Jump to content

February 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Good news with all of the cold and stormy weather being east of Central Nebraska, as I see school closures the last month or so, our school has had 2 late starts this year.  We would need an epic flip of the pattern to have to ever worry about making up days.  They usually build in 4 days along with a couple of late starts.  Our last day is May 16th and by that time of year the kids are ready to be done and not make up days into late May.  I have talked to some relatives that live in Illinois and Missouri and they are sure their school year will be extended as they have missed multiple days, and they already go until late May with their normal schedule, so possibly into June if the next 2 months stay stormy there.  Just my 2 cents as we are at school on time.  Yea.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the warm-up next week might be a little too warm as temps near 50F w some rainfall. Yikes, I would hate to see my snowpack lessen to some degree, but, at least its not going to be a long stretch of mild air. Hopefully, snowstorms return down the road in February. Although, it is looking active and much colder by midweek of next week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news with all of the cold and stormy weather being east of Central Nebraska, as I see school closures the last month or so, our school has had 2 late starts this year.  We would need an epic flip of the pattern to have to ever worry about making up days.  They usually build in 4 days along with a couple of late starts.  Our last day is May 16th and by that time of year the kids are ready to be done and not make up days into late May.  I have talked to some relatives that live in Illinois and Missouri and they are sure their school year will be extended as they have missed multiple days, and they already go until late May with their normal schedule, so possibly into June if the next 2 months stay stormy there.  Just my 2 cents as we are at school on time.  Yea.

Our district built in 2 days. Today is day 5 and tomorrow will be 6. Yes my kids will be going into June.

And those days were all either this week or last week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our district built in 2 days. Today is day 5 and tomorrow will be 6. Yes my kids will be going into June.

And those days were all either this week or last week

Nothing worse than making up days when the weather is warm.  Both students and teachers are ready to be done.  Nice to have a day off once and awhile for a snow day, but 5 or 6 is a lot.  Our school district a few years ago decided we would begin school years the middle of August (used to be anywhere from Aug. 21-27) so we would be done by the middle of May.  I was talking to my students this morning and though they always hope for a snow day, they said they don't want to have to worry about going past May 16th.  Hopefully though we have a big storm or two in our future.  Blizzard of 2016 we missed 3 1/2 days in the same week.  Usually we never miss more than 2 days, rural community with lots of snow removal equipment, tractors and loaders.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(3) rainers per that same model for SMI, then it's already mid-Feb. Not gonna lie, it's a La Nino mess of a season - wash, rinse, repeat pattern  :rolleyes:

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at some of the models from 12Z today, looks like the cold may come back in February but retrograde west a little.  The problem I see is unless we get a snow pack I doubt some of those temps could occur here.  Living here my entire life, if we don't have a fairly deep snow, we really struggle to get to 0 or below.  We have winters where we never get below 0 which is odd to me as the air is usually dry, but lacking that snow cover is big.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at some of the models from 12Z today, looks like the cold may come back in February but retrograde west a little.  The problem I see is unless we get a snow pack I doubt some of those temps could occur here.  Living here my entire life, if we don't have a fairly deep snow, we really struggle to get to 0 or below.  We have winters where we never get below 0 which is odd to me as the air is usually dry, but lacking that snow cover is big.  

We don't have much of an issue getting below zero here. Last year we got to near -10*F with just an inch OTG. 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at some of the models from 12Z today, looks like the cold may come back in February but retrograde west a little.  The problem I see is unless we get a snow pack I doubt some of those temps could occur here.  Living here my entire life, if we don't have a fairly deep snow, we really struggle to get to 0 or below.  We have winters where we never get below 0 which is odd to me as the air is usually dry, but lacking that snow cover is big.  

Today was a rare occurrence for me to get below zero without snow cover.  The PV may return in the middle of Feb and I think we all will have snow cover.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today was a rare occurrence for me to get below zero without snow cover.  The PV may return in the middle of Feb and I think we all will have snow cover.

Our coldest ever temp. is -34 and I think in Dec. of 1989 it was -29.  We can get really bad wind chills, just seems like cloud cover or a west wind usually minimizes how far we drop, at least in the last decade or so.  Our snow pack is virtually gone, just large piles and that in shaded areas.  Would love to get a storm, been pretty low here since the blizzard on Dec. 26-27, 2018.  I still have a drift in my backyard from that storm that just won't disappear even with the 50's we had on Sunday.  This weekend might make a lot of snow disappear in the Central Plains.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too much of a good thing???  Man, oh man, did the models trend towards a stout -PNA to open this month and likely lock over the next couple weeks.  The snow geese in the East are going to watching many rainers along the EC as a favorable and active storm track resides across our sub.  Now, the devil is in the details as to who will cash in on some snowstorms that are on the calendar during the first couple of weeks.  As impressive as the SER is trending, we are also seeing a deeper -EPO evolving along with high lat blocking.  I'm not quite sure yet which signal wins out but to see the Euro/EPS trend towards a -2/-3 standard deviation, one would anticipate that SER to be strong.  Unlike the "Resilient Ridge" from last Feb, this year will be different but will have similar influences on our Sub.

 

Looking at the JMA/CFSv2 Weeklies, they are pretty much in agreement that the main cold will be somewhat centered from the MW and points west throughout this month.  Here was the predicted temp forecast off the JMA weeklies...could believe this is an El Nino pattern???  Not a chance...welcome to the La Nina version of this year's pattern.  This is going to produce one hellova wet pattern as a massive battle zone sets up across the Central CONUS.

 

Week 1...torch...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201901.D3012_gl2.png

 

Week 2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201901.D3012_gl2.png\

 

 

 

Week 3-4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201901.D3012_gl2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

By all means, if the CFSv2 is right, Winter is over in the East and the "Central CONUS Show" will live up to its name.  This type of pattern is bound to create an extreme gradient pattern and coupled with an active STJ you can get an idea of where wintry systems will  track along the boundary.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201902.gif

 

 

As expected, the model filled in a more widespread area of AN precip and quite widespread across the CONUS....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every road here has at least 3-4 inches (outside of the interstates, which are snow covered but not as thick) of packed snow causing chaos for drivers even though conditions have improved.  This upcoming 50's and rain is going to cause an absolute mess.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not looking forward to this warm-up at all. :wacko: It will definitely ruined my beautiful glacier that I have otg. Hopefully, it will only warm up to be in the 30s and or low 40s, instead of 50s and rain. Colder air does arrive by mid week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every road here has at least 3-4 inches (outside of the interstates, which are snow covered but not as thick) of packed snow causing chaos for drivers even though conditions have improved. This upcoming 50's and rain is going to cause an absolute mess.

Do they not plow up there? You'd think with all the LES they'd be on top of that.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the Euro MJO is showing a trend into Phase 8 by Week 2, I'd imagine today's EPS trends colder and bleeds farther East.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Counting the dots looks like it wouldn't be in Ph-8 until 12th or so?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every road here has at least 3-4 inches (outside of the interstates, which are snow covered but not as thick) of packed snow causing chaos for drivers even though conditions have improved.  This upcoming 50's and rain is going to cause an absolute mess.  

Same here. And the dirt side roads are going to be a real bad mess. Kent county has only plow my road once and there are a few cars that at stuck on my road as well. But my road is paved. But as you said the main roads still have a lot of packed snow on them I am sure the county and city will dump a ton of salt once to warms up enough for the salt to work  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do they not plow up there? You'd think with all the LES they'd be on top of that.

It has been snowing and blowing not stop since Monday with many areas getting 20 to 30 inches of snow in the last week.  and this is with very cold temperatures,  You may not believe but most of the time our roads are bare payment also many states close the freeways (interstates) while that does not happen here in Michigan.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoping LOT is correct. would hate to see a big melt off

 

Bigger warm will come with increasing rain chances Monday as
stronger
shortwave and associated sfc low pass north of the area.
As guidance looks now, the
progged fast movement of the system
and narrow band of forcing with the cold
front should limit
rainfall amounts, which should help lessen threat of any bigger
hydro problems with the melting
snow pack.
 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hoping LOT is correct. would hate to see a big melt off

 

Bigger warm will come with increasing rain chances Monday as

stronger shortwave and associated sfc low pass north of the area.

As guidance looks now, the progged fast movement of the system

and narrow band of forcing with the cold front should limit

rainfall amounts, which should help lessen threat of any bigger

hydro problems with the melting snow pack.

 

 

East of LOT here, and fully expecting to kiss real winter good-bye for 7-10 days minimum. Every warm rainer has over-performed in this LRC

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...