Tom Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Is Mother Nature continuing her onslaught of Winter Wx this month??? Is there a relaxation period forthcoming after a ferocious 2-week period from late Jan into early Feb??? Where will the storm track set up this month and will there be periods where powerful storms will develop??? Is the SER going to pay dividends yet again??? IMHO, as a whole, this will likely end up being the highlight month of the entire met Winter season. Let's begin to discuss what will be a wild month of winter wx.... First off, the CFSv2 trends are eye popping of late, suggesting a nation to be engulfed in cold and a signal for a wet pattern setting up shop across the majority of our sub...guess where...yup, the "Heartland of the Nation"! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20190123.201902.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201902.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.gif 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The signal off the climate models is amazing for this to be a fun month of storm tracking. I know its the Brazilian, but I use this as guidance, based off the last 4 runs, I think its pretty wild to see almost daily chances of snow in Feb and it doesn't, stop, there.... http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012112/08808W4158N.pnghttp://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012100/08808W4158N.pnghttp://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012012/08808W4158N.pnghttp://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2019012000/08808W4158N.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The LRC would suggest a nice storm the first week of February. The FV3 shows one, and it should be interesting to follow over the next week. Bring on the cold! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Looks like an amazing end to January. Globals seem to have a relaxation of the cold as we enter the first week of February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 February looks to enter wild. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The LRC would suggest a nice storm the first week of February. The FV3 shows one, and it should be interesting to follow over the next week. Bring on the cold!Indeed and also the fun tracking as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I'm not a fan. We're on the edge of the tongue which means NW flow for here. That always ends up either at or slightly below normal here with no precip other than a clipper if we're lucky. No thanks. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I'm not a fan. We're on the edge of the tongue which means NW flow for here. That always ends up either at or slightly below normal here with no precip other than a clipper if we're lucky. No thanks.Correct. We will want the pattern to change to more of a southwest flow. Seems we usually get more into that pattern as February approaches. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Correct. We will want the pattern to change to more of a southwest flow. Seems we usually get more into that pattern as February approaches.Not if Euro weeklies have any say. We're in NW flow for a good part of the month. That basically means no precip other than a clipper if we get lucky enough to actually cash in on one of those. Only positive is it looks rather cold so if I am super duper lucky this snowpack should last for a while. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 . Out to feb 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 The FV3 continues to show an end to the NW flow beginning the first week of Feb. Also puts a nice storm in the middle of the country right on schedule. I'm expecting some good things out of this one! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 The FV3 continues to show an end to the NW flow beginning the first week of Feb. Also puts a nice storm in the middle of the country right on schedule. I'm expecting some good things out of this one! Yes sir! There is some model volatility during the first week of this month but the key will be the -AO/-NAO which will allow the PAC jet to target farther south into CA/SW as we get out of the NW Flow and the pattern at 500mb relaxes and turns more zonal. Last nights 00z EPS is starting to trend better Week 1-2 for the heartland. This is going to be a Big month in the snow dept. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 The FV3 continues to show an end to the NW flow beginning the first week of Feb. Also puts a nice storm in the middle of the country right on schedule. I'm expecting some good things out of this one!Looks like a healthy looking, potent storm. Look out! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yes sir! There is some model volatility during the first week of this month but the key will be the -AO/-NAO which will allow the PAC jet to target farther south into CA/SW as we get out of the NW Flow and the pattern at 500mb relaxes and turns more zonal. Last nights 00z EPS is starting to trend better Week 1-2 for the heartland. This is going to be a Big month in the snow dept.That is the location of a low that we love around here. Bring it on for Super Bowl Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks like a healthy looking, potent storm. Look outYes and the jet stream will be hitting it's peak strength. Could be really strong if the AO is deep negative. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Some ensembles are taking the AO deep negative, but these forecast aren't worth much past 5 days and I think are nearly impossible to predict.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 February looks frigid and stormy. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The 12Z FV3 GFS has that storm again around Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 3 to Monday the 4th. Storm seems to come and go on the models. Something to look at in the extended since it will be very boring around here for the next week it looks like 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 February will start off bitterly cold w a snowpack around. Lets see what it has to offer. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z GFS with a massive storm over the plains in a week. That would be wonderful. Just 9 days out. I think that one is going to be a Colorado Low. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 I think that one is going to be a Colorado Low.You’re right. Has that look doesn’t it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 TWC just showed nothing but mild air for super bowl weekend.....not that i believe it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 You’re right. Has that look doesn’t it.You bet and it could be a doozy of a storm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 You bet and it could be a doozy of a storm.12z GFS run. Holy smokes. Yes please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 The longer range period has been fluctuating on the models. It had looked pretty mild, but now the GFS only has one day of mild(Groundhog Day), followed by more cold and stormy. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z GFS run. Holy smokes. Yes please.If it verifies, then, dang! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 The Euro is crazy. A couple runs ago, it had Cedar Rapids remaining below zero until Sunday, Feb 3. Today's 12z run has Cedar Rapids hitting 60 degrees!!! on Monday. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS is the only good model for here for the super bowl storm. FV3 makes it an ice storm for here, and Euro makes it a rain event for here and basically everyone else on this sub. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 TWC still on the warm train for super bowl weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 The snow pack is going to take a hit the first few days of February. It's just a question of how big of one. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wow it’s going to feel like a sauna around that time frame compared to what it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 We will have to have patience around here as we miss most all of the action this week. Looks like potentially next week February 4th and beyond, gets cold and stormy on the Plains. 12Z GFS showing that. Our snow is taking a beating lately and right now in the mid 40’s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Look at this 12Z GFS run Nebraskans. Holy cow. Fantasy numbers but at least it looks like there will be multiple chances in the future. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Look at this 12Z GFS run Nebraskans. Holy cow. Fantasy numbers but at least it looks like there will be multiple chances in the future.0215BE6E-8CD0-4FCB-A09C-AD1ECF29FE5C.gifMy friend, this is going to be a BIG month in the snow depth. After a "brief" warm up to open the month, the STJ will be raging early on this month and if things play out the way I think it will, there will undoubtedly be a massive "Heartland Glacier" this month. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 My friend, this is going to be a BIG month in the snow depth. After a "brief" warm up to open the month, the STJ will be raging early on this month and if things play out the way I think it will, there will undoubtedly be a massive "Heartland Glacier" this month.You’ve been calling this for a long time Tom. That would be a tremendous glacier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 You call for that in the middle of August, as well. Nothing new.Welcome! I don’t think I’ve seen you post on here. Been on here for a while? Where from? I’m on my mobile so don’t see your location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Euro says four straight days above to well-above freezing(even at night) ending with a strong, mild, rainy system. If this actually verifies, I don't think we'll have much snow left. We had better enjoy what we have now. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.