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Historic Jan '19 Cold Wave - Polar Vortex Intrusion


Tom

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Folks, it has been long believed that North America would experience Extreme Winter conditions this season and Mother Nature is about to deliver a ferocious, long duration, vicious cold snap next week.  We may be on the verge of re-writing History in parts of the Midwest/Upper Midwest.  Let's discuss this potential record setting event and not to mention, the visitation of the Polar Vortex across the GL's region.

 

 

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For the last few years, we've all been denied Winter while people on the other side of the world have enjoyed the vortex and been living the snow life. Do you all think this is a long term shift that could last seasons, or that this is just a blip of a few weeks? Or maybe we'll just finish out the winter nice and strong?

 

I'm curious, what does everyone think? Looking at snowfall for Madison climatology office, it seems like sometimes we get fluke years and sometimes it stays around for a while.

 

Oddly enough, even with this stretch of amazing snow, SE Wisconsin still has a long way to go to even make average snow fall for the year. The dry December was a huge set back and I think even if we finish out the year strong, it will be difficult to make average. December was a black hole of snow, and whe your snow season is just 4 months long, losing one month is catastrophic for averages and cumulative totals.

 

msn-sts-2018-19.gif

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GRR

 

 

-Life threatening cold air behind that system for the middle of
next week, with wind chills as low as 30 below and additional
lake effect snow showers.

 

I'm not a fan of extreme cold after enduring '94. Fortunately this won't be repeated for 7 wks like that winter.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Folks, it has been long believed that North America would experience Extreme Winter conditions this season and Mother Nature is about to deliver a ferocious, long duration, vicious cold snap next week.  We may be on the verge of re-writing History in parts of the Midwest/Upper Midwest.  Let's discuss this potential record setting event and not to mention, the visitation of the Polar Vortex across the GL's region.

 

Might have bust out some thermals for an extra layer next week. Got myself a cousin Eddie hat back in October too with the ear flaps. Gonna be like..

 

BINGO!.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Mitt should be safe from all-time record, if only because Dec was so mild there's too much warmth radiating from the open GL's

 

 

The mercury plunged to 51 degrees below zero on Feb. 9, 1934, in Vanderbilt, a few miles north of Gaylord. Pellston, which is northwest of Vanderbilt, claims a temperature of 53 degrees below zero was recorded there in 1933.

 

Unofficially hit -57F for a new record in '94 a bit SE of where I worked in Grayling. Fortunately it was Saturday morning and I was cozy at home in TC where it was a much more comfy -25F

 

(interesting that those official state record lows were during the hottest decade that also holds the MI high temp record!)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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For the last few years, we've all been denied Winter while people on the other side of the world have enjoyed the vortex and been living the snow life. Do you all think this is a long term shift that could last seasons, or that this is just a blip of a few weeks? Or maybe we'll just finish out the winter nice and strong?

 

I'm curious, what does everyone think? Looking at snowfall for Madison climatology office, it seems like sometimes we get fluke years and sometimes it stays around for a while.

 

Oddly enough, even with this stretch of amazing snow, SE Wisconsin still has a long way to go to even make average snow fall for the year. The dry December was a huge set back and I think even if we finish out the year strong, it will be difficult to make average. December was a black hole of snow, and whe your snow season is just 4 months long, losing one month is catastrophic for averages and cumulative totals.

 

attachicon.gifmsn-sts-2018-19.gif

 

I have been studying various aspects of the climate in general along with the Sun's behavior and it is my opinion we are in the midst of a Climatic shift across the globe.  Before this Winter season began, I had this idea the attention would turn onto our side of the Globe during the winter season.  Last year, it was the "Beast from the East" that hit Europe with brutal cold.  This year, it has been the North American/Hudson Bay Vortex which has dominated the weather pattern (except for Dec due to a major mid-warming SSW event).  Looking out farther, I think next year and possibly even a third year in a row, we will see some very cold temps across the Northern Hemisphere during the Winter/Spring seasons.  Could we see Back-to-Back cold winters in the U.S.???  Yes, I believe it's on the table next year as well.  We are entering a Solar Minimum and there are other variables coming into play that can play out a series of cold seasons over the next 10-20 years.

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You don't often see these maps, but when you do, it is absolutely fascinating.  I remember back in Jan '14 we had a "brief" visit by the Polar Vortex but this particular scenario may produce multiple impulses of rotating pieces and then the "mother load" comes down mid next week.  Pretty spectacular to see this evolve.  Not to mention, how difficult it is for nature to align everything just right to have a wx pattern as such come together.

 

The main vortex may track right over Wisconsin next week!  "Polar Vortex Party".....????

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Here are some all-time record cold lows across the region.  Let's see if a few spots exceed these temps next week.

 

Dxt03mCUwAEeG-w.jpg

IMO- anything pre concrete and roads should be thrown out. Say before 1920. Most of the records listed above are now measured at Airports - some airports being some of the largest in the Lower 48, if not the world. What does an airport consist off? Concrete and lots of it with an ASOS sensor usually located in the MIDDLE of the concrete to more centrally report the weather. Where was temp data collected pre Airports? Well here in DSM in the late 1800's it was taken at Fort Des Moines in a river valley of all places. I can't think of a colder place for sinking cold air in the midst of an Arctic intrusion than river valley!!! Certainly much colder than a modern airport. For DSM- the -26F set in FEB 1996 should be the modern record and anything pre 1920 should be considered a Pioneer record-- much like MPX does - or did , it's been 20 years since I lived their.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX for the cold wave uses "unprecedented" in their AFD. One of the more respected TV mets here last night had a graphic -- "Coldest Shot in 50 years?"  Personally don't know hot it can be colder than late Jan / early FEB 1996 with with back to back high temps of -9F and lows of -24 and -26F on the 2nd and 3rd of FEB. If anything close to that happens say highs around -5F to -6F and lows -20F or colder I will be shocked. That 1996 cold wave was the coldest shot I've ever experienced. Not that it can't happen again- just leary.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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IMO- anything pre concrete and roads should be thrown out. Say before 1920. Most of the records listed above are now measured at Airports - some airports being some of the largest in the Lower 48, if not the world. What does an airport consist off? Concrete and lots of it with an ASOS sensor usually located in the MIDDLE of the concrete to more centrally report the weather. Where was temp data collected pre Airports? Well here in DSM in the late 1800's it was taken at Fort Des Moines in a river valley of all places. I can't think of a colder place for sinking cold air in the midst of an Arctic intrusion than river valley!!! Certainly much colder than a modern airport. For DSM- the -26F set in FEB 1996 should be the modern record and anything pre 1920 should be considered a Pioneer record-- much like MPX does - or did , it's been 20 years since I lived their.

Good points Grizz and makes a lot of sense when comparing where/how they measured temps back in the day.  Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how cold it does get next week and if we can rival some of the all-time record lows.

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Interesting tidbit from LOT this morning...

 

 

 

To put some perspective on this potential cold, only eight times
since 1872 has Chicago recorded sub-zero highs on at least two
consecutive days
, the most recent being early February 1996.
Additionally, 850hPa temps of -30C are a rarity for this region,
with central IL sounding climatology dating back to 1949 indicating
around only a handful of occurrences.
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IMO- anything pre concrete and roads should be thrown out. Say before 1920. Most of the records listed above are now measured at Airports - some airports being some of the largest in the Lower 48, if not the world. What does an airport consist off? Concrete and lots of it with an ASOS sensor usually located in the MIDDLE of the concrete to more centrally report the weather. Where was temp data collected pre Airports? Well here in DSM in the late 1800's it was taken at Fort Des Moines in a river valley of all places. I can't think of a colder place for sinking cold air in the midst of an Arctic intrusion than river valley!!! Certainly much colder than a modern airport. For DSM- the -26F set in FEB 1996 should be the modern record and anything pre 1920 should be considered a Pioneer record-- much like MPX does - or did , it's been 20 years since I lived their.

Just to add to this the Official record all time low here at Grand Rapids Michigan was -24° on February 13 and 14 1899 the unofficial record reported low here was -33° on December 24th 1872 Over at Lansing were official records go all the way back to 1864 the all time record low there is -37° on February 2nd 1868 there was also a -33 since 1950 the record low at Lansing is -25° hapening several times the last time was on Feb 2 1994. Now on the flip side of the old vs the newer records in 1994 on January 19th the morning that GR fell to -22° here at my house I had a reading of -20 but I live about 15 miles closer to Lake Michigan and that morning I had light snow falling.

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DMX for the cold wave uses "unprecedented" in their AFD. One of the more respected TV mets here last night had a graphic -- "Coldest Shot in 50 years?"  Personally don't know hot it can be colder than late Jan / early FEB 1996 with with back to back high temps of -9F and lows of -24 and -26F on the 2nd and 3rd of FEB. If anything close to that happens say highs around -5F to -6F and lows -20F or colder I will be shocked. That 1996 cold wave was the coldest shot I've ever experienced. Not that it can't happen again- just leary.

I still remember when that occurred even though I didn't experience it! I was in Central America for around 1 mo. right at that time enjoying tropical wx, & luckily missed that brutal cold though it would've been neat to experience it one time! I had family members keep track of the weather for me while I was gone. They probably didn't do as good of a job though. IMO extremely cold & snowy winters like the late '70s could be a once in a lifetime event because recently I saw temperature charts for my area that showed more days & hrs below 0° in those winters than in anytime on record almost. Guess I should try to check that out again, but takes to much time.
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I have been studying various aspects of the climate in general along with the Sun's behavior and it is my opinion we are in the midst of a Climatic shift across the globe.  Before this Winter season began, I had this idea the attention would turn onto our side of the Globe during the winter season.  Last year, it was the "Beast from the East" that hit Europe with brutal cold.  This year, it has been the North American/Hudson Bay Vortex which has dominated the weather pattern (except for Dec due to a major mid-warming SSW event).  Looking out farther, I think next year and possibly even a third year in a row, we will see some very cold temps across the Northern Hemisphere during the Winter/Spring seasons.  Could we see Back-to-Back cold winters in the U.S.???  Yes, I believe it's on the table next year as well.  We are entering a Solar Minimum and there are other variables coming into play that can play out a series of cold seasons over the next 10-20 years.

I could see it warming back up after next week's cold as I have often seen it do that including just 1 yr ago in January. Nature is balancing out our mild December. Haven't checked the models & long range forecasts today. What are you seeing temp-wise beyond next week into February? Thanks in advance!
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Lows next week are predicted to be near the -20s here IMBY. I believe the record is -21F set back in 1984 on January 21st.. Going for all time record low. I am more interested in this arctic airmass than the clipper tbh. :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NWS GRB

 

 

Temperatures plummet Monday night with lows in the single digits
below to the teens below zero. Highs will be in the single digits
below zero, except across far northeast Wisconsin where temperatures
may climb a few degrees above zero. The warmest spot may be across
northern Door County where the high may be around 5 above. Conditions
on Wednesday morning will be brutal with wind chill readings of 35
below to 50 below zero
are anticipated as air temperatures are expected
to fall into the teens below to middle 20s below zero. Wind chill
readings again Thursday morning will be in the 35 below to 50 below
zero. These conditions will probably lead to closures of schools and
other public entities. Wind chill readings this low can produce
frost bite on exposed skin within 10 minutes.
Conditions will be
slightly better on Friday with wind chill readings of 25 below to
35 below zero.
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My highs might remain below zero w night time lows well below zero if all verifies. Geez! BRRR.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I could see it warming back up after next week's cold as I have often seen it do that including just 1 yr ago in January. Nature is balancing out our mild December. Haven't checked the models & long range forecasts today. What are you seeing temp-wise beyond next week into February? Thanks in advance!

There is a "pullback" coming towards the later parts of Week 2 which will relax the jet across the CONUS but with a deep snow pack across the MW temps should stay below freezing unless a storm tracks to the north.  However, I think this is transitory period which will allow for systems to start coming out of the Rockies/SW.  There are growing signals for an active SW Flow pattern during Week 2 of Feb and if the Euro Weeklies are right, along with the JMA Weeklies, the middle/end of Feb could turn very cold once again.  In fact, the Euro Weeklies are suggesting a similar 500mb set up by Day 15-25 and may usher in another severe outbreak of cold across the same areas.

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This is the Feb 1996 summary for INL. The all time mn state low was set nearby in Tower at -60f on the 2nd. In five days after temps went from record cold to over +40f for an 80+ degree temp change. All with deep snowcover.

nature is fully capable of drastic warmups regardless of snowpack.

That’s the winter I remember. I was in college in Eau Claire and our temps were similar- the pipes froze in our rental house and my car wouldn’t even think about starting. I’ve never been so cold in my life. Lows -40 and highs about -25.

 

I seem to recall the windchill being -100ish, but that was with the “old” windchill chart I think

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This is the Feb 1996 summary for INL. The all time mn state low was set nearby in Tower at -60f on the 2nd. In five days after temps went from record cold to over +40f for an 80+ degree temp change. All with deep snowcover.

nature is fully capable of drastic warmups regardless of snowpack.

 

Agree 100% with you. Just have to look back to our last PV visit in Jan of '14 on the 6th had -41F WC and 4 days later it was raining and 40F

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There is a "pullback" coming towards the later parts of Week 2 which will relax the jet across the CONUS but with a deep snow pack across the MW temps should stay below freezing unless a storm tracks to the north.  However, I think this is transitory period which will allow for systems to start coming out of the Rockies/SW.  There are growing signals for an active SW Flow pattern during Week 2 of Feb and if the Euro Weeklies are right, along with the JMA Weeklies, the middle/end of Feb could turn very cold once again.  In fact, the Euro Weeklies are suggesting a similar 500mb set up by Day 15-25 and may usher in another severe outbreak of cold across the same areas.

Thanks again. I didn’t know you had started a February thread & should’ve checked that out first.
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Cold hurts

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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