Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[Money]

RAP looks a lot like 18z nam

 

Wide snow band of 12-18

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012719&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[East Dubzz]

Sign me up for that! Would love to get 6+ out of this, though I’m still expecting 4-6.

[St Paul Storm]

Looking at the 18zNAM, it’s showing snow moving into NW MN at 22z in places where its currently snowing. Caution

[gosaints]

Looking at the 18zNAM, it’s showing snow moving into NW MN at 22z in places where its currently snowing. Caution

agree always cautious with the NAM. But at the same time WAA wings often arrive ahead of schedule and east of guidance.

[St Paul Storm]

agree always cautious with the NAM. But at the same time WAA wings often arrive ahead of schedule and east of guidance.

Yeah for sure.

 

3km gonna slam job.

[Tony]

Just catching up on the model runs today and quite interesting. Heavy snow setup with windy conditions could see some areas have blizzard conditions. Nice to see a wide band of warning snows from this system. Wonder what other surprises we will see from this storm but it is very impresdive

[Sciascia]

Yeah for sure.

 

3km gonna slam job.

Take a look at this. That would be fun to see verify.

[james1976]

Clouds have thickened up here and already a couple flakes falling. Wow. Def saturated.

[gosaints]

If radar looks like the 3km NAM later on not gonna be sleeping through that

[St Paul Storm]

MPX just upped the point to 7-12”.

[Stormgeek]

Is it just me or does it seem like the NAMily is underplaying that snow shield in North MN / East ND?

[Money]

Icon also came in stronger with more qpf

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the DVN upgraded a couple counties to a winter storm warning.

[james1976]

Steady light snow falling here already. Im impressed cuz radar is showing very light returns only.

[Grizzcoat]

Wow- mid to upper 50's now in S. Central Neb.

[Iowawx]

GFS took another small shift south.

[james1976]

Wow- mid to upper 50's now in S. Central Neb.

A lot of ingredients

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow- mid to upper 50's now in S. Central Neb.

52 degrees. Lovely. Though I would love to have some of that snow, you can keep the record cold east of here. No thanks.

[East Dubzz]

Snow looks to be like the 9pm to 6am timeframe around here. So assuming this thing pans out, I’m guessing no school for the kids again. And definitely won’t have it wednesay or Thursday. Gonna have a lot to make up just from last week and this week!

[Iowawx]

GFS has 6.9 inches in CR. Lock it in!

[Grizzcoat]

GFS took another small shift south.

Big shift for some. Especially just NE of DSM which would be borderline Warning material.

[james1976]

Anyone have a GFS snowfall map?

[Iowawx]

18Z GFS. This is Iowa snow totals. Still snowing east of Mississippi River.

[Stormgeek]

GFS running away from MSP and the NAM's/HRRR holding pretty steady. Model chaos when event is almost starting!

[james1976]

Snow looks to be like the 9pm to 6am timeframe around here. So assuming this thing pans out, I’m guessing no school for the kids again. And definitely won’t have it wednesay or Thursday. Gonna have a lot to make up just from last week and this week!

Might be sooner than 9pm for you. Already started here

[St Paul Storm]

GFS running away from MSP and the NAM's/HRRR holding pretty steady. Model chaos when event is almost starting!

We’re outside of global model time. Go with the short term models and radar. Everyone else south and east of us is still hanging on globals since the system is still a ways out for many of them.

 

The sun has disappeared. Snow quickly advancing in.

[Stormgeek]

We’re outside of global model time. Go with the short term models and radar. Everyone else south and east of us is still hanging on globals since the system is still a ways out for many of them.

The sun has disappeared. Snow quickly advancing in.

Ah, thanks for the clarification!

[East Dubzz]

DVN now has me in the 6-8” range.

[Hawkeye]

The HRRR has stabilized at about 0.25-0.30" for Cedar Rapids.  I'm expecting about 3 inches.

[bud2380]

Getting some on and off again mixed precip

[East Dubzz]

HRRR dropping over .50” on DBQ, with Kuchera equating to over 7”... I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s encouraging nonetheless.

 

Actually, the latest run has 8.2”.... lets make it happen.

[SE Wisconsin]

AFD from MKX is almost jaw dropping!  Lots of closings already in the Milwaukee area for tomorrow.

Including most of the government offices for the city of Milwaukee.
 

QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow

rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will

cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the

Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of

snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of

highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the

northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and

around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and

Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts

just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom

line, widespread heavy snow is expected.
 

Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front

counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now,

Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher

amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall

around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized.

 

 
 

QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow

rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will

cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the

Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of

snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of

highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the

northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and

around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and

Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts

just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom

line, widespread heavy snow is expected.
 

Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front

counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now,

Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher

amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall

around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized.

 

[BMT]

Current radar appears to be a bit further south than current HRRR run. (Specifically looking in western Iowa)

[james1976]

Impressive looking radar

[james1976]

Had a bit of light snow a while ago....then a lil break....and now the real deal is just starting. Let's go

[Money]

Current radar appears to be a bit further south than current HRRR run. (Specifically looking in western Iowa)

Not true

[BMT]

Not true

Don’t worry money, not trying to take your snow. Just making an observation for us Iowans. And it clearly reaches further southwest than 22z run.

[BMT]

James- how’s the snow up there? Coming down good?

[Money]

Don’t worry money, not trying to take your snow. Just making an observation for us Iowans. And it clearly reaches further southwest than 22z run.

The HRRR run is matching up well in Iowa. Look at 0z (2 hours out on the 22z run) and its identical

[hlcater]

The HRRR run is matching up well in Iowa. Look at 0z (2 hours out on the 22z run) and its identical

The HRRR is a tad strong with the surface low per mesoanalysis. HRRR is initialized at 993mb but 00z mesoanalysis has a 996mb low ever so slightly to the west and south of the 23z HRRR at FH001. Suggesting that the HRRR is definitely a bit strong right now and perhaps a hair east, though not really enough to be noteworthy.