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February 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Is Mother Nature continuing her onslaught of Winter Wx this month???  Is there a relaxation period forthcoming after a ferocious 2-week period from late Jan into early Feb???  Where will the storm track set up this month and will there be periods where powerful storms will develop???  Is the SER going to pay dividends yet again???   IMHO, as a whole, this will likely end up being the highlight month of the entire met Winter season.  Let's begin to discuss what will be a wild month of winter wx....

 

First off, the CFSv2 trends are eye popping of late, suggesting a nation to be engulfed in cold and a signal for a wet pattern setting up shop across the majority of our sub...guess where...yup, the "Heartland of the Nation"!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20190123.201902.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201902.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.gif

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The signal off the climate models is amazing for this to be a fun month of storm tracking.  I know its the Brazilian, but I use this as guidance, based off the last 4 runs, I think its pretty wild to see almost daily chances of snow in Feb and it doesn't, stop, there....

 

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012112/08808W4158N.png

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012100/08808W4158N.png

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012012/08808W4158N.png

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012000/08808W4158N.png

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The LRC would suggest a nice storm the first week of February. The FV3 shows one, and it should be interesting to follow over the next week.  Bring on the cold!

Indeed and also the fun tracking as well. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm not a fan. We're on the edge of the tongue which means NW flow for here. That always ends up either at or slightly below normal here with no precip other than a clipper if we're lucky. No thanks.

Correct.  We will want the pattern to change to more of a southwest flow.  Seems we usually get more into that pattern as February approaches.

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Correct.  We will want the pattern to change to more of a southwest flow.  Seems we usually get more into that pattern as February approaches.

Not if Euro weeklies have any say. We're in NW flow for a good part of the month. That basically means no precip other than a clipper if we get lucky enough to actually cash in on one of those. Only positive is it looks rather cold so if I am super duper lucky this snowpack should last for a while.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The FV3 continues to show an end to the NW flow beginning the first week of Feb.  Also puts a nice storm in the middle of the country right on schedule.  I'm expecting some good things out of this one!

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

 

Yes sir!  There is some model volatility during the first week of this month but the key will be the -AO/-NAO which will allow the PAC jet to target farther south into CA/SW as we get out of the NW Flow and the pattern at 500mb relaxes and turns more zonal.  Last nights 00z EPS is starting to trend better Week 1-2 for the heartland.  This is going to be a Big month in the snow dept.

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The FV3 continues to show an end to the NW flow beginning the first week of Feb.  Also puts a nice storm in the middle of the country right on schedule.  I'm expecting some good things out of this one!

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Looks like a healthy looking, potent storm. Look out!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yes sir!  There is some model volatility during the first week of this month but the key will be the -AO/-NAO which will allow the PAC jet to target farther south into CA/SW as we get out of the NW Flow and the pattern at 500mb relaxes and turns more zonal.  Last nights 00z EPS is starting to trend better Week 1-2 for the heartland.  This is going to be a Big month in the snow dept.

That is the location of a low that we love around here.  Bring it on for Super Bowl Sunday.

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February will start off bitterly cold w a snowpack around. Lets see what it has to offer.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z GFS with a massive storm over the plains in a week. That would be wonderful. Just 9 days out.

I think that one is going to be a Colorado Low.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You’re right. Has that look doesn’t it.

You bet and it could be a doozy of a storm.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The longer range period has been fluctuating on the models.  It had looked pretty mild, but now the GFS only has one day of mild(Groundhog Day), followed by more cold and stormy.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GFS run. Holy smokes. Yes please.

If it verifies, then, dang!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Euro is crazy.  A couple runs ago, it had Cedar Rapids remaining below zero until Sunday, Feb 3.  Today's 12z run has Cedar Rapids hitting 60 degrees!!! on Monday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The snow pack is going to take a hit the first few days of February.  It's just a question of how big of one.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Look at this 12Z GFS run Nebraskans. Holy cow. Fantasy numbers but at least it looks like there will be multiple chances in the future.attachicon.gif0215BE6E-8CD0-4FCB-A09C-AD1ECF29FE5C.gif

My friend, this is going to be a BIG month in the snow depth.  After a "brief" warm up to open the month, the STJ will be raging early on this month and if things play out the way I think it will, there will undoubtedly be a massive "Heartland Glacier" this month.

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My friend, this is going to be a BIG month in the snow depth. After a "brief" warm up to open the month, the STJ will be raging early on this month and if things play out the way I think it will, there will undoubtedly be a massive "Heartland Glacier" this month.

You’ve been calling this for a long time Tom. That would be a tremendous glacier.

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Euro says four straight days above to well-above freezing(even at night) ending with a strong, mild, rainy system.  If this actually verifies, I don't think we'll have much snow left.  We had better enjoy what we have now.   :(

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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