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Jan- February Mid-long Range Discussion

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#51
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 22 February 2019 - 08:41 AM

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Starting to get interesting. Long way out. GFS digs secondary clipper SE by 200 miles. CMS dissipates with coastal. Lots of cold air heading SE.


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#52
Phil

Posted 22 February 2019 - 02:37 PM

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I think we might have one more left in us. The pattern progression, to this point, doesn’t jive with those that have historically produced snowless Mar/Apr periods.
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#53
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 24 February 2019 - 02:43 AM

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A system in the Thursday-Friday window to watch. Looks like another high plains blizzard, then, much below normal temperatures.

The latest I can remember a major snowstorm in March was the "Superstorm" March 13-16 '93.

Blizzard warnings were issued for Atlanta Ga. First time in it's history.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#54
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 25 February 2019 - 02:40 AM

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Day 5-10 still look good for potential winter weather. Euro most aggressive. Nevertheless, near record cold NW and northern tier.

A dynamic pattern developing. Temps 8-12F below average. With late season Polar Vortex.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#55
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 26 February 2019 - 01:27 AM

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Looks like an active period Feb 28-Mar 6th. A 1-3" snow event Thursday night, followed by a possible Gulf of Mexico low first of week.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#56
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 26 February 2019 - 04:25 AM

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#57
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 26 February 2019 - 07:10 AM

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12Z NAM coming in line with Euro. This will be the first volley.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#58
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 26 February 2019 - 12:53 PM

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12Z Euro tries to transfer energy off SC coast, moves precip south of metro, the low lingers for 24 hours. 18Z NAM has doubled down and expanded precip fields. We may need to watch this. It could over perform.

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#59
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 27 February 2019 - 02:27 AM

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Looks like it is game on for DC/Bal. Thursday night looks like snow/sleet. 1-2 most likely. This system lingers setting up strong CAD into Saturday with lingering snow/rain showers.

The main event is Sunday/Monday. Epic cold Midwest/High planes digs south and east. Subtropical high noses into eastern Gulf. Wave develops off Texas coast. Good formula. It is just a timing issue.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#60
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 27 February 2019 - 09:38 AM

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12Z run sets up a band of moderate to heavy snow Thursday night. Accumulations 3-5". This would nesesitate a Winter Storm Watch. I'm sure the mets will wait for another run.

The Sunday/Monday system is borderline. If 500mb trof would wait 8 hrs before amplification, I-95 corridor would get boomed. Plenty of time.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#61
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 28 February 2019 - 03:44 AM

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Could be a great weekend. 06Z GFS total snowfall SLR. Exact track and intensity of second storm yet to be determined.



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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#62
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 28 February 2019 - 07:13 AM

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12Z NAM in flux outside 54hrs. Heartland storm divided into two impulses. Thats OK. Monster trof does not clear East Coast till 126 hrs. Expect this model to settle down next 24hrs.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#63
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 28 February 2019 - 08:17 AM

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12Z models show low pressure passing south of DC/Baltimore 96hrs. Heavy snow band meanders 50 miles north and south each run.

We are still in the game.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#64
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 02:56 AM

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00-06Z GFS setting up heavy snow band over DC.

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#65
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 March 2019 - 04:06 AM

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GFS doubles down on DC micro-blizzard...


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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."