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Possibility of SW Summer Monsoon?


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Four-Corner State Interests:

 

Interesting that the latest NMME and IMME seasonal and monthly mean forecasts for April to October 2014 are now available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ are suggesting a rather active SW Summer Monsoon.  This trend continues from last month’s run.

 

It will be interesting to see if NOAA's CPC upgrades their June-July-August precipitation forecasts from EC to above with this Thursday's Seasonal Outlook update:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png

 

 

 

 

 

P R I S M

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Four-Corner State Interests:

 

Interesting that the latest NMME and IMME seasonal and monthly mean forecasts for April to October 2014 are now available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ are suggesting a rather active SW Summer Monsoon.  This trend continues from last month’s run.[/size]

 

It will be interesting to see if NOAA's CPC upgrades their June-July-August precipitation forecasts from EC to above with this Thursday's Seasonal Outlook update:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png

Probably a hot summer in the NW if that is true. It seems like troughs in the NW kill the monsoon to some extent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Probably a hot summer in the NW if that is true. It seems like troughs in the NW kill the monsoon to some extent.

 

Troughs in the NW tend to cause the Four Corners High to be suppressed to the south and east of its usual location, creating dry southwesterly flow over the SW deserts for much of NV, CA, and AZ. This happened to an extreme in the very cool summer of 2010 and to a slightly lesser extent, the summer of 2011. The last couple of summers have had a very active summer monsoon, and there was a ton of monsoonal moisture over my area last summer.

 

If El Nino does develop, the SW monsoon will likely be more active this year with a much higher chance of moisture from decaying eastern Pacific tropical systems being entrained into the flow. Even areas in Socal west of the mountains may have an elevated chance of some summer showers and thunderstorms if everything comes together just right. There may even be more of a monsoonal moisture intrusion further north into Norcal, Oregon, Washington and other places further east at times this summer, as western ridging is more favored during an El Nino summer.

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With el nino in the works I tend to favor an active monsoon based on climo. But beyond that the general trend of not sending systems south should help the interior heat up more quickly and get the monsoon going. I would say about a 60-70% chance of an above average monsoon at this point based on these things but a lot of time for things to change still.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 4 weeks later...

As I recall, some of the big no-show SW monsoons have occurred with El Nino.  The idea has been that the enhanced subtropical jet shears off the northward flow of subtropical moisture. I don't expect this to be a record-setting EN, so I guess that anything is still possible.  I am not betting on a big monsoon this year however.

 

Newbie, whatever...

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As always, effects of ENSO are only best guesses. I could definitely see what you are saying happening, even if for now I am thinking otherwise. Thanks for the input!

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 1 month later...

Looks like things are progressing nicely. Looks like very strong +PDO conditions have set in along with the strengthening el nino. We have much above average water temperature along the entire west coast. This has fueled the strongest may Hurricane on record in the east pacific with Amanda at 155 mph right now.

 

Anyway all this goes to show we should have above average chances of getting some monsoonal moisture into the SW.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 1 month later...

It looks like everything is going well. Strong western high building in. Continued activity in the pacific, and a good fetch of moisture being drawn in now. Could be an exciting summer for the monsoon. I know there was a lot of flooding in southern Utah today.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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It looks like everything is going well. Strong western high building in. Continued activity in the pacific, and a good fetch of moisture being drawn in now. Could be an exciting summer for the monsoon. I know there was a lot of flooding in southern Utah today.

There were a few isolated heavy thunderstorms in the mountains of Socal this afternoon with the first influx of monsoonal moisture of the season. I still believe that this could be a really good monsoon season for the SW U.S. in general.

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A nice surge of moisture still looking likely all the way up to my area Wed-Fri or so.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I think we will get at least one moderate soaking Dan. How about you, any chance down there?

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I think we will get at least one moderate soaking Dan. How about you, any chance down there?

There is about a 20% chance of showers / t-storms for the mountain and high desert regions for the next couple of days, but no activity expected in the coastal and valley areas. However, the chance is iffy because most of the moisture plume is east of the region.

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Yeah I see that Chris. Lots of showers and storms in central Utah right now too.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 3 weeks later...

Kind of interesting...your monsoon actually sparked a shortwave which made it all the way over here in the form of a big MCS.

 

Actually delivered several inches of rain w/ hours of prolific lightning

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A mesoscale convective system. The simple answer is a giant blob of thunderstorms...but I think I posted a module in the met 101 section if you want more info.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Yep, what Black Hole said. This one was unique in that it remained surface-based well into the evening despite the lack of any previous theta-e pooling and modest, unidirectional shear

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