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Current Obs and Synoptic Banter

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#1
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 01:57 AM

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Temp 15.8, looking at the Arctic front just entering West Virginia.

Max snow PAC showing up well on IR along with cold air. Residual surface moisture and convection could produce snow showers with passage.

Attached File  2019013009_metars_dtw.gif   51.6KB   0 downloads

Attached File  IMGi_0.jpg   125.42KB   0 downloads

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#2
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 06:08 AM

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Interestingly enough, the trees appear to be glazed over here this morning, so I wonder if that affects how they handle any wind this afternoon. Winds already gusting to around 25mph out of the south, and LWX says gusts could reach 60mph in some of the squalls (or even outside them in some places).

Advected from 14.5*F to 24.1*F in 1hr. One of the coldest “warm sectors” since the one in February 2015.
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#3
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 06:48 AM

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Easy to see where the snow fell yesterday. We where on the edge... schools closed.

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#4
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 07:56 AM

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Hints of a squall..




Attached File  20190130_155402_BREF1_gray.png   391.85KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#5
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 08:17 AM

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Just had a heavy gust here right out of the south. Blew a thick cloud of snow off the ground and high into the air.

Up to 31.1/15 ahead of the front/squall.

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#6
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 08:46 AM

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Peak wind SSW 31mph temp 30.4F

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#7
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 08:53 AM

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Nation Weather Service BWI just issued special weather statement for developing squall.
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#8
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:28 AM

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Squall dried up a bit before it got here, but still solid SN with my station registering a peak gust of 42mph.

Temp drop was legit too...33.8 to 22.5 in 40 minutes.

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#9
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:29 AM

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Woah, some big gusts developing out west. Seeing a number of stations on wunderground between 45-70mph as that huge mass of cold air advects in.

Should arrive here between 2-3pm, I think.
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#10
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:31 AM

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Snowshoe, WV recorded a 70mph gust with an ambient temperature of -1.7*F. Yikes! 🥶
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#11
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:33 AM

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Wow, I couldn't turn away. Still 1 mile in light snow and blowing snow, with the sun out.

Squall produced 1/8 mile in SN blowing snow. Peak wind 47mph, .5 new snow.

Temp 22.4F
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#12
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 10:47 AM

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Snow has ended. Wind West 23 G34.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#13
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 11:14 AM

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Looks like BWI reported a gust to 48mph, with a snow squall and blowing snow. Dulles reported blowing snow as well.

The wind front is moving into Leesburg now. Should arrive at Dulles by ~ 245pm +/- 15 minutes.
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#14
Phil

Posted 30 January 2019 - 02:21 PM

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Decent gustage with that wind front here. Hit 48mph from the WNW once the sun came out and destabilized us a little bit. Stronger than during the snow squall.

https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

Temp down to 16.9 and falling fast as the sun sets, dewpoint down to -2, still gusting to ~ 30-35mph. Chilly!
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#15
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 30 January 2019 - 11:59 PM

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4.8 winds have calmed....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#16
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 31 January 2019 - 02:05 AM

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3.2 calm winds...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#17
Phil

Posted 31 January 2019 - 11:07 AM

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Low was 6.6*F here around 3AM. We decoupled briefly around then, but the NW winds blow very hard in my area, and they returned quickly around 430AM, bumping us back up to 7.7*F.

Dewpoint bottomed out at -13.2*F. Wind chill -17*F.
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#18
Phil

Posted 31 January 2019 - 02:10 PM

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Looking back at my records, the dewpoint of -13.2*F this morning was the lowest I’ve recorded since the -17.8*F reading back in February 2015 (when we literally *advected* down to -1.4*F with almost no snowpack and 65mph gusts all night long..man that was such an amazing event).

Last January, our lowest dewpoint was -6.6*F. So this airmass was actually drier. But we were able to decouple longer last year, and drop to 2.8*F as a result. A bit too much wind this time to maximize cooling.
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#19
Phil

Posted 31 January 2019 - 02:21 PM

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Strike that, l also apparently recorded a -20.8*F dewpoint with the reinforcing shot in February 2015. That was one of my favorite months of all time..endless high Arctic violence.

The Valentine’s Day squall that dropped 3-5” in 1 hour in some places (just 1” here) along with thunder/lightning followed by the Arctic front which produced frequent gusts between 60-70mph, and plunged temps from 30*F down to between 0 to -10*F over just 7hrs was something to behold. Also was the most incredible ground blizzard I can remember, even more insane than February 10th, 2010. Apparently even 1” of snow is enough to produce whiteout conditions.

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#20
Phil

Posted 31 January 2019 - 07:46 PM

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Down to 12.7*F as of 10:50pm with calm winds. The airmass has moderated quite a bit, but we’re radiating very efficiently to make up for it.

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#21
Phil

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:38 AM

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Currently 17/8 and snowing smoke. Dusting.
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#22
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 February 2019 - 04:57 AM

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Looks like precip fields setting up a little SE than progged.... Still 3S-

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#23
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:04 AM

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We have dyndrites... 21/2S-

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#24
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 February 2019 - 05:39 AM

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Finally.. 3/4S- temp 14.2 wind NE 7mph...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#25
Phil

Posted 01 February 2019 - 12:20 PM

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What do you know, we have 1.1” on the ground with snow still falling at 330pm. Much more than I thought we’d see.

Brings my seasonal total to ~ 16”. Now we get to enjoy a two week thaw before winter returns.
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#26
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 February 2019 - 01:28 AM

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Few thin cirrus, 6.1F wind calm...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#27
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 February 2019 - 03:11 AM

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Fog developing, calm winds temp up to 7.8F

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#28
dairyd

Posted 02 February 2019 - 07:17 AM

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cold air seems a bit stubborn to scour out, will it warm up today as planned? Telekenetics seem to point to the cold river flowing more to the west than the east for the forseeable future.  But all of that could change on whether the pacific ridge retrogrades or not and how the greenland block matures.  interesting times.


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#29
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 February 2019 - 08:28 AM

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12z NAM introducing freezing drizzle Sunday night early Monday for DC area. Morning cummute could be influenced, Image below.


12z GFS sets the table at 144hrs.

Attached File  ZR_000-048_0000.gif   89.99KB   0 downloads

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png   195.53KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#30
Phil

Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:15 AM

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Low of 11.8*F this morning. Some high clouds around prevented us from reaching the single digits again.
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#31
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 03 February 2019 - 10:50 AM

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19z temp 43.6 light NE wind. Coastal trof developing...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#32
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 05 February 2019 - 01:45 AM

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Today will be max warm air advection in mid-Atlantic. Temps this morning 3-4 degrees below prog. 30 OVC....

Attached File  2019020509_metars_bwi.gif   43.34KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#33
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 05 February 2019 - 05:42 AM

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250 - SCT welcome the torch....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#34
iFred

Posted 05 February 2019 - 09:30 AM

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Thank you guys for getting that high to shift to the west and help it pump another SE ridge. Nice to have a couple weeks of snow and cold to look forward too in Seattle



#35
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 05 February 2019 - 11:48 AM

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Thank you guys for getting that high to shift to the west and help it pump another SE ridge. Nice to have a couple weeks of snow and cold to look forward too in Seattle


It is what it is.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#36
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 05 February 2019 - 12:02 PM

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Attached File  2019020519_metars_alb.gif   38.8KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#37
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 05 February 2019 - 12:29 PM

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There was a time I arrived at GSO temp was 60.f By 12z it was 7f it was known as "the presidents day storm"....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#38
Phil

Posted 05 February 2019 - 01:33 PM

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Thank you guys for getting that high to shift to the west and help it pump another SE ridge. Nice to have a couple weeks of snow and cold to look forward too in Seattle


Haha, you’re welcome. BTW, can you please merge this thread with the main 2019 thread so we have one timeline?

That’s your cold/snow delivery fee..if you don’t do this you’ll get screwed at the last minute. ;)

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#39
Phil

Posted 05 February 2019 - 01:36 PM

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Beautiful day! High of 70.5*F here.

Hard to believe it was 5*F with howling winds and blowing snow a week ago.

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#40
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 27 February 2019 - 07:10 AM

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Bitter NE wind 10-15. Temp 31F. Modified Continental Polar air starting to funnel down.

Attached File  2019022715_metars_bwi.gif   40.44KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#41
Phil

Posted 27 February 2019 - 04:56 PM

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Bitter NE wind 10-15. Temp 31F. Modified Continental Polar air starting to funnel down.

2019022715_metars_bwi.gif


Lucky. Very different here..high temp of 38.3*F was just reached here 30mins ago, no wind at all. Dewpoint still 30*F.

We’re very sheltered from E/NE winds, here so advecting that cool/dry air in is tough when it’s coming from that direction.

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#42
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 28 February 2019 - 09:00 AM

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Cold north winds 10-15 mph setting the stage for wintry weather. Some observations. Temps approaching 65F southern Va. They are about to get backdoored.

Got to love March. High sun angles puts thermal dynamics in overdrive. The atmosphere heats from the bottom and cools from the top. Volatility, let's hope severe weather is below average this year.

250 -SCT here. Hope clouds arrive after sunset. A little radiational cooling can only help.

Attached File  2019022816_metars_bwi.gif   42.72KB   0 downloads

Attached File  IMG_0.jpg   413.85KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#43
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 28 February 2019 - 09:08 AM

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Almost forgot. NWS says high temp 47F Saturday in Baltimore. Weather channel says 50F. Let's see how that works our for them...

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#44
Phil

Posted 28 February 2019 - 11:13 AM

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Cold north winds 10-15 mph setting the stage for wintry weather. Some observations. Temps approaching 65F southern Va. They are about to get backdoored.

Got to love March. High sun angles puts thermal dynamics in overdrive. The atmosphere heats from the bottom and cools from the top. Volatility, let's hope severe weather is below average this year.


Boo. Hiss.

I love severe weather. Not just because it’s exciting, dynamic, and unpredictable, but also because I work in landscaping/arboriculture, and storm damage is my primary source of income during the summer months.
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#45
Phil

Posted 28 February 2019 - 11:16 AM

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Meanwhile, finally getting some cool/dry advection in here after a long wait. Wind flipped N/NW this morning and dewpoints began crashing..down from 32 to 20. Temp is still in the mid-40s, but wet bulbs are declining.

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#46
Phil

Posted 28 February 2019 - 12:10 PM

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Boo. Hiss.
I love severe weather. Not just because it’s exciting, dynamic, and unpredictable, but also because I work in landscaping/arboriculture, and storm damage is my primary source of income during the summer months.


You never had a realative sucked up. Such is life in the trialor park...

You have? Very sorry to hear, if so. Thankfully we rarely see large tornadoes like that here.

The vast majority of our severe weather consists of microburst activity, straight line winds, and the occasional damaging hail event.

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#47
Andie

Posted 28 February 2019 - 05:53 PM

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[quote name="Wxmidatlantic" post="450823" timestamp="1551381678"][quote name="Phil" post="450816" timestamp="1551381236"]Boo. Hiss.
I love severe weather. Not just because it’s exciting, dynamic, and unpredictable, but also because I work in landscaping/arboriculture, and storm damage is my primary source of income during the summer months.[/quote
You never had a realative sucked up. Such is life in the trialor park...[/quote]



Had a tree ripped up right in front of my car, and stood under a funnel cloud. But no lost relatives....but it's early days still.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#48
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 08:45 AM

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Today we find out the winner of the great 48hr temp forecast challenge. NWS 47F, weather channel 50F..

Coming up on 17Z. Temp 35.4F.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#49
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 10:15 AM

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We have reached max heating. Temp 37.4F 40 at BWI.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."


#50
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 02 March 2019 - 12:16 PM

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21Z 39.8 43 BWI...

Did not work out well.

Attached File  2019030220_metars_bwi.gif   42.5KB   0 downloads

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."