north, drawing in warmer air.

[Money]

Wind chill of -58 here in Dubuque on Wednesday morning that run. Hahaha holy Christ

Thursday Morning it’s -55 for you again. Lows of -30

[St Paul Storm]

Mid -60F WC in C MN with temps in the mid -30F. Man that’s good stuff.

[gosaints]

Mid -60F WC in C MN with temps in the mid -30F. Man that’s good stuff.

gonna be a lot of polar vortex talk if models hold through the weekend

[East Dubzz]

gonna be a lot of polar vortex talk if models hold through the weekend

That’s what I live for right there

[Bellona]

That’s not how it works. The warmer temps would be if the storm was further north, drawing in warmer air.

I realize that, thanks. I'm saying I doubt it be warm enough at the surface for rain. Highs would have to be raised over 20 degrees to have liquid rain.

[St Paul Storm]

gonna be a lot of polar vortex talk if models hold through the weekend

For sure. Gonna need some of this snow to pan out to reach these potential temps. At least here. 1” of snow OTG isn’t gonna cut it.