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Historic Jan '19 Cold Wave - Polar Vortex Intrusion


Tom

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Per the winds- her was DMX take on them here for Thursday Morning ;

 

An interesting plot twist for Thursday morning is the placement of a
sfc high over the DMX CWA. This would lighten winds to 5 mph or
less, but clear skies... making radiational cooling plausible. If
this scenario plays out, Thursday morning temperatures may need to
be lowered another 5 or so degrees... but wind speeds also
decreased... which would keep wind chill values near the actual air
temperatures.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Forgot to say this the other day when I saw a post from you, but welcome to the forum! Always nice to have another MN member here. Good luck the next few days up there.

Well by Wednesday afternoon I should be in Phoenix. But I have to drive to Fargo first, which may be an adventure through cold and blowing snow...

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This will be one real cold arctic airmass arriving. Highs below zero is a little too cold!! ^_^

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GRAVELROAD-280119-063805.jpg

The international.falls reading will be nothing compared to some valley locations up there

Yep- the COOP observer at Embarrass has retired. As so is Tower. The new king of Cold id Cotton,MN--- I don't know if this COOP or not and seems to be lacking some QC, but they have used Cotton before for low temps in MN..  -56F. Only 4F from tying the MN record if its was verified. 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This will be one real cold arctic airmass arriving. Highs below zero is a little too cold!! ^_^

As I get older, I still love the snow but I just don't like or handle the cold very well.  This is one airmass that I am glad is missing us to the east.  I can see why people move to the south to escape that type of cold.  

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As I get older, I still love the snow but I just don't like or handle the cold very well.  This is one airmass that I am glad is missing us to the east.  I can see why people move to the south to escape that type of cold.  

I agree...a little too cold. They are saying it hasn't been that cold since 1994. TBH, I am excited to see if we break the all time record low temp here of -21F set back in 1984. Also, never felt this cold airmass b4, so it should be an adventure for me I guess.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I agree...a little too cold. They are saying it hasn't been that cold since 1994. TBH, I am excited to see if we break the all time record low temp here of -21F set back in 1984. Also, never felt this cold airmass b4, so it should be an adventure for me I guess.

I can't even imagine those that would have to work outside in those conditions, police, firefighters, first responders, construction, etc.

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Here’s the DVN’s AFD from this morning:

 

“When this wind combines with an extremely cold Arctic air mass building south with the high, dangerous, life-threatening wind chills will result, especially from Tuesday night through Thursday morning. The current forecast has Tuesday and Wednesday night lows ranging from around -15 F along and south of Highway 34, to around -30 F along the Highway 20 corridor. Forecast highs for Wednesday current range from around -5 F over northeast Missouri, to around -15 F along Highway 20. This will be enough to produce dangerous wind chills ranging from -30 F across the south, to -55 F across the north! If winds are able to go calm Wednesday night and Thursday morning, there is the potential temperatures could drop more than forecast.

 

A Wind Chill Watch remains in effect for the region from Tuesday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. Upgrades to these headlines are expected soon.

 

Bottom line...This is a very dangerous, and life-threatening situation. Many impacts are likely, including cars not starting, water main breaks, frozen water pipes/pipes bursting, very quick onset of frostbite and the potential for hypothermia. Additionally, snow covered roadways are not likely to improve as treatments and chemicals will no longer work properly with such cold temperatures. Now is the time to prepare and take proper precautions!”

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I can't even imagine those that would have to work outside in those conditions, police, firefighters, first responders, construction, etc.

True...but if it is that cold, then, hopefully, they do not work and take the day off I would imagine.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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True...but if it is that cold, then, hopefully, they do not work and take the day off I would imagine.

I'll take the bitter cold over the nausating heat/humiidty ANYDAY. You can always put on more clothes but can only take so many off. And yes- I used to work outdoors as an Electrical Lineman. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'll take the bitter cold over the nausating heat/humiidty ANYDAY. You can always put on more clothes but can only take so many off. And yes- I used to work outdoors as an Electrical Lineman. 

I hate the humidity. I don't mind dry heat. You can always go in a shade and cool off if its dry heat.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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With DVN lowering the forecast low for Cedar Rapids to -31 on Wednesday night, we look to break the record for the coldest temperature ever recorded in Cedar Rapids. 

 

I remember the January 2009 cold here. I can't find wind chills in the records for that date, but if I remember right, the lowest wind chill I remember seeing in Cedar Rapids that day was somewhere around -55. 

Jan-15-Record-Cold-CR.png

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Good stuff:

 

HISTORIC COLD EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

 

.Wind chills are expected to fall to 25 below to 35 below zero

tonight and Tuesday morning. Dangerous wind chills of 45 below to

65 below zero are expected for most of the period from Tuesday

night through Thursday morning. This is a life-threatening

situation for those spending any prolonged period outdoors without

proper clothing. A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from Tuesday

through Thursday morning area wide.

 

Record low temperatures are possible in the Twin Cities Wednesday

morning and Thursday morning. The record for Wednesday is

30 below and the record for Thursday is 27 below

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Back in the day I had an ice house on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN. MN peeps know this lake. Short story - dude that was switching my propane  tanks out in the 96' cold wave - wind chills near -80F at the time (pre New formula) said he remembered in 83' doing work in -100F wind chills. No joke. If you do the research - you will see where he was coming from. He warned us that time to leave, or be on your own. It was fun. Not fun in morning. The door on the fish house next morning needed to be JAMMED open due to condensation. Cars started if you had them backed into the wind, otherwise- no luck. True story.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Back in the day I had an ice house on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN. MN peeps know this lake. Short story - dude that was switching my propane  tanks out in the 96' cold wave - wind chills near -80F at the time (pre New formula) said he remembered in 83' doing work in -100F wind chills. No joke. If you do the research - you will see where he was coming from. He warned us that time to leave, or be on your own. It was fun. Not fun in morning.

 

I’ve been ice fishing on Mille Lacs twice. That’s why i don’t think I’ll ever go ice fishing again. I don’t think I’ve ever been as cold in my life. Didn’t help we didn’t have any heaters, but I digress. There’s something about that lake in the middle of winter that just makes it feel so much colder than it really might be. Totally believe the story from ‘83.

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Back in the day I had an ice house on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN. MN peeps know this lake. Short story - dude that was switching my propane tanks out in the 96' cold wave - wind chills near -80F at the time (pre New formula) said he remembered in 83' doing work in -100F wind chills. No joke. If you do the research - you will see where he was coming from. He warned us that time to leave, or be on your own. It was fun. Not fun in morning. The door on the fish house next morning needed to be JAMMED open due to condensation. Cars started if you had them backed into the wind, otherwise- no luck. True story.

Speaking of new formula. Why did they change that anyway? Always wondered that.
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Speaking of new formula. Why did they change that anyway? Always wondered that.

I believe scientists changed the calculation because of the way they tested it. Something about them doing tests on a water bottle for a while, and then they changed to actually tests on humans. Maybe I’m way off, but they basically changed the science on testing it, which changed the way it was calculated.

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So this may be a bit off topic, but I'm curious none the less. Here in Wisconsin, the Governor has issused a State of Emergency for the upcoming days because of the snow and extreme historic cold. If you were a business owner, how would you handle this? Specifically would you shut down for a few days? Allow call ins because of the weather? 

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So this may be a bit off topic, but I'm curious none the less. Here in Wisconsin, the Governor has issused a State of Emergency for the upcoming days because of the snow and extreme historic cold. If you were a business owner, how would you handle this? Specifically would you shut down for a few days? Allow call ins because of the weather?

Probably depends what kind of business you run, as well as the employees you have. Will it be an issue to show down for a day? How far do people have to drive? What do they do during the day? I definitely think there will be a lot more leeway with call-ins, but it’s more of a situation-by-situation thing.

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Here is the school closing situation for Minnesota at this time. If I had a school age child I wouldn't want them on a rural bus route by Tuesday afternoon. The margin for dangerous conditions for something like a mechanical failure is too small.

I do agree with that. I’m 100% on board with all cancelations in this stuff. All it takes is one thing to go wrong for things to get bad in a very short time. The potential danger is not worth it. Just making it up another day is a much option than putting kids in danger.

 

On that note, after the temps seemed to not want to drop much earlier, they continue to drop quick. Down to 0 now. Going to be very interesting to see how long we stay below. The only question, I think, will be if we can warm enough during the day on Thursday to go above 0. Our temps have been colder than guidance has predicted over each of the last few days/nights, so I’d side with it not going above 0 (current forecast is -2), but we shall see.

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DSM AFD = not messing around-

 

Impacts:
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR!!! This is
the coldest air many of us will have ever experienced. This is
not a case of "meh, it`s Iowa during winter and this cold
happens." These are record-breaking cold air temperatures, with
wind chill values not seen in the 21st century in Iowa.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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We’re already at our high temp for the day at -8F, falling to -16F by later this afternoon. Low tonight of -29F with wind gusts to 30mph. I’m supposed to fly to Chicago tomorrow morning but we’ll see. Seems like a good day to stay inside tomorrow with a high of -15F.

Holy cow!  The kind of temps you guys up north are going to experience is truly spectacular.  Once in a lifetime kinda stuff right there.  Stay warm and safe there bud.  Hope you stocked up on wood!

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Speaking of new formula. Why did they change that anyway? Always wondered that.

They changed it because the old formula used the 10M wind speed in the calculation. Winds today are still measured at 10Meters, but the new formula uses a regression of the wind  speed from 10M to 2M -- the human face.  From WIKI-

North American and United Kingdom wind chill index

In November 2001, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom implemented a new wind chill index developed by scientists and medical experts on the Joint Action Group for Temperature Indices (JAG/TI).[5][6][7] It is determined by iterating a model of skin temperature under various wind speeds and temperatures using standard engineering correlations of wind speed and heat transfer rate. Heat transfer was calculated for a bare face in wind, facing the wind, while walking into it at 1.4 metres per second (5.0 km/h; 3.1 mph). The model corrects the officially measured wind speed to the wind speed at face height, assuming the person is in an open field.[8]

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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-2 here. HRRR shows temps being stable for the next few hours until starting to really drop in the early afternoon. The NWS would agree with this as well.

 

Current forecast right now is -27 tonight, with wind chills down to -50. Followed up by a high of -14 tomorrow, and then -30 tomorrow night. I would agree with that as of right now.

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Well, the title on this thread reads correct because here in the Detroit Metro area, wcf has a chance to hit -50F on Wednesday. Highs between -8F to -3F and lows between -21F to -16F in my area and not that far off down in the city of Detroit.

 

Btw: State of Emergency has been declared for Detroit due to extreme historic cold coming.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wow! NWS now has Thursday’s morning low to -43F. Two nights below -40 in a row. Beyond brutal.

 

attachicon.gifB4C3F1AE-EFD0-40D6-9B41-B20F55C05C00.png

 

Thursday looks warm tho  :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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